The future of the industry

The baseline scenario for Ethiopia is "low base, slow growth": the priority will remain with state lotteries and socially neutral formats (instant draws, promotional lotteries).

Online casinos are unlikely to receive a local license in the foreseeable future; a narrow register for offline/online sports betting with strict KYC/AML and limits is more realistic.

Drivers - distribution of smartphones and mobile payments, interest in football and running; barriers - currency control, telecom restrictions, unpredictability of law enforcement.

Possible tracks are (1) status quo with spot pilots and lottery digitalization; (2) moderate liberalization of sports betting and fantasy formats; (3) conservative rollback when compliance is enhanced.

For operators, the implemented strategy is "compliance-first": local partner, transparent payments, responsible play tools, light products and integration with mobile wallets.

Without a clear license and payment infrastructure, jump growth is not expected.