The future of the industry

Until 2030, growth in Rwanda will be driven by a "mobile-first" model: rates via USSD, web and app applications, instant deposits/payments via mobile wallets and biometric KYC based on national ID.

The regulatory focus shifts to full speed accounting and real-time reporting, game limits, self-exclusion and age-verification.

Structurally, sports and live markets lead; additional drivers are virtual sports, fantasy and esports, as well as localization of interfaces (kinyarwanda) and micro-betting.

Channel forecast: retail retains a role in regional centers, but the share of online is growing thanks to cheap mobile Internet and the fintech ecosystem.

Tax policy is likely to remain predictable, with an emphasis on expanding the base by legalizing traffic rather than raising rates.

Key risks - offshore competition and payment "gray" schemes; market responses - branding, partnerships with sports leagues and anti-fraud analytics.

In a positive scenario, a compact but transparent market is formed with a stable GGR and a multiplier effect on IT outsourcing, marketing and employment.