The future of the industry

Until 2030, the Zambian market will remain "mobile-first": the core of growth will be given by online bets and casinos built into bookmakers (microstores, live markets, fast games).

Payments will connect deeper with mobile wallets and banking APIs; eKYC/AML will switch to biometrics and nat-ID verification, and ads will become more targeted and stricter.

Retail will retain its role in Lusaka, the Copper Belt and tourist Livingston, but the share of online will grow due to cheap mobile Internet and interoperability of payment systems.

The fiscal focus will shift to expanding the base through the withdrawal of turnover from the "gray" zone and online reporting, and not to raising rates.

Key risks - offshore traffic, currency volatility and payment failures; answers - television partnerships, backup channels, anti-fraud analytics and responsible play tools (limits, self-exclusion, affordability check).

The baseline scenario is moderate but steady growth in GGR and employment while increasing transparency and social responsibility.