The scale of the gambling industry

Bulgaria's gambling market is a mature and diversified ecosystem, combining online casinos and betting, offline casinos and slot halls, bookmaker retail, and lottery products. The conservative estimate of the total GGR (Gross Gaming Revenue) is €1.5-2.0 billion per year. This article decomposes the amount into segments, explains key metrics (GGR, turnover, margin), describes tax burden, employment, technological and behavioral trends, as well as regulatory risks.

1) What is GGR and why it is important to talk about it

GGR = bets (turnovers) − payouts. This is the net revenue of operators before operating expenses, but after payments to players.

In different segments, the margin is different: for slots, the margin is expressed through RTP (100% − RTP), for bets - through the "overground," for lotteries - through the allocated prize pool.

GGR allows you to correctly compare segments and countries without confusing turnover and real revenue.

2) Approximate Bulgarian Market Structure (GGR Shares)

💡 Ranges reflect natural demand volatility, sport seasonality and variation in operator portfolios.

Online casinos (slots + live): 38-45%

Offline slots and casinos: 30-35%

Sports betting (online + retail): 15-20%

Lotteries/bingo/tombola: 7-10%

Other (poker/game shows, etc.): 1-3%

In total, this forms €1.5-2.0 billion GGR in a normal year without extreme events.

3) Channels and player behavior

Mobile channel is the main driver (70% + online GGR): vertical interfaces, fast rounds, emphasis on slots and live shows.

Offline remains significant: the habit of slot halls/casinos, the social component, VIP halls and tourist traffic.

Omnichannel: a single account/wallet, online ↔ offline cross-promo, tournament nets and missions.

4) Taxes, fees and fiscal effect

The fiscal contribution consists of GGR/income taxes, licence fees, social contributions and VAT on non-core services.

Indirect effects: rental and maintenance of sites, marketing, media, IT infrastructure, payment commissions - all this forms value chains.

Responsible play and compliance are mandatory cost items, but also a trust factor (anti-fraud, KYC/AML, limits, self-exclusion).

5) Employment and supplier ecosystem

Direct employment: online operators, casinos and slot halls, betting networks, payment services, security services, dealers, cashiers, support.

Indirect employment: game providers (including local developers), integrators, payment providers, marketing, studio content production, logistics.

Multiplier: the operator has 1-1.5 places in related services per 1 workplace.

6) How GGR is evaluated: method and realism test

1. Segment Reconciliation:

Online casinos: estimates based on DAU/ARPPU, RTP pools and average session duration.
Offline slots/casino: average revenue per room/table × number of rooms/tables × loading.
Bets: sports turnover × average margin (usually 6-10%) after payments.
Lotteries/bingo: ticket sales × (1 − prize pool).
2. Penetration rates: proportion of adult population, proportion of active players, frequency/average check.
3. Seasonality: sports calendar, tourist peaks, holidays (growth of online slots and lotteries).
4. Cross-checking: comparison with neighboring markets of a similar structure and GDP per capita.

7) Growth Drivers 2025-2030

Mobile first: even faster on-ramp, instant CCL/payout, vertical UI.

Content economy: local slot school (EGT/Amusnet) + international leaders live create a dense hit-rate.

Omnichannel and personalization: unified missions/quests, smart recommendations, cross-promotional offline loyalty online.

Tech infrastructure: microservices, telemetry, real-time analytics, anti-fraud models.

Tourism: a steady flow to resort areas supports offline-GGR, especially during the season.

8) Risks and limitations

Regulatory and advertising: tightening of promo rules, restrictions on sports sponsorship, betting limits.

Tax burden: Rate/fee revisions can redistribute segment shares (especially live and slots).

Blocking/dealing with unlicensed sites: Market and consumer protections require continued investment.

Macroeconomics: Household income and inflation directly affect entertainment budgets.

Social risks: ludomania - reputational and regulatory consequences for the industry as a whole.

9) Unit metrics and KPIs that the market lives

DAU/MAU, Retention D1/D7/D30 - for online products.

ARPPU/ARPDAU - average spending of payers and revenue per active per day.

NGR/Net Margin - after promotional expenses and bonuses.

RTP/volatility - at the slots; table hold - at the tables; margin - at rates.

Churn/Reactivate Rate - churn and return of users.

KYC pass rate/Fraud rate - operational hygiene.

10) Scenarios to 2030 (GGR ranges)

Basic: stable growth of 3-5% CAGR due to the mobile channel and content updates → by 2030 the market GGR is shifting to €1.9-2.3 billion.

Optimistic: soft regulation, expansion of the live portfolio, growth of tourism, improvement of payment infrastructure → €2.2-2.6 billion.

Conservative: tougher advertising/taxes, pressure on bonuses and VIP → €1.6-1.9 billion.

11) The role of responsible play (RG) in long-term sustainability

Default tools: deposit/time limits, "time out," self-exclusion - reduces regulatory risks and builds trust.

Behavioral analytics: early detection of risk patterns; soft, player-friendly notifications.

Transparent rules: fair bonuses, visible RTP/conditions; training and tips right in the interface.

12) Brief FAQ

Why the range of €1.5-2.0 billion? Different accounting methods, seasonality, differences in operator portfolios and the share of the unlicensed segment create a "fork."

Are online or offline growing faster? Online thanks to mobile channel and content; offline is stable due to tourism and club culture.

What is the share of lotteries? Definitely less than slots/casinos, but stable due to regular circulation and habit.

What affects tax revenues the most? Rate/fee policy + effectiveness against unlicensed venues.

The Bulgarian gambling industry is €1.5-2.0 billion GGR per year, relying on powerful slot content and live casinos, sustainable offline infrastructure and rapidly growing mobile online. The further trajectory will be determined by the balance between innovation and responsibility, the speed of digitalization and regulatory logic. With the right set of rules and technologies, the market is able to maintain stable growth, providing a noticeable contribution to the budget and employment - without compromising the protection of players.