State casino and betting revenues

The gambling industry of Cyprus combines offline casinos (led by an integrated resort in Limassol and a network of "satellites") and licensed online betting. The sector's contribution to public finances is not only direct taxes on gaming income, but also a wide "crown" of indirect revenues: from NDFL and social contributions to tourist fees and VAT in related industries. Below is a system map of sources of income, valuation methodology and growth factors.

1) State revenue map

A. Direct "gambling" components

1. Gross Gaming Income Tax/Fee (GGR) - basic source: applies to offline casinos and online betting (within the permitted vertical).

2. Royalties and annual fees - for the right to organize casino/betting activities (including "satellites" and online operators).

3. Regulatory dues - financing of supervision, responsible play (RG), market monitoring and compliance.

B. Business tax "binding"

1. Corporate income tax (for operating companies and service providers).

2. VAT on non-financial services (F&B, entertainment, accommodation, MICE events in and around the resort).

3. Duties/fees - local permits, town planning fees, tourist fees (where applicable).

C. Labour market

1. Personal income tax (NDFL) on salaries of casino, hotel, F&B, security, IT, event management staff.

2. Employer and employee social contributions - pension/health funds.

3. Indirect jobs - security, cleaning, logistics, creative industries.

D. Indirect and induction effects

1. Tourism and MICE - additional VAT and excise taxes from related expenses (accommodation, meals, transport, retail, cultural events).

2. Investments and capex - duties, VAT on the purchase of materials, an increase in the tax base of related enterprises.

3. Real estate - an increase in the value and turnover of commercial space, fees for transactions and operation.

💡 Important: the vertical of online casino games (slots, tables) on the network is not licensed locally; consequently, the state does not receive its direct GGR tax, and indirect effects are cut.

2) How to count: methodology for editorial/analyst

Basic designations:

GGR_offline - offline casino gross income.
GGR_sports - gross income of online bets (allowed vertical).
t_ggr_offline/ t_ggr_sports - tax/collection rates on GGR.
Lic_fee - licenses and annual fees.
CIT - corporate income tax (taxable income rate).
PIT + SSC - NDFL and social contributions for the wage fund.
VAT_indirect - VAT from related industries generated by the traffic of the facility.

Simplified model:


Budget effect = (GGR_offline t_ggr_offline)
+ (GGR_sports t_ggr_sports)
+ Lic_fee
+ CIT
+ PIT+SSC
+ VAT_indirect returns/credits/benefits (if any)

The model is convenient for scenario analysis: you vary the input parameters (casino load, seasonality, margin, payroll, MICE calendar) and get a range of receipts.

3) What works today

An offline anchor object creates a multiplier: congresses, concerts and gastronomic weeks lead to non-gaming expenses (accommodation, restaurants, shopping), which are subject to VAT/excise taxes and increase PIT/SSC through employment.

The network of "satellites" distributes the flow to cities and maintains a base of local taxes and employment.

Online betting partially compensates for seasonality: receipts for GGR collection and supervision go all year round.

4) Where money is "lost"

1. Offshore online casinos (slots/live outside the local license) → non-available GGR tax, weak RG tools and complicated consumer protection.

2. Advertising distortions → overspending on attraction, low operating profit → below CIT.

3. The shortage of personnel → the growth of salaries without equivalent productivity → the compression of margins and the CIT base.

4. Geopolitical volatility → short load failures, cascading drop in VAT_indirect.

5) KPI-panel, which is worth tracking the state and the market

GGR_offline/ GGR_sports (months/quarter, seasonally adjusted).

Share of white traffic channel (based on monitoring of blocks/payments and polling).

PIT/SSC, employment, localization of personnel (share of local employees, release of training programs).

MICE calendar (events, average delegate check, load outside the beach season).

RG compliance metrics (self-exclusions, limits, number of interventions/1000 users).

Investment activity (CAPEX in hotels, F&B, infrastructure around the cluster).

6) Scenarios 2025-2030

S1. Conservative growth

Focus: offline cluster + stable online betting.

Drivers: MICE, tourism marketing, facilitation of visa and transport connectivity.

Risks: "leakage" offshore online without sewage progress.

Receipts: grow moderately due to VAT_indirect, PIT/SSC and GGR_offline.

S2. Accelerated growth (multiplier control)

Focus: increasing MICE, gastronomic and cultural events all year round, scaling personnel training programs.

Drivers: thoughtful support for the event calendar, promotion of shoulder seasons.

Receipts: noticeably increase in PIT/SSC and VAT_indirect; CIT is improved by efficiency.

S3. Reform (with possible future legalization of the iCasino part)

Focus: pilot sewerage of online casino games into a "white" model with hard RG and reporting.

Drivers: transfer of part of GGR from the "gray" segment to the taxable base, increase in license fees.

Receipts: a new GGR collection stream is added, but the costs of supervision and RG programs increase.

7) Politics and regulation: how to strengthen the fiscal effect

Transparent GGR mode and stable rules for offline/betting: predictability for investors and lenders.

RG- "handrails" (self-exclusion, limits, early detection) - reduce social costs and the risk of tightening, protecting long-term incomes.

MICE strategy (grants/marketing/infrastructure) - smoothes seasonality, increases VAT_indirect and PIT/SSC.

Personnel contour: hospitality academies and croupiers, language programs, joint standards with the industry.

Anti-offshore measures of "smart pressure": interaction with payment systems and information campaigns about the risks of unlicensed online.

8) Practical calculations: how to show the "fork" to the editors

Example (hypothetical numbers to illustrate):

GGR_offline = €300 million; t_ggr_offline = 15% → €45M
GGR_sports = €120 million; t_ggr_sports = 20% → €24 million
Lic_fee (cumulative) = €6 million
CIT = €12-18 million (depending on margin).
PIT + SSC = €25-35 million (according to the wage fund).
VAT_indirect = €40-60 million (related expenses).

Total "fork": €152-188 million per year under selected assumptions. By changing load factors, payroll and MICE calendar, you can quickly show an optimistic/basic/stress option.

💡 In public materials, always note that the calculations are illustrative, and real receipts depend on rates, benefits, seasonality, macro factors and oversight policies.

9) Risks and how to hedge them

Seasonality and demand shocks → MICE diversification, event calendar.

Shortage of personnel/increase in costs → training, import of competencies, increase in labor productivity.

Reputational risks/advertising → marketing codes, frequency/audience restrictions, transparent offers.

AML/KYC and sports integrity → investments in monitoring, signal exchange with international organizations.

Offshore online → information campaigns, payment filters, advice on safe behavior.

10) Withdrawal

The revenues of the state of Cyprus from casinos and bets are made up of direct GGR fees, licenses, corporate and salary taxes, as well as a powerful indirect multiplier of tourism and MICE. Anchor offline projects provide a stable base, online betting adds year-round, and a managed policy of employment and responsible play protects the "long" fiscal trajectory. The key to growth until 2030 is the stability of rules, investment in personnel and the event economy, plus a decrease in "leakage" into offshore online.