Torrent Gear

2030 forecast: France as a balanced but tight market

Starting point (2025)

Online perimeter: sports, running (PMU) and poker; a full online casino is not allowed.

Regulator: ANJ strengthens Responsible Gaming (RG), advertising control and the fight against illegal immigrants.

User behavior: mobile-first, live growth, micro-markets, omnichannel (app + retail).

Growth drivers to 2030

1. Mobile and live formats. Low latency, video rights, convenience stores (next game/break; cards/corner).

2. Data and personalization. xG metrics in football, service analytics in tennis/running, "quiet" personalization without FOMO.

3. Omnichannel. A bunch of offline (bar-tabac, hippodromes, casino) and applications, a single wallet/loyalty statuses.

4. Fantasy and esports. Social and content scenarios, not necessarily monetary, but supportive of engagement.

Growth limiters

Regulation of advertising. Hard tonality, age filters, frequency caps, strict bonus rules.

Affordability/KYC/AML. Default limits, spending availability checks, on/off-ramp tightening for crypto.

Incomplete perimeter online. Lack of mass online slots/roulette keeps revenue ceiling.

Competition for attention. Streaming, games, social networks - for the same 30-60 minutes of the user.

Scenarios 2030

1) Basic (most likely)

Online perimeter unchanged: sports, running, poker.

Pilots/sandboxes: point experiments with limited RNG products under strict RG (speed, RTP, autospin ban).

GGR growth: total + 15-30% by 2025 (about + 2-4% CAGR), mainly due to mobile and live.

Advertising/affiliates: further to moderation and chain responsibility.

2) Conservative (enhanced containment)

Without pilots. Tightening of high-frequency live markets for high-risk profiles.

GGR growth: + 5-15% by 2025 (≈ + 1-2% CAGR).

Regulator focus: affordability, algorithmic monitoring, sanctions for aggressive marketing.

3) "Reform-lite" (limited liberalization)

Pilots expand: limited pool of online slots/roulette via offline bundle (license + strict RG).

GGR growth: + 25-45% by 2025 (≈ + 4-6% CAGR), while tough KPIs for sewage and reducing "high-risk."

Compensations: advertising caps, visible limits, transparent RTP and pace of play.

Technological and product trends

"Honest UX" by default: visible bonus conditions, lack of dark patterns, reality checks.

Explainable AI в RG. From "black boxes" to explainable risk models, external audits and general minimum metrics.

Crypto payments are cautious. Stablecoins/trusted providers, chain analytics, travel rule; no "anonymous" scripts.

Video and interactive. Short clips, instant highlights, one-swipe bets - subject to tempo control.

Economics and revenue distribution (estimated)

Sports: market anchor; football and tennis are the core.

Running (PMU): stable pool with updated mobile UX and offline culture integration.

Poker: wave-like dynamics, amplification due to mobile MTT and local series.

Share of mobile: by 2030 - 75-85% of online GGR.

Live betting:> 60% of sports turnover during peak seasons.

Regulatory Horizon 2026-2030

Uniform default limits + "frictional" increase after cooling.

Affordability thresholds and SoF checks for large amounts.

Advertising-hygiene 2. 0: caps of frequency, prohibition of "risk-free" formulations, strict work with influencers.

Affiliates under the register: responsibility for misleading landings and gray redirects.

Fast blocking of illegal immigrants: administrative procedures and dereferencing, joint lists.

KPIs to watch

Sewerage: the share of players who left illegal immigrants for licenses.

RG indicators: share of high-risk profiles, time to intervention, frequency of self-exclusions/returns.

Ad-compliance: the share of creatives with correct disclaimers, the number of complaints.

Latency/video: average delay of feeds and streams in live.

Payments: Share of approved findings in SLAs, share of transactions through verified providers.

Risks and how to level them

Live overheating → risk gradation of markets, individual pace restrictions.

Regulatory sanctions → preventive audit of creatives/affiliates, logging and pre-clearance.

Security and privacy → encryption, segregation of funds, proof-of-reserves (where applicable), incident plan.

Reputation → transparent SLA payments, ombudsman, RG public reports.

What operators should do now

1. RG engine 2. 0: default limits, affordability-flow, explainable AI, single event log.

2. Mobile quality: low latency, "one screen - one coupon," dark theme, accessibility.

3. Content> promo: match centers, data, highlights instead of aggressive offers.

4. Omnichannel: a single wallet/statuses, offline missions, family events (racetracks/stadiums).

5. Crypto-circuit (as regulated): stablecoins, on/off-ramp with KYC/AML, chain-screening.

6. Affiliates under control: contracts with compliance KPIs, white lists, regular audit.

Until 2030, France will maintain a model of a "balanced but limited" market: sustainable mobile growth, strong live, cultural reliance on running and national tournaments - while tightening RG and advertising. Possible online casino sandboxes are unlikely to turn into broad liberalization without proven sewers and stable RG indicators. For business, the success strategy is to play long: build an honest UX, strengthen data and omnichannel, keep compliance at the "leading standard."