Further tightening of regulation
1) Player protection: "affordability" and default limits
What is likely:- Mandatory affordability checks at deposit/loss thresholds and for "accelerating" profiles.
- Default limits (deposits/time/losses) for new accounts with "frictional" increases only after cooling and additional verification.
- Expand the self-exclusion registry and automatically synchronize the status of all licenses.
- "Loss-streak protection": triggers after a series of losses (pause, lowering limits, mandatory risk wiki).
The effect: less harm to vulnerable groups, more friction at UX and rising costs for operators to verify and support.
2) Advertising and promo: even tougher framework
What is likely:- Reducing frequency caps and tightening tonality in digital (stop for "heating" and FOMO narratives).
- Stricter bonus rules: upper thresholds for welcome offers, prohibition of terms that hide risk ("risk-free," "return loss").
- Restrictions on influencer marketing: enhanced verification of the age structure of the audience, prohibition of "half-brand" native integrations without explicit labeling.
- A clear framework for sports sponsorship: the absence of youth expositions, a ban on children's sizes of merch with betting logos.
Effect: less marketing "overheating," redistribution of budgets into content and service.
3) Data and algorithms: industry standard for risk profiling
What is likely:- Uniform minimum RG metrics (sessions, sleep deficit, donabor after a loss, cascades of deposits) and reporting format.
- Algorithmic risk models with external audit: explainability and prohibition of discriminatory features.
- Mandatory telemetry of events (clicks, pauses, cancellations, rate rates) - for forensics and inspections.
Effect: the regulator has early detection of "red" profiles; operators have investments in datapiplines and MLOps.
4) Product design: "slower, simpler, more honest"
What is likely:- Restriction of fast live markets with a high frequency of bets (especially for high-risk profiles).
- Neutral UX: prohibition of "dark patterns," large submission of bonus conditions, display of probabilities and historical volatility.
- For a potential online casino sandbox (if any): spin speed control, auto spin ban, pseudo win ban, strict RTP ranges and visible limits.
Effect: reduced impulsivity and pace of play, stability of GGR at the cost of "lost" short-term activity.
5) Payments, AML and crypto perimeter
What is likely:- Strengthening the source of funds (SoF) for large amounts, cross-operator limits.
- Strict requirements for on/off-ramp cryptocurrency providers: address-screening, travel-rule, blocking "dirty" paths.
- Expansion of PSP/bank blacklists for payments towards illegal sites; automatic dereference of applications.
Effect: higher costs, but better sewage and lower share of gray traffic.
6) Affiliates and placement platforms: chain responsibility
What is likely:- Licensing/affiliate registry: clickbait ban, liability for misleading landing pages, sanctions for gray redirects.
- Responsibilities for AdTech/social networks: 18 + filters, reporting on brands and "black" lists, fast offboarding of violators.
Effect: Fewer gray funnels, cleaner performance channels and predictability for brands.
7) Fighting illegal immigrants: speed and scale
What is likely:- Administrative locks and dereference in an accelerated manner, centralized sharing of signatures of violators between providers.
- Financial sanctions and repeated fines for relapse, up to blocking domain "families."
- Cooperation with neighboring jurisdictions (cross-border cases and affiliate networks).
The effect: an increase in the cost of bypassing for illegal immigrants and better visibility of the legal sector for players.
8) Impact on stakeholders
Operators: increase in compliance costs, data infrastructure, audit; the need for product "slowdown" and sober advertising.
Media/affiliates: formalization of roles, verifiable funnels, moving away from "aggressive" creatives to content and analytics.
Players: more protection and transparency; more friction (checks, limits, pauses) - but predictability is higher.
Offline casino and PMU: stability in the scenario of "online pilots" through an offline bundle; more family and educational formats.
9) KPI of the regulator on the horizon of 12-24 months
Sewerage: the share of players who left the "gray" segment for licenses.
RG indicators: decrease in the proportion of high-risk profiles among active ones, time to intervention.
Communications: the share of campaigns with correct disclaimers, a decrease in complaints about advertising.
Enforcement: Blocking/dereferencing rate, repeat violations.
Privacy/payout incidents: zero personal data leakage, SLA cashouts.
10) Compliance Roadmap for Operator
1. Gap analysis: default limits, affordability flow, SoF rules, fault tolerance and logging.
2. Data-foundation: a single event log, fichestore for risk models, RG/AML dashboards.
3. Algorithms and audit: explainability of models, regular revaluation of features, external bias/drift testing.
4. UX refactoring: neutral visualization of coefficients and bonuses, remove dark patterns, increase the visibility of rules.
5. Marketing-hygiene: creative templates, moderation checklists, contracts with affiliates with KPIs on compliance with the rules.
6. Incident management: response plan for RG/AML events, feedback channels, ombudsman.
7. Team training: front line support, trading, CRM, media - uniform scripts and standards.
11) Typical mistakes and how to avoid them
"Hidden" bonus conditions → key rules large and on the first screen.
Betting on "fast" live markets for everyone → risk gradation by profile, alternative scenarios for high-risk.
Single RG widgets without system analytics → need a complete outline of data and triggers, not a showcase.
Passive control of affiliates → contractual and technical responsibility with regular audit.
Further tightening of regulation is not a "180 ° turn," but a consistent strengthening of the French model: less aggression in promotions, more checks on the availability of expenses, transparent algorithms and quick blocking of illegal immigrants. Those who rebuild the product and data for this reality in advance will benefit twice: by avoiding sanctions and earning the trust of the audience. For players, that means a safer environment; for the industry, predictable rules and a long planning horizon.