Legal reform prospects

The French gambling model is deliberately "narrow": only betting, betting on races, poker and lotteries are allowed online, the rest is offline. In 2024-2025 discussions of reforms accelerated: the state increases the fiscal burden, ANJ strengthens marketing control, a special JONUM mode for games with monetized digital objects has appeared, and the discussion about launching an online casino (slots, roulette, blackjack) flashes and fades. Below are the key milestones and likely trajectories.

1) Taxes: Fixed higher from July 1, 2025

• online bets: the cumulative load rises to about 59.3% of GGR (including an increase in CSG social contribution from 10.6% to 15% of GGR), online poker: instead of 0.2% of bets, 10% of GGR is introduced, for instant games - also an increase. These changes are officially outlined in FDJ communications and 2025 industry surveys.

Inference. In the short term, the regulatory focus is not expanding the assortment, but fiscal stabilization and "cooling" of the promotional race.

2) Advert: ANJ demands to slow down

For 2025, ANJ has publicly demanded advertising budgets be reviewed and cut, warning of "excess growth" in promos and risks to RG. We expect tougher tonality, frequency, targeting and sponsorships (in the spirit of "whistle-to-whistle" restrictions).

What does it mean. Operators are laying conservative plans: fewer aggressive bonuses, more compliance filters, stricter age barriers and warnings.

3) JONUM: "web3-window" in closed wall

Since May 2024, the SREN law has been in effect: it has created the JONUM mode - "games with monetizable digital objects." This is not an online casino, but a separate "sandbox" with admission through ANJ and future by-laws (decree Conseil d'État). Practically: studios and web 3 platforms get a framework for working without cash winnings, but with strict requirements for consumer protection.

Perspective. In 2025-2026 - finishing decrees and supervision methods; JONUM does not replace "online casinos," but tests the balance of innovation and RG.

4) FDJ: EU position and sustainability of the "core"

The European Commission in October 2024 confirmed the legality of the privatization of FDJ and its exclusives (lotteries and retail rates), recalculating the payment for the rights (from 380 to 477 million €). This strengthened the status quo on the monopoly and reduced the short-term chances of "rocking" the lotto vertical.

5) Online Casinos: Try - and Roll Back

The 2025 budget amendment to legalise online casinos was withdrawn by the government amid resistance from the offline sector, RG concerns and discussions about a fiscal model. Industry reports indicated an indicative rate of about ~ 55-56% GGR for this vertical - but the political window closed.

Horizon. In 2025-2026 the baseline scenario is without launching an online casino. If they return to the topic, then in the form of a limited pilot: a strict tax model, content limits/loss limits, strict advertising, possible "sandboxes" with ANJ.

6) Local plots: "Paris case" and offline logic

At the end of 2024, the media sounded uncertainty around the future of Parisian gambling clubs (an experimental regime without slots): another signal that offline frames are also a politically fragile structure, but the priority of the state is to maintain a controlled ecosystem.

Scenarios 2025-2027

Conservative (basic)

• Taxes on GGR are fixed, only "fine-tuning" of rates is possible;
• Advertising - on the "short leash" ANJ;

JONUM develops as a niche.

Probability: High.

Cautious liberalization (pilot)

Return to the idea of ​ ​ an online casino, but through a limited pilot: a small number of licenses, high taxes, marginal RG requirements (deposit/loss limits, "game reality" mechanism), possible bans on jackpots/certain mechanics;

Increased control of promo and UX (large print warnings, "cooling").

Probability: Medium/low before election/budget cycle.

Fiscal recalibration

According to the results of 2025-2026, it is possible to correct individual bets (for example, on poker) with proven elasticity of demand and pressure of the "gray" segment.

Probability: average.

What players and operators should do

• Focus on licensed online (sports, poker, horse racing, lotto);
• Expect more "rigorous" promotional messages and fewer "generous" bonuses;
• The classic casino is still offline.

• Plan CAC/LTV for tax increases and promotional restrictions;
• Strengthen RG tools (limits, risk tracking, "game reality," self-exclusion);
• Follow JONUM as an R&D vector;
• Prepare positions in case of an online casino pilot: tax scenario analysis, content matrices, "safety by design."

In short: France in 2025-2027. moving not towards liberalization, but towards stabilization: more taxes, less advertising, neat JONUM and a pause on online casinos. You can return to "online casinos," but only as a severely limited pilot - and only if the state sees this as a fiscal and social meaning with a minimum of RG risks.