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Government revenues from licenses and taxes
The Greek gambling market is one of the most structured in Southern Europe: it combines the powerful legacy of ground operators (casinos, betting outlets) with the rapid growth of the online segment. For the country's budget, this is a stable source of fiscal revenues: the state receives money through taxes on gross gaming income (GGR), a progressive tax on player winnings, licensing fees and corporate taxes, as well as through special deductions for responsible play and supervision. Below is a detailed map of these flows, their dynamics and an estimate of the scale in money.
1) Key actors and regulatory framework
Regulator: Hellenic Gaming Commission (HGC) - issues and renews licenses, monitors compliance with the rules, administers fines.
Market Segments:- land casinos and betting points;
- public/private lotteries and instant games (a historically strong role for OPAP);
- online betting and online casinos (slots, Live games) operating under separate types of licenses.
- Transition to the "white" online market: completed liberalization with permanent licenses strengthened the basis for a stable tax flow.
2) What are the state revenues
1. The GGR tax (gross gaming income = bets minus winnings) is the main fiscal tool for casinos, betting and online gaming.
2. License fees - one-time/periodic payments for the right to work in the market (separately for betting and for online casino games).
3. Player Winnings Tax - Deducted from net winnings and has a progressive scale (threshold/bet increases as winnings increase).
4. Corporate taxes - on the profit of operators (after taking into account GGR tax, operating expenses, etc.).
5. Fines and sanctions are an irregular, but noticeable source with increased supervision.
6. Earmarks - for responsible play programs, monitoring and research.
3) How the GGR tax works
Base: GGR for each vertical segment (land casinos, bets, online casinos/slots, etc.).
Logic: higher GGR load from "casino products" and moderate - from sports betting are historically characteristic of Europe.
Budget effect: The GGR tax provides predictable monthly receipts that are weaker dependent on unit jackpots than turnover taxes.
4) Licenses: one-time and periodic payments
License types: generally separate for betting and for online casinos (slots/Live).
Payment structure:- Entrance fee/one-time fee for obtaining a license;
- Regular renewals (multi-year) or annual payments;
- Contribution to supervisory and technical expenses of the regulator.
- Role for the budget: smaller than the GGR tax, but significant when expanding the list of licensees (the growth of the online sector increases the base).
5) Player Winning Tax (Player Withholding)
Principle: The higher the net gain, the higher the marginal retention rate.
Market behavior: players split bets (especially online) to reduce single taxable winnings; this indirectly affects the operators' product strategy (micro-rates, express trains with more frequent but lower payments).
For budget: Steady flow but sensitive to threshold settings and player behavioural patterns.
6) Corporate taxes and other income
Corporate Income Tax (CIT): Payable on operators' profits after GGR tax and expenses.
Social contributions/personal income tax of employees: the accompanying effect of employment (casinos, call centers, risk/AML teams, IT, marketing).
Fines and penalties: one-off, but useful for signals of compliance with the rules.
7) Market size and money benchmarks
GGR estimate: in public discussions, the corridor of €2-3 billion GGR per year for the total market (lotteries, bets, casinos, online) more often appears.
Fiscal withdrawal ratio: depending on the portfolio structure (the share of slots/Live is higher - the average fiscal load is closer to the upper limit), the total "effective" rate for the budget (GGR-tax + licenses + tax on winnings + CIT) can be in the range ~ 25-35% of GGR.
Total Budget Benchmark:- with a GGR of €2.0 billion and an "effective" share of 30% - about €600 million per year;
- with GGR €2.5 billion and 30% - about €750 million;
- with GGR €3.0 billion and 30% - about €900 million.
- These amounts are indicative and depend on the exact rate matrix, the share of lotteries (often a separate logic), the progression of the tax on winnings and the profit of the operators.
8) Dynamics 2010-2025: What affected revenues
Market consolidation and restructuring: "entering the white zone" has strengthened tax collection.
Online Growth: License Base Expansion and Rate Migration to Digital Channels Added Revenue Predictability.
Responsible play and compliance: Tightening AML/KYC and advertising rules restrains the "gray" segment, but requires investment - some of which is returned to the budget as taxes on salaries and profits.
Tourism and seasonality: Peak casino and betting during the high tourist season supports GGR and taxes, especially in resort regions.
9) Revenue allocation model (scheme)
1. GGR tax → central budget (with possible share of trust funds/programs).
2. Licensing fees → regulator and/or budget (financing of supervision, IT infrastructure, monitoring).
3. Tax on winnings → budget (withholding on the side of operators on payment).
4. CIT and social contributions → budget and social insurance funds.
5. Contributions to Responsible Gaming → national prevention and assistance programs.
10) Scenario calculations for 2025 (example)
Suppose the total GGR is €2.6 billion:- Portfolio structure: 35% lottery, 30% betting, 35% casino/slots (online + offline).
- lotteries - ~ 28%;
- rates - ~ 26%;
- casino/slots - ~ 34%;
- weighted average ≈ 29.5%.
- Estimated budget revenues: €2.6 billion × 29.5% ≈ €767 million.
- Plus one-time licensing receipts with the expansion of the number of operators and administrative fines - several tens of millions more in the "good" years.
11) Risks and sensitivities
Changing rates/thresholds: GGR tax adjustments or winnings are quickly reflected in the budget.
Market structure: an increase in the share of slots increases the "effective" fiscal burden (as a share of GGR), an increase in the share of sports betting decreases.
Compliance pressure: Strong oversight reduces the gray segment (plus budget), but may slow short-term GGR growth.
Macro factors: consumer income, tourism, major sporting events, inflation.
12) Comparison with EU (in general terms)
Southern Europe: Often a higher proportion of lotteries and land-based casinos in the portfolio.
North/West EU: strong digitalization, higher share of online casinos and Live - while tougher advertising and RG restrictions.
Greece is in the middle: an active online sector while maintaining the importance of lotteries and land sites - this gives the budget a diversified source of revenue.
13) Forecast to 2030
Steady online growth with tighter advertising and RG rules.
Investments in supervisory technologies (behavioral analytics, anti-fraud, real-time monitoring) - an increase in the efficiency of tax collection.
Spot rate adjustments are likely to balance the budget and compete with neighboring EU markets.
The range of budget revenues with a GGR of €2.4-3.2 billion and an effective share of 28-33% is €670- €1,050 million per year.
14) What is important to business and the state
Operators: predictability of tax policy and clear procedure for renewing licenses.
State: transparency, combating the illegal segment, RG measures, protection of vulnerable players.
Compromise: "broad base + moderate betting + strict supervision" historically give maximum collection without pushing players into the shadows.
Short FAQ
What gives the budget the most? GGR tax is the basis.
Are licenses a lot? In total, less than the GGR tax, but significant with the growth of online.
Winning tax important? Yes, especially with large payments; it smooths out cyclicality.
Can revenues be doubled? Only if the GGR grows and/or the rate/structure is rebuilt; simply raising taxes could squeeze some of the demand into the grey area.
Conclusion: Greece has built a diversified system of fiscal revenues from gambling. With a GGR of about €2-3 billion per year, the budget receives approximately €0.6-0.9 + billion in total revenues through GGR taxes, licenses, tax on winnings and corporate payments. The strategy for 2025-2030 is to maintain the "white" status of the market, gradually increasing the efficiency of collection through digital supervision and balancing rates, without stimulating fading into the shadows.