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Forecast to 2030
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1) Summary: what will change by 2030
By 2030, Ireland will be one of Europe's most "digital-first" markets: mobile betting and online gaming will default, licensing and supervision will be centralized in GRAI, and responsible gaming (RG) will become a "built-in feature" of each application. Ground licenses (in-person gaming) will appear in a limited but noticeable form; horse racing, the GAA and football will retain a cultural core of demand. Money will move faster (T + 0), and data will move more transparently (reports, complaints, audits).
2) Regulation: Roadmap
2025-2026: phased introduction of new modes for betting and distance games; practice guides on licensing, advertising, RG and complaints.
2026-2027: license scaling, in-person gaming launch/expansion, inspection and enforcement debugging.
By 2030: established reporting cycles, public RG metrics, predictable sanctions, and "one-button" digital reporting.
Conclusion: players - more protection and clarity; business - higher process requirements, but also higher predictability.
3) Market and consumer
Online ≥65 -70% of GGY; mobile share online - 85-90%.
Behavior: short live sessions, outcome constructors (SGP), micropari, E/W to races, fantasy and friendly pools.
Female and young adult audiences are growing due to fantasy/social formats and convenient payments.
4) Payments and fintech
T + 0 instant payouts will become standard (evening/weekend inclusive).
Stablecoins and L2 networks are another method (through regulated providers), while all amounts in the interface are in euro equivalent.
On-ramp/off-ramp overseen by AML/KYC; reports in CSV/PDF - "one click."
5) Ground formats (in-person)
There will be small legal platforms and play areas with tight access control, RG messages and advertising restrictions. The main effect is employment and support for the night economy in large cities, synergy with tourism and festivals (horse racing, music, sports).
6) Advertising and sponsorships
Strengthening youth-safe rules, "watersheds" and frequency caps.
Sponsorships with sports are shifting to the educational and RG agenda: visible disclaimers, less "easy money," more local identity and charity.
7) Technology and Product
AI personalization: smart recommendations and "honest explanations" (why this bet), but paired with AI-anti-harm (early risk signals, soft interventions, pauses).
Video streams and clips within applications; horse tracking, fast replays of the finish; extended GAA/rugby/football statistics.
Accessibility (A11y): contrast/fonts, modes for color blindness, voice control.
Reliability: isolation of live pricing, degradation without drops, logging of actions for inspections.
8) Cultural core: horse racing, GAA, lotteries
Horse racing and greyhounds will remain a "symbol" with a tourist effect (Race & Stay packages).
GAA/football/rugby are the main drivers of live and fantasy; women's sports are growing.
Lotteries - a steady channel of "good causes"; digital subscriptions and transparent reporting will build trust.
9) ESG and wellbeing
Public RG panels for operators (limits, timeouts, average payout time).
Research and Assistance Fund - systemic support for NGOs, training and prevention.
Ecology and the city: transport solutions for festival days, waste sorting at sites, local suppliers.
10) Risks and mitigation
Game harm with an "always available" bet → default limits, reality check, quiet mode at night, family profiles for locks.
Fraud and phishing → passkeys/2FA, device binding, user education.
Compliance load → reporting automation, phased audits, regtech integration.
11) Scenarios 2025-2030
Basic
Full deployment of GRAI, online-gaming and in-person by phase; T + 0 payouts; strict advertising; RG metrics are public.
GGY is growing moderately, the online share ~ 70%.
Optimistic
Quick in-person launch in key cities; the heyday of hybrid festivals (sports + event + betting in moderation); proof-of-reserves/on-line transparency for some operators.
GGY growth above expectations, tourism intensifies.
Careful
Tighter advertising and AML slow marketing; delays in bylaws.
The market is stable, with an emphasis on retention and RG efficiency rather than expansion.
12) What to do business (checklist for 24 months)
1. Licensing: type map (remote/in-person/B2B), ready-made package of documents, designated person responsible for compliance.
2. RG by design: limits/timeout/self-exclusion on onboarding; Reports for customers "quiet mode" fluffs.
3. Advertising: youth-safe, frequency caps, "watershed"; honest T&C bonuses.
4. Payments: T + 0 as KPI; VASP partners in crypto methods; transparent commissions.
5. Technique: logging, incident telemetry, backup live contours, regular pen tests.
6. ESG/reporting: quarterly RG metrics on the site; participation in a relief/research fund.
13) What the player should do (short rules until 2030)
Set limits before replenishment, turn on reality check and take breaks.
Use T + 0 payments only on proven methods; Keep transaction/bid history.
See betting as entertainment, not a source of income; avoid loans and "dogons."
Choose licensed brands with visible RG panels and an understandable complaint procedure.
Editorial templates (for data substitution)
Table A - Regulatory Milestones to 2030
Table B - Operator KPI (to be published on the website)
Table C - Demand Portrait-2030 (Estimate)
TL; DR
By 2030, Ireland will secure "digital leadership" in gambling: mobile, T + 0 payments, strict RG and transparent advertising will become the norm. GRAI will provide uniform rules, and ground licenses will appear pointwise. Brands that combine fast UX with provable responsibility - public RG metrics, honest communication and impeccable compliance - will win. Players - more protection and convenience; industry - maturity and trust.