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State revenues from monopoly
The monopoly model in the online casino segment (Total Casino under Totalizator Sportowy) is not only risk control and responsible play, but also a predictable revenue fork for the budget. The state receives money through several channels at once, and the centralized architecture simplifies administration, reduces leaks to the "gray" sector and makes receipts more stable.
1) State revenue channels
1. Gambling tax (and/or GGR).
Basic source of revenue: Charged on gross gambling income or turnover based on vertical and taxation formula. With a monopoly, the tax base is easier to control - all reports and logs are accumulated from one operator.
2. Dividends from the state operator.
The net profit of Totalizator Sportowy (after taxes and expenses) is partially directed to the state in the form of dividends. This is the second, "premium" income circuit in excess of tax collections.
3. Licensing and regulatory fees.
Even with a monopoly, administrative payments (permits, content certification, RNG audit, supervisory fees) remain.
4. Earmarks.
Part of the funds is channeled into socially important areas: sports, culture, addiction prevention and responsible play (RG) programs. Such a "social return" strengthens the legitimacy of the industry.
5. Taxes of related industries.
The fiscal footprint is created by fintech and payment services, media and advertising (within restrictions), cybersecurity, IT infrastructure support, as well as employment in retail lotteries and land-based casinos.
2) Why monopoly boosts collection
Single reporting loop. All data - from rates and RTP to payments - is available to the regulator in one format, which speeds up control and reduces the risk of incomplete declaration.
Demand sewerage. Due to the blocking of "gray" domains and filtering of payments, more traffic goes into the "white" sector, which means that the taxable base is growing.
Less administrative overhead. Instead of dozens of licensees - one operator with unified integrations e-ID/KYC, AML and RG.
3) Structure of flows: how money "goes" to the budget
1. Players → bets → GGR/tax → budget.
2. The operator → profits → dividends to the state.
3. Operator/budget → trust funds (sports/culture/RG programs).
4. Related companies → corporate taxes/personal income tax/insurance premiums.
4) Revenue stability and predictability
The "one window" model reduces the volatility of fiscal results: it is easier to plan annual/quarterly KPIs and cash gaps.
Antifraud and KYC reduce fraud losses, which directly affects net income and dividends.
The control of bonuses and promos (under the RG) limits the "burning" of GGR to marketing expenses while maintaining the fiscal base.
5) Compromises of the monopoly model
Advantages for the budget:- high collection and transparency;
- centralized audit, fewer additional charges conflicts;
- managed allocation to social programs.
- less competition - slower implementation of product innovations, potentially lower organic GGR growth;
- limited bonus policy - can restrain the involvement of a part of the audience that goes into the "gray" zone if the UX monopoly lags behind.
6) Economic multiples
Employment and salaries. Operator, payment providers, information security outsourcing, data centers, content studios, call centers.
Sports and culture. Transparent sponsorships and grants funded by earmarks.
Technology and cybersecurity. Investments in e-ID, behavioral analytics, anti-bots protection and transaction monitoring.
7) KPI efficiency for the Ministry of Finance and the regulator
Sewerage: the share of legal turnover in the assessment of total demand.
Fiscal metrics: tax revenues by vertical, dividends, stability of cash plans.
RG-indicators: coverage with personal limits, the share of players with active timeouts/self-exclusion, the number of support interventions.
Enforcement: the speed of blocking domains and payments, repeated violations.
Quality of service: CCM/payout time, NPS/CSAT, platform fault tolerance.
8) What boosts revenue without giving up monopoly
UX upgrade and monopolist's mobile application (quick deposits/cashouts, understandable limits, personal recommendations within the RG).
Expanding the catalog of certified games and live tables while maintaining strict limits.
Dynamic calibration of the tax formula according to the actual sewage KPIs (so as not to push demand into the "gray" zone).
A single anti-fraud hub for all verticals, improving device-fingerprinting and behavioral scoring.
Transparent public reporting on KPIs - strengthens trust, increases the "white" share of turnover.
9) Horizon to 2030: base case
The evolutionary growth of GGR due to mobile, live products and a high-quality UX monopolist.
Point technological reforms: biometrics to accelerate KYC, real-time RG triggers, smart risk profile limits.
Stable dividend policy of the state operator with an increase in efficiency and a decrease in transaction operating costs.
Possible pilots for "soft" liberalization of individual sub-products - only on condition that this increases the sewerage and fiscal effect without increasing social risks.
The monopoly on online casinos in Poland is an instrument of fiscal stability: taxes + dividends + earmarks form a steady cash flow, and centralized control increases collection. In order for revenues to grow without excessive risks, it is important for the state to maintain a monopoly channel competitive in UX and technology, regularly calibrate the tax structure according to the sewage KPI and maintain transparent public reporting on Responsible Gaming.