Prospects for further legalization of online casinos

Starting point: Ontario as a "showcase" model with private operators

Since April 2022, Ontario is the only province with a competitive market: private brands operate under registration with AGCO and an agreement with iGaming Ontario (iGO). In 2024-2025, the financial market has confirmed its stability: CA $3. 20 billion GGR (+ 32% YoY), of which casino revenue ~ CA $2. 4 billion; the data was published by iGO itself and the specialized press. This creates a powerful "yes" argument for neighboring jurisdictions discussing reforms.

Where is the monopoly today and what can change

Alberta: iGaming's publicly stated strategy

The Alberta government is officially working on an online strategy, starting with consultations with indigenous peoples and ground operators (summer 2024) - this is the first formal step towards the possible admission of private brands according to the Ontario model. Details (tolerance model, deadlines) at the end of 2025 are in development, but the vector is indicated.

British Columbia: Political Dialogue and Industry Lobbying

Only PlayNow (BCLC) is legal in BC; the corporation itself emphasizes the status of the only legitimate site and cites fiscal indicators from iGaming. In parallel, private companies promote the idea of an "open" market, as in Ontario (media record such meetings/discussions with the government). For 2025, this is a political issue, not an accepted reform.

Quebec: A "window of opportunity" after the election

Quebec traditionally relies on Loto-Québec (revenue and net profit growth confirmed in 2024/25), but profile briefings note that the next election could be a moment to discuss changes in the status quo in the online sector. This is not a promise of reform, but a signal that the topic is on the agenda.

Saskatchewan: BCLC collaboration "hybrid"

Since November 2022, PlayNow Saskatchewan has been operating in the province under the control of SIGA/SaskGaming together with BCLC - this is a legal online casino/sport, but without the admission of private brands. The model demonstrates that provinces can quickly deploy online through partnerships without changing the regulatory paradigm.

Atlantic, Manitoba, territories: status quo

ALC (Atlantic), MB (via PlayNow) and territories adhere to government platforms/retail solutions. On the horizon of 2026, there are no obvious signs of a transition to an "open" model in the public plane. (The exception is the general discussion on "gray" online demand and competition.)

Key factors that will decide the "future" of the model

1. Fiscal effect and transparency of deductions

Ontario shows that competition + strict supervision can bring a meaningful GGR, which means a sustainable base for deductions and economic contributions. For "monoprovisions" the question is what will give a change in the model relative to the current dividends of their Crown structures (for example: strong Loto-Québec results).

2. Responsible play and marketing

The tightening of advertising rules in Ontario (banning current athletes and restricting celebrities) removed fears of an "aggressive race" promo and became a guideline for others. Probably, any future "discoveries" will be accompanied by rigid RG-frames close to Ontarian.

3. Partnerships with indigenous peoples

Income distribution formats and community participation are a prerequisite for the political sustainability of reforms. Alberta directly began by consulting with First Nations, Saskatchewan - an example of an operating model with SIGA.

4. Competition with the "gray" online segment

The industry's argument: The "open" market displaces unlicensed operators through local payments, KYC and geo-blocking in a competitive product. BC publicly records that PlayNow is "competing online" - the question is whether the province will decide to change its strategy.

Scenarios 2026-2030

Basic (most likely):

Alberta is launching a regulated online marketplace with private brand admission (modeled on Ontario) under strict RG and marketing rules. British Columbia retains the monoplatform, but expands content and payment options; the question of "discovery" remains political. Quebec is conducting point upgrades under Loto-Québec; "full opening" is an option depending on the outcome of the political cycle.

Accelerated (less likely, but possible):

Simultaneously, Alberta and BC announce admit cards for private operators, drawing on Ontario's results and competitive pressures. This changes the balance of power in Canada and creates a "western cluster" of open markets.

Conservative (least likely for AB):

Provinces are holding on to monetization through Crown corporations and are strengthening only payment/advertising controls. Online growth is due to the improvement of state platforms (in the spirit of Saskatchewan).

Practical conclusions for players and business

Players:

Prior to the reforms, online casinos are legal on provincial platforms (PlayNow, Loto-Québec, PlayAlberta, ALC) and private brands only in Ontario (iGO). Check regulator licenses/icons and RG sections.

Content operators/providers:

Keep an eye on Alberta (consultations are already underway) and BC (political dialogue is active). Quick Deployment Cases - Saskatchewan/PlayNow. The Ontario model becomes a de facto "template" for future applicants.

Briefly by province (status as of 2025)

ON: iGO open market + record GGR performance; strict advertising norms.

AB: official iGaming strategy in development (consultations completed/underway).

BC: the only legal site - PlayNow; around the model there is a political discussion of "discovery."

QC: Loto-Québec's strong financial results; a possible "window" for post-election reforms.

SK: запущен PlayNow Saskatchewan (SIGA/SaskGaming+BCLC).

MB/Atlantic/territories: status quo with state platforms/retail.

Ontario proved the viability of iGaming's competitive model with third-year market numbers (CA $3. 20 billion GGR, casino vertical dominance), and it is this experience that shapes the neighbors' agenda. Alberta is already officially building an online strategy and looks like the main candidate for the "next wave." British Columbia is conducting a political dialogue against the backdrop of the PlayNow monopoly, Quebec may return to the topic after the elections. In either scenario, future reforms will rely on rigid standards of responsible play, partnership with indigenous peoples, and a demonstrable fiscal return.