Possibility of casino return in case of economic liberalization (Cuba)

Cuba has been living in a paradigm of completely banning commercial gambling for more than six decades. The question is "is it possible to return the casino with economic liberalization?" pops up periodically in expert discussions. The answer depends not on nostalgia for the 1950s, but on a set of prerequisites: political, institutional, payment and social. Below is a sober analysis of scenarios, what exactly the "day before the start" should be ready, where the red lines will pass and what a realistic roadmap looks like if the course ever changes.

1) Base position and "reference point"

Status quo: there are no legal casinos or online gambling; any bets are illegal.

Memory of the past: the "showcase" of Havana in the 1950s is aesthetically attractive, but its managerial foundation (cash, patronage, criminal influence) is not a model for revival.

Liberalization ≠ automatic legalization: conversation is possible only as a managed, limited and socially sound policy.

2) Potential drivers of discussion

1. Fiscal diversification: Predictable revenue from licence fees and GGR tax.

2. Tourist multiplier: an increase in the average "evening" check in resort areas.

3. Shadow control: forcing the underground into an adjustable area in the presence of responsible play mechanisms.

4. Institutional development: creation of a regulator, IT supervision and transparent reporting as a "side" positive.

3) Stop factors

Ideological continuity and social optics "casino = vice/inequality."

Infrastructure complexity: KYC/AML, payment rails, audit, independent test laboratories.

Risks of seizure of the regulator and corruption rent.

Reputational risks for the country's brand focused on culture and family tourism.

4) Models that could theoretically be discussed

1. Resort licenses "limited number" (1-3 objects)

Binding to specific integrated resorts, hard perimeter, passport and age access, marketing limits.

2. Lottery/sports betting in state or quasi-state format

If the priority is a "low-risk" phase with social contributions.

3. Online sandbox with real reporting time

Microlicenses for a limited set of verticals under strict KYC, deposit/time limits and API supervision.

💡 Any model prioritizes consumer protection over growth.

5) What should be ready "before"

Regulator with an independent mandate, budget and IT core (event register: deposits/conclusions, rates, limits, self-exclusion).

Law and regulation: definitions, licenses, prohibitions, tax formula (simple GGR + fees), open harm/benefit statistics.

KYC/AML: uniform standards, black/gray-lists, interagency data exchange, sanction filters.

Payment rails: legal payment methods with reversibility of transactions and dispute mechanisms; banning anonymous intermediaries.

Responsible game by design: day/month limits, cool-off, self-exclusion, transparent RTP/odds showcase.

Independent audit: accredited RNG laboratories, annual certification of platforms and content.

Communication: honest risk explanation, hotlines, addiction prevention funding.

6) Roadmap (if political decision made)

Phase 0 - White Paper (6-12 months)

Public consultations, impact assessment, draft law, regulator design, choice of auditors.

Phase 1 - Low-risk start (12-18 months)

Lottery/instant pilot or one resort pilot under a "glass cap."

Mandatory KPIs: complaints, average deposits, the share of self-exclusions, calls to the hotline.

Phase 2 - Point Casinos (18-30 months)

1-2 facilities, limited hours and promotional requirements, no credit play.

External audit of reporting and social effects, public quarterly panels.

Phase 3 - Online Sandbox (from Phase 2)

Microlicenses for a limited list of games; API reporting in real time; automatic "stop triggers" when limits are exceeded.

Phase 4 - Treatment

Suspension/extension based on harm/benefit metrics; possibility of "emergency brake."

7) Fiscal architecture

Simple and predictable GGR tax (without "cascades" so as not to push into the shadows).

Trust funds: Fixed share for healthcare/addiction prevention/sport.

License fees: cover supervision and IT infrastructure.

Localization threshold: minimum of local workplaces/contracts, personnel training program.

8) Tourist areas: "what not to repeat from the 1950s"

Cash out of the game: full non-cash and telemetry against the "gray cash registers."

Stream separation: shows and gastronomy as an independent value; casino is an option, not the "center of the universe."

Advertising Code: no promises of easy winnings; clear risk labeling and age control.

Urban environment: limits on noise/traffic, the contribution of operators to the improvement and safety of the area.

9) Social fuses

Default limits (opt-out only through income verification).

Algorithms for early harm detection ("dogon" patterns, night marathons, frequent deposits).

Mandatory self-exclusion for 6-12 months. at the request of the player for 1-2 clicks.

Prohibition of credit and "debt" games, tough sanctions for mediation.

Independent Ombudsman and Rapid Dispute Procedure.

10) Risks and how to minimize them

Capture of the regulator → rotation of leadership, public reporting, conflict-of-interest policies.

Outflow into the shadows at a high tax rate → the balance between budget income and the incentive to play "white."

Surges in demand online → deposit limits, caps on operators' profits in the pilot, red buttons for temporary suspension.

Reputational shocks → crisis communications protocol, quick compensation for proven incidents.

11) Success Metrics (KPIs)

Fiscal: GGR, taxes, fees; share of "white" turnover.

Social: appeals to the hotline, the share of self-excluded, average deposit/session, complaints.

Enforcement: reduction of underground (raids/seizures), share of fraud.

Tourism: average check, length of stay, repeat visits in pilot zones.

Transparency: timely published reports, independent audits.

12) Online: if ever allowed

Only after an offline pilot and a mature regulator.

Real-time API surveillance, whitelisting content, centralized state-level self-exclusion.

High level KYC/AML: income verification to raise limits; prohibition of anonymous payment methods.

The "responsible game" module is not extracted from the client (UI/UX rules for calling limits and reminders).

13) Frequent Questions (FAQs)

Why even discuss? Only as a tool of managed control and fiscal diversification, and not for the sake of "nostalgia."

Is it possible to limit yourself to "only tourists"? Theoretically, yes, but you have to solve the issues of residency, login control and "overflow" online.

And if everything goes wrong? The pilot design should provide for the revocation of licenses and quick "folding" without judicial labyrinths.

In theory, the return of casinos to Cuba under liberalization is possible only as a narrow, slowly scalable and socially protected project based on strong institutions, payment transparency and the priority of citizens' health. Without a regulator, IT supervision and honest communication with society, any attempt to repeat the "golden showcase" is doomed to repeat its mistakes. The correct sequence is first institutions and fuses, then pilots, then decisions based on data. If there is no political will and infrastructure, the best strategy remains the same: a course towards culture, science, sports and family tourism without playing for money.