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Online gambling potential at market opening (Cuba)
Today, commercial online gambling is prohibited in Cuba. The question is "what happens if the market is ever opened?" it makes sense to consider not as nostalgia for the 1950s, but as an exercise in institutional design: what conditions are needed for the digital segment to create added value, not social costs. Below is a sober "model of the future" with prerequisites, volume scenarios, products, taxes and fuses.
1) Basic prerequisites for a successful launch
Independent regulator with an IT core (real-time register of rates/deposits/conclusions, centralized self-exclusion).
Payment infrastructure with reversibility of operations: cards/bank rails/licensed wallets; banning anonymous intermediaries.
KYC/AML according to international standards (including verification of the source of funds for raising limits).
Responsible game rules by design: daily/monthly limits, "cool-off," one-click self-exclusion, transparent RTP.
Independent audit of content and platforms (RNG/provider certification, annual audits).
Public reporting on harm/benefits: hotlines, prevention programs funded by the industry.
2) Product matrix (as mature)
1. Phase 1 (low-risk): state/quasi-state lottery, instant draws, fix-odds for sports in "light" format with strict limits.
2. Phase 2: Casino games with certified RNG, limited live casino (up to X hours per night), cap poker on boots and low/medium stakes tournaments.
3. Phase 3: expansion of sports betting, virtual views, e-sports (with separate risk assessment).
The point: to go "from simple to complex," measuring the social footprint at every step.
3) Scenario assessment of potential (qualitative)
Since there are no reliable statistics, it is reasonable to evaluate the market according to scenarios of penetration among a solvent audience with strict limits and a ban on credit play.
Conservative scenario: pilot 1-2 years with a lottery and light rates → low checks, high control, focus on crowding out the underground and building institutions.
Basic scenario: connection of certified casino content, moderate deposit limits, gradual expansion of payment methods → moderate GGR, stable fiscal revenues, managed harm.
Stress scenario (which should not be allowed): quick admission of aggressive live and bonuses without fuses → a surge in involvement among vulnerable groups and a reputational blow.
The main KPI of the first years is not the size of the market, but the quality of supervision (complaints, self-exclusions, appeals on the help line).
4) Tax and fiscal architecture
Gross gaming income (GGR) tax at a simple, predictable rate + licenses/contributions.
Earmarks: fixed interest on healthcare, addiction prevention, sports and culture.
Avoid "cascades" (turnover, VAT on top of GGR, etc.) so as not to push players and operators back into the shadows.
5) Payments, compliance and consumer protection
Full cashless with the possibility of disputes and returns; prohibition of P2P mediation.
Default limits (deposit/time/loss) with an increase only after in-depth KYC and income verification.
UI fuses: session timers, pop-up reminders, "reality check," visible spending history.
Centralized country-level self-exclusion with cross-operator power.
Strict advertising code: without "easy wins," the target excludes minors/vulnerable groups; time and channel constraints.
6) Operator input model
Local licenses with obligations for hiring and training, data localization of critical journals and participation in RSP (Responsible Gambling) funds.
"White list" of content providers (certification by laboratories).
Industry Ombudsman: an independent instance of quick player-operator disputes (SLA, binding decisions).
7) Risks and countermeasures
Social: debt spirals, dependence → default limits, help lines, financing of therapy, "player-pause" can be activated in 1 click.
Regulatory capture: transparency, management rotation, public protocols, open data.
Outflow into the shadows: adequate taxes/commissions, fast onboarding and payments in the "white" sector, technical blocking of the underground.
Cybersecurity: mandatory standards (ISO 27001), back-office anomaly monitoring, bug bounty.
Responsibility for minors: strict age control, recognition of documents, fines for violations.
8) Launch Roadmap (3-4 years)
Year 0-1 - White Paper and Law
Public consultations, impact assessment, draft law, creation of a regulator and IT core, choice of laboratories and ombudsman.
Year 1-2 - "Low Risk" Pilot
Lottery + "light bets" with small limits; API reporting in real time; quarterly public reports on harms/benefits.
Year 2-3 - Content with RNG
Connection of certified casino content, limited live, caps for bonuses; stress tests of payments and KYC.
Year 3-4 - Fine tuning
By metrics - either expansion (poker/virtual views) or pause/collapse. Implementation of cross-operator self-exclusion and a single limit base.
9) Success metrics (besides money)
Social: proportion of self-excluded, average deposits, calls to the hotline, duration of sessions.
Enforcement: Reducing underground (raids/seizures), offshore complaints/fraud.
Quality of service: the speed of verification and payments, the share of resolved disputes on time.
Fiscal: predictability of fees, share of earmarked contributions, cost of supervision vs. revenues.
ESG: share of local hiring, training programs, contribution of operators to public infrastructure.
10) What you definitely shouldn't do
Launch an online market without a working regulator and real-time reporting.
Allow aggressive bonuses/credit play.
Complicate taxes to the extent that the "shadow" becomes more attractive than the "white" market.
Open live casinos and highly volatile products before evaluating the effects of "Phase 1-2."
Allow anonymous payments and gray "conclusions through intermediaries."
11) FAQ (short)
Do you need an online market for money? Money will be only with strong institutions; otherwise it is an accelerator of social costs.
Is it possible to restrict access only to tourists? Theoretically, yes, but you have to solve the issues of residency, geo-control and leaks underground.
When to connect mobile apps? After the stability of the web kernel and the integration of all fuses (limits/self-exclusion/ombudsman).
Conclusion
The potential of online gambling in Cuba, if opened, does not depend on the size of the demand, but on the quality of the institutions. The correct sequence is first the regulator and payments, then the "low risk" pilot, then a cautious expansion if the data confirms the manageability of the harm. This approach makes it possible to turn a possible market from a source of problems into a source of controlled fiscal returns when prioritizing the health of citizens and the country's reputation.