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Prediction: 2030 - will Cuba remain a "casino-free country"? (Cuba)
Since 1959, Cuba has been living in a paradigm of a complete ban on commercial gambling - both offline and online. The question is "what will happen by 2030?" is not divination but scenario analysis: how politics, institutions, tourism and fintech can affect the trajectory. Below are three realistic scenarios, their triggers and consequences, as well as indicators by which one can judge whether the country is moving towards maintaining the ban or towards limited experiments.
1) What pulls the status quo and what shakes it
Forces of inertia (for maintaining the ban)
1959 ideological continuity and symbolic role.
Lack of a ready-made supervision infrastructure (regulator, RNG audit, KYC/AML, ombudsman).
Reputational risks for the "culture, safety, family vacation" brand.
The social costs of gambling markets, which are difficult to explain to society.
Potential drift factors
Need for new fiscal revenues and foreign exchange earnings.
Competition for a tourist with neighbors (Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico).
Shadow and offshore pressure: The "better controlled pilot than underground" argument.
Technological maturity (payments, analytics, age control), making supervision "realizable."
2) Three scenarios by 2030
Scenario A - Status Quo (Basic)
Cuba remains a "country without a casino."
Legal regime: a complete ban offline and online, targeted raids against the underground.
Tourism: betting on beaches, culture, MICE without gambling; the evening check is raised by the stage and gastronomy.
Economics: There is no fiscal revenue from gambling, but there is no spending on complex supervision; the risk of leaks through offshore remains, but the scale of the underground is fragmented.
Society: low visibility of ludomania, discussion about legalization is episodic.
Probability: high, unless there is a major political and economic turn.
Scenario B - Spot Pilots (Limited Resort/Lottery Formats)
1-2 experimental zones or low-risk state formats appear.
Legal regime: special law on the pilot, hard perimeter, age control, prohibition of credit game.
Product: gosloteria/instant runs and/or one integrated resort casino with limits on hours and bets.
Institutions: a regulator is created, auditors are selected, an ombudsman and a hotline are launched.
Fiscally: modest but predictable receipts, trust funds for addiction prevention and sports.
Society: enhanced risk communication, harm monitoring; the country's reputation is under surveillance.
Probability: medium-low; will require political will and ready-made day-to-start institutions.
Scenario C - "Wider but under glass" (digitally supervised adjustable model)
A limited, but already noticeable industry under tight IT control.
Legal regime: licenses for 2-3 resorts and an ultra-limited online segment (after the pilot).
Institutes: real-time transaction registry, cross-operator self-exclusion, strict advertising code, ISO security standards.
Fiscally: tangible returns at a moderate GGR rate; tax architecture without "cascades."
Risks: crushing compliance, the danger of regulatory seizure, the need for a "red button" for a pause.
Probability: low by 2030 without significant liberalization of the economy and external reversals.
3) Fork indicators (what to track annually)
4) Consequences of each scenario
For the budget
A: neutral; there is no income and no heavy supervision costs.
B: moderate fees + regulator costs; predictability is important.
C: higher fees and higher cost of supervision; transparency is critical.
For tourism
A: growth through culture/gastro/events; without a "game" magnet.
B: Point upside in pilot area, risk of "window effect."
C: a more visible upside in clusters, but also higher reputational risks.
For society
A: Low visibility of harm, periodic shadow.
B: help lines required, limits by default, honest statistics.
C: need a mature system of responsible play and auditing.
5) "Red lines" that cannot be crossed even with a pilot
Launch without a working regulator and ombudsman.
Anonymous payments and I/O intermediaries.
Aggressive bonuses and credit play.
Opaque taxes that stimulate going into the shadows.
Ads targeting vulnerable groups and minors.
6) Recommended position for 2025-2030 (if the discussion does go)
1. First institutions, then products: law, regulator, IT core, auditors.
2. "Low risk" pilot: lottery/one resort with caps on deposits, playing time and hard KYC.
3. Harm metrics are more important than revenue: self-exclusion, circulation, average deposits, dispute rate.
4. Right to "emergency pause": the ability to stop a pilot without legal labyrinths.
5. ESG and localization: personnel training, local supplies, fund share for addiction prevention.
7) Short FAQ
Is "full discovery" likely by 2030? Low. Without systemic liberalization and mature institutions, this is unlikely.
And the point pilot? It is possible if a regulator, law and payment rails with KYC/AML appear.
Offshore and crypto - an alternative? No, it isn't. Illegal and risky; are not relevant to the issue of legalization.
Is it possible to develop tourism without a casino? Yes I did. Music, gastronomy, MICE, ecotourism and retro aesthetics ensure the growth of the "evening check" without bets.
By 2030, the most likely outcome is that Cuba remains a "country without a casino" (scenario A). The scenario of point pilots (B) is possible only with a clear political will and ready-made institutions, and the "wide" model (C) looks unrealistic without a serious transformation of the economy and supervision. The key to adequate policy is honest data, strong fuses and the priority of public health over fast incomes.