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Prospects for legalization: myth or reality? (Cuba)
After the 1959 revolution, Cuba lives in a paradigm of a complete ban on commercial gambling: casinos are closed, online gambling is not licensed. The question periodically arises: is partial legalization possible - for the sake of tourism, taxes or control over shadow activity? The answer is not binary. Below is a sober analysis of the pros and cons, possible formats and realistic scenarios until 2030.
1) Current base: from prohibition to "closed window"
There is no regulator and no licenses for casinos/bookmakers/lotteries/online casinos.
Cultural and political lens: the game is interpreted as the "legacy of the vicious showcase" of pre-war Havana.
Suppression practice: underground formats (home games, pain) are suppressed.
Conclusion: the starting position is tough, and the status quo itself does not lead to liberalization.
2) Potential drivers of legalization (if it ever becomes a topic)
1. Fiscal stimulus: taxes on GGR and licensing as a source of budget revenues.
2. Tourist multiplier: integration "resort + entertainment" can lengthen the average check and season.
3. Shadow control: translating some of the demand from underground into an adjustable plane with responsible play tools.
4. Techno infrastructure: the growth of digitalization of payments and e-KYC theoretically simplifies supervision.
5. Regional examples: Dominican Republic, Colombia, Puerto Rico show models of "regulated accessibility."
3) Stop factors and why "no" is also rational
Ideological continuity: Prohibition is an important symbol of political identity.
Social risks: fears of ludomania, inequality and corruption.
Management resource: licensing requires strong institutions (supervision, AML, information security) that need to be built over the years.
Geopolitics and sanctions: interaction with international payment rails and large providers is complicated.
4) Stakeholder map
State: balance between budget/tourism and social agenda.
Travel industry and hotels: see the potential of the "evening economy," but are afraid of reputational risks.
Financial sector/fintech: technically capable of building KYC/AML, but needs clear rules and partners.
Society and NGOs: focus on the risks of addiction, consumer protection, transparency.
International operators: interest in the resort model is possible only with predictable rules.
5) How neighbors did it: lessons from the region
Dominican Republic: licenses for casino hotels + lottery ecosystem + online control - bet on tourism.
Colombia: the first in the region to debug online licensing and supervision; emphasis on responsible play and payment control.
Puerto Rico: a narrow but premium segment, a bundle with MICE and cruise tourism.
Lesson: successful cases rely on three whales - a strong regulator, transparent taxes, payment discipline.
6) Possible forms of legalization (if the topic ever moves)
1. State (or state-concession) lottery
Pros: controlled, social contributions.
Cons: low multiplier without tourism; risk of clandestine takes.
2. Limited resort licenses (1-3 properties)
Pros: point tourist effect, controlled pilot.
Cons: high compliance requirements, risks of "special conditions."
3. Online sandbox for betting/gaming with hard KYC/AML
Pros: quick rule setup, telemetry tracking, limits.
Cons: we need payment rails and partners, the risk of offshore competition.
4. "Social games without money" model (imitation extension)
Pros: No fiscal/social shocks.
Cons: does not solve the issue of underground and taxes.
7) What the "day before the start" should be ready to avoid repeating mistakes
Regulator with a mandate and IT architecture: event register (bet_placed, deposit, within, self_exclusion, etc.), reporting API, risk modules.
Responsible game by design: deposit/time limits, cooling-off, self-exclusion, showcase of player chances and expenses.
Payments/KYC/AML: mandatory identity verification, transaction monitoring, clear return and complaint procedures.
Taxes and audits: simple GGR tax formula, independent RNG test laboratories, annual provider certification.
Communication: explain to society "why" and "how we control," publish harm/benefit metrics.
8) Risks even with a "correct" start
"Regulatory capture" (lobbying at the expense of transparency).
Leakage into the shadows at too high a fiscal rate.
Reputational shocks (scandals, addiction) without assistance programs.
Geopolitical restrictions on calculations and content/payment providers.
9) Scenarios to 2030
A) Conservative (basic)
The ban persists; emphasis on cultural/historical tourism.
The underground remains focal, prevention and cyber surveillance are intensifying.
Discussions of legalization arise situationally, there are no solutions.
Probability: High.
B) Limited normalization
A pilot of a state-supported lottery or a single resort experiment under strict supervision.
In the online part, a research sandbox is possible without a mass launch.
Probability: medium/low; possible under an explicit political mandate.
C) Regional integration "through tourism"
Complex program "resort + event + limited casino," agreements with international auditors/payment partners.
Public KPIs on harm/benefits, regular reporting.
Probability: low at current introductory.
10) Indicators that "something is changing"
The emergence of a draft law/decree on lottery/licenses.
Creation of a regulatory body or unit with a mandate for gambling.
Pilot of addiction monitoring and assistance programs (hotlines, clinics).
Public MOUs with payment/audit providers.
Publication of the consumer protection roadmap (limits, self-exclusion, RTP transparency).
11) If suddenly the course changes: a brief roadmap
1. Phase 0 - preparation: advisory council (health care, NGOs, tourism, financial sector), white paper with options.
2. Phase 1 - "low risk": lottery/instant draws, independent audit, responsible play fund.
3. Phase 2 - resort pilot: 1-2 objects, closed per-property report, limits, strict marketing code.
4. Phase 3 - selective online: sandbox with hard KYC, day/month limits and real-time API reporting.
5. Phase 4 - correction: public metrics, adjustment of tax/limit rates, expansion or curtailment.
On the horizon until 2030, the legalization of gambling in Cuba looks more like a "myth with windows of opportunity" than a foregone conclusion. The basic scenario is to keep the ban. Nevertheless, narrow forms (state-supported lottery, single resort pilot or online sandbox) are theoretically possible with a clear political decision and willingness to invest in supervision, consumer protection and payment infrastructure. If there are no such signals, the "window" remains closed, and the discussion remains academic.