Haiti - forecast to 2030

Forecast to 2030 (Haiti)

1) Starting point 2024-2025 (absolute dates are important)

The economy contracted for six consecutive years and, according to the World Bank, fell by -4.2% in 2024 and is expected to decline by another -2.2% in 2025 due to violence, political uncertainty and inflation. Tax revenues shrank to ~ 5.2% of GDP (2024).

Security: in September-October 2025, gang control over a significant part of the capital remains; on October 9-10, 2025, gunfire disrupted a leadership meeting at the National Palace.

Humanitarian situation: as of October 8, 2025, the number of displaced children has almost doubled in a year; 6 + million people need help.

HOPE/HELP trade preferences (the basis of clothing exports to the United States) ended at the end of September 2025, which carries the risk of a sharp drop in employment and exports.

The payment ecosystem is rapidly digitalized (BRH, MonCash, SPIH); this is important for future financial inclusion and taxation.

Diaspora remittances remain an anchor: their level fluctuates around ~ 19% of GDP (2019-2023), and in absolute amounts in 2024 - historically high values. For 2026, a new tax in the United States on remittances is being discussed, which could reduce revenues.

2) Key forks 2025-2026 setting trajectory to 2030

1. Security and institutions. The success of the international "Gang Suppression Force" and the transition to an elected government until February 2026 (the term discussed in the UN Security Council and analysts) are critical to restoring investor confidence.

2. Textiles and exports. If HOPE/HELP is not extended/replaced with an equivalent, the risks of deindustrialization and unemployment increase dramatically.

3. Remittances and financial inclusion. Any increase in the cost of transfers to the United States from January 1, 2026 will hit consumption and poverty; can be compensated by digital channels and competition from providers.

3) Scenarios to 2030

A) Baseline (stain stabilization, partial recovery)

Background (2025-2027): limited progress on safety in green corridors, partial resumption of industry in swap zones, SME point grants; textile preferences are partly replaced by temporary measures; digital payments and MonCash expand the collection of indirect taxes.

Trajectory: after the bottom of 2025 - the transition to 0-1% of the average annual growth in 2026-2027, then 1.5-2% in 2028-2030 due to the assembly of light industry, construction, and domestic demand.

Risks: energy outages (Peligre attacked in May 2025 showed vulnerability), high inflation.

KPI 2026–2030:

reducing the share of "red zones" in Port-au-Prince by 30-40%;
return of at least 50% of the pre-crisis volume of clothing exports;
growth of non-cash payments in retail ≥15 pp (MonCash/SPIH).

B) Optimistic ("three-key lock": security + preferences + reforms)

Background: sustained safety improvement by the end of 2026, relaunch of international cruises and point tourism in 2027-2028, extension/replacement of HOPE/HELP; launch of targeted infrastructure projects (energy, roads to UNESCO sites).

Trajectory: 2.5-3.5% average annual growth in 2027-2030; drivers - clothing and assembly plants, small tourism in the northern cluster (Cap-Haitien - Milot - Labadi), crafts and creative industries (Jacmel), agricultural processing for the domestic market.

Social effect: moderate poverty reduction, youth employment growth; tax revenues are restored to the ~ of 8-9% of GDP by 2030 (from a low base of 2024).

KPI:

elections and sustainable functioning of the government until Q2 2026;
a new U.S. apparel market access regime through 2026-2027;
partial return of cruises/charters by 2028 (with sustainable safety).

C) Stress scenario (prolonged instability + external shocks)

Prerequisites: fading international mission, lack of progress on elections, final departure of orders in clothes, rise in price/tax on remittances in the United States from January 1, 2026 without compensators.

Trajectory: continuation of stagflation; falling industrial employment and rising migration pressures; GDP in 2030 is below the level of 2024.

KPI triggers:

new mass blackouts (Peligre vulnerability);
repeated disruptions of government meetings due to shooting/sieges of areas of the capital.

4) Candidate industries for the role of "locomotives"

1. Textiles/clothing - subject to the restoration of preferences to the US market (HOPE/HELP replacement) and stabilization of labor zones. Otherwise - a sharp decline.

2. Digital finance and payments - expanding MonCash/SPIH + simplifying KYC will increase cashless turnover, improve tax collection and reduce transaction costs for SMEs.

3. Small tourism and creativity - after safety: northern cultural and cruise cluster (UNESCO facilities), Jacmel (art events), Ile-a-Vash (eco-boutiques). (Depends on safety signals and transport accessibility.)

4. Agro and processing - import substitution of basic products, small cooperatives, cold chains; "green corridors" of logistics will be required.

5. Construction and urban infrastructure - restoring housing and public infrastructure while accessing financing.

5) Remittances as a "macro pillow"

Households depend on diaspora transfers; historically, this ~ 15-20% of GDP (estimates from WDI and comparable sources). Any new tax in the United States from January 1, 2026 - the risk of lower consumption and increased poverty; mitigation - promoting competition from digital providers, reducing fees and a regulatory roadmap for fintech in Haiti.

6) Energy as a growth condition

The attack and shutdown of the Peligr hydroelectric station in May 2025 showed a systemic risk: without protecting the critical infrastructure, there will be no sustainable recovery. Priority - mixed generation (solar/DGP/microgrids), guarded substations and predictable tariffs for industrial parks.

7) Roadmap 2025-2030 (pragmatic minimum)

2025–2026: Security-first. Safe corridors, strengthening the National Police + international mission; KPIs are quarterly public.

2026: Institutes. Elections and budget rules (single treasury account, "online cash desks"), publication of the subsidy register.

2026-2027: Export. HOPE/HELP replacement negotiations, political risk insurance for industrial zones.

2026-2028: Financial inclusion. Scaling MonCash/SPIH, provider competition, reducing transfer fees; "sandbox" for fintech services.

2027-2030: Tourism-small clusters. North/Jacmel/Ile-a-Vash - only after a steady improvement in security; quality standards, guide training, access infrastructure.

8) What to track every quarter (KPI panel)

1. Security: the share of the territory of the capital under state control; the number of incidents per 100 thousand inhabitants.

2. Economy: quarterly industry index; clothing exports; tax revenue/GDP.

3. Social block: the number of internally displaced; poverty rate (according to household surveys).

4. Finance: volume of transfers (in USD), average commission; share of non-cash payments in retail.

The trajectory until 2030 is not fatal, but conditionally dependent. If in 2025-2026 it is possible to stabilize security, restore institutional manageability and return access to the US market for clothing, Haiti will have a chance of growth of 2.5-3.5% in 2027-2030 (optimistic scenario). Without these "three keys," the country will face weak stagnation or recession with an aggravation of the humanitarian crisis. Politicians and partners should act on the principle of "minimum, but real plan": security → institutions → export/financial inclusion - with strict quarterly KPIs and public reporting.

Date Note: All specific dates (Sept. 2025; Jan 1, 2026; 2030) are listed to eliminate confusion and correspond to sources at the time of October 10, 2025.