Income from gambling and its share in the economy (Honduras)

💡 Context: in Honduras, the legally observable part of the industry is offline casinos/gambling halls, bingo and lottery products. Online games for private operators remain in the "gray zone," so a significant share of demand flows to international sites and is not reflected in official statistics. This is important to take into account in any assessment of the income and share of the sector in the economy.

1) What are the revenues of the industry

Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR): Bets minus winnings. Base for most calculations.

Net Gaming Revenue (NGR): GGR minus bonuses/promo/jackpot contributions.

Non-core revenue: bar, restaurant, event tickets, merch.

Taxes and fees: licenses/patents, GGR tax/turnover (depending on the product), deductions from large lottery winnings, local fees.

Indirect effects: tourism, transport, security, cleaning, creative industries, marketing.

2) Channels that give "visible" and "invisible" income

Visible (counted):

Offline casinos/lounges - slots, electronic tables, sometimes live tables.
Lotteries and bingo - wide retail, mass involvement, understandable rules of draws and payments.

Partially/unaccounted for:

Online for private operators - due to the lack of a local license, part of the GGR goes outside the country (it is poorly reflected in statistics or not at all).
P2P activities (informal poker games, bets) - have a local turnover, but rarely get into official reports.

3) How to estimate the sector's share in the economy: a simple technique

1. Collect visible GGR: offline casinos/halls + bingo + lotteries (according to open data of operators/regulators/municipalities, if available).

2. Add non-core revenue (F&B, events) - usually 5-20% of offline GGR in "compact" markets.

3. Rate the "leak" online: the expert range for countries without a local license is 0. 1–0. 4% of GDP in the form of "gray" gross turnover of rates, which is equivalent to ~ 30-60% of the visible offline GGR in emerging markets. The specific share needs to be specified according to payment data and surveys of operators.

4. Add the direct contribution (NGR/GGR with adjustments) and indirect contribution (tourism and services multipliers - conservatively x1. 3–x1. 6 to pure gaming NGR for seaside/urban areas).

5. Divide by nominal GDP → get the share of the sector in GDP.

6. Build scenarios (see below), varying the parameters: the share of "gray" online, the growth of tourism, changes in the tax burden.

💡 Note: without official online licensing, the final share is underestimated - part of economic activity occurs in the country (players, marketing, support), but monetization and taxes go abroad.

4) Taxes and budget revenues (in general terms)

License/registration fees for offline.

GGR/Sales Taxes (may vary by product)

Deductions from large winnings in lotteries and bingo - usually occur when making a prize.

Income/social payments from employment in casinos/halls, as well as VAT/taxes in F&B and services.

5) Employment and multipliers

Direct jobs: hall operators, dealers/croupiers, management, security, cashiers, F&B, marketing.

Indirect employment: equipment suppliers, IT contractors, cleaning, security, transport, advertising agencies, artistic market (live music/video production).

6) Tourism and cross-selling

The Caribbean coast and Bay Islands give an increase in evening demand: "beach/diving during the day - casino/show in the evening."

Cruises and short city vacations increase the proportion of "small checks," but frequent visits.

Hotel + casino packages, mini-tournaments, live music and gastronomy expand the spending basket.

7) Risks and bottlenecks for the revenue base

Gray online: turnover goes abroad → the budget receives less taxes, statistics are distorted.

Payment barriers: card deviations, high costs of cross-border transactions.

Infrastructure: the quality of the Internet and security affects the demand for live games and the duration of visits.

Financial literacy: losses and reputational risks grow without responsible practices.

8) Growth Drivers 2025-2030

1. Regulatory progress in the online segment → "whitewashing" of part of the GGR, growth in budget revenues, accounting for statistics.

2. Tourism and cruises on the Caribbean coast → an increase in evening revenue and F & B.

3. Digital payments (e-wallets, stablecoins) → reduction of failures, acceleration of conclusions.

4. Content localization (Spanish es-419, cultural topics) → better retention and frequency of visits.

5. Omnichannel: a bunch of offline clubs with digital missions/tournaments → LTV growth.

9) Scenarios of income and share in the economy (qualitatively)

Basic (status quo):

Offline growth is moderate, online remains "gray."
The sector's apparent share of GDP is low, but with a sustained F&B and tourism effect.
The budget receives stable but limited revenues.

Optimistic (online reform/licensing):

"Whitewashing" part of the GGR, growth in official statistics, expansion of employment.
Uniform KPIs appear (GGR, NGR, ARPU, share of mobile sessions, tax revenues).
The share of the sector in GDP is noticeably increasing, especially in tourist regions.

Conservative (prolonged pause):

The share of the sector in official GDP remains underestimated, real turnover continues to be lost κ offshore online.
Investments in content and studios are targeted, with an emphasis on offline bingo/lotteries and bar formats.

10) What to read and how to manage (KPI panel)

GGR/NGR by channels: casino, halls, bingo, lotteries, (if available) regulated online.

Share of F&B and events in total turnover.

Taxes/fees: plan-actual, share in local budgets.

Travel metrics: share of hotel/cruise guests, average evening check, dwell time.

Payments: Transaction approval, average fee, cashout rate.

Responsible game: the share of accounts with limits, appeals to support, the share of voluntary self-exclusion.

11) Revenue growth recommendations

Standardize "hotel + casino" packages in tourist areas; arrange by season and cruise date.

Make payments easier: Keep "three whales" - card + e-wallet + stablecoin; explain the fees/networks clearly.

Localize content: missions and tournament nets for carnivals (La Ceiba), cultural themes (Copan, garaifuna).

Promote the responsible game: limits, "timeouts," visible tips in onboarding.

Get ready for online regulation: GGR/NGR reporting, KYC/AML procedures, RNG and live studio certification.

12) FAQ (short)

Why are the official numbers low? Some online is not counted locally.

What is the main thing for the budget? GGR/turnover taxes and fees, plus indirect taxes via F & B/tourism.

Is online more profitable than offline? Marginality may be higher, but without a license, the benefit goes abroad and does not fall into the budget.

What will increase the sector's share of GDP the fastest? Online regulation and integration with tourism.

Today, the revenues of the gambling industry in Honduras are generated by offline and lottery-bing products, and a significant part of the potential online GGR remains out of local accounting. Hence the underestimated official share of the sector in the economy. In the horizon 2025-2030, the key to growth is regulatory progress on online games, increasing the availability and transparency of payments, linking with tourism and responsible play. This will make it possible to transfer part of the "shadow" turnover to the tax base, create new jobs and fix the real contribution of the industry to the country's GDP.