Casino Revenue (Mexico)

How to count "earnings": GGR vs NGR

• GGR (Gross Gaming Revenue) = bets − winnings (before taxes/costs).
• NGR/Net - after promo, fees and part of taxes.
• It is important to compare estimates within the same methodology: different reports in Mexico show different numbers precisely because of the basis (only online, online + offline, GGR vs "market value," etc.).

How much the market earns today (cut 2024-2025)

• ~ US $11.37 billion in 2024 with a forecast of US $40.64 billion by 2033 (rapid growth due to digital).
• Other reviews give more conservative: US $2.7 billion in 2024 for iGaming (digital segment), which explains the difference with the "entire market."

• ~ US $1.62 billion in 2024 from CAGR ~ 11.9% to 2030 (sport is the largest type).

Terrestrial network: scale and monetary contribution

• Legal halls ~ 380 (end 2023), operating under SEGOB/DGJS permits. The number varies due to openings/closings and license status.
• GGR drivers: slots (main contribution), electronic tables/bingo, sports book areas inside the halls, as well as tourist traffic (Cancun/Riviera Maya, Tijuana, CDMX).
• In 2024-2025, offline revenues recovered against the backdrop of tourism and events, but the dynamics strongly depend on the region and competitive environment (Caliente, PlayCity, Big Bola, Logrand, etc.). Generalized reviews indicate double-digit market growth rates in 2024.

Online and betting: who pulls growth

Betting on sports and online casinos is the main engine of growth: growth from 2017 to 2028 is estimated by industry media as a multiple (bets: ~ US $0.59 → 1.74 billion; online casinos: ~ US $0.16 → 1.29 billion).

Mobility and localization (MXN, Spanish interface, SPEI/CoDi) is key to conversion and session frequency.

Taxes and margins: IEPS 30% and project 50% (from 2026)

The IEPS base rate for games and draws today is 30%. The Economic Package 2026 proposes to increase to 50% and directly cover online and non-residents (providers from outside), which is being discussed by Congress in the fall of 2025.

If the rate is raised from January 1, 2026, operators will have to rebuild P&L (less promo, shifting RTP/limits, focus on retention instead of aggressive CPA). For the market, this may temporarily reduce NGR margins, but "whitewash" competition due to pressure on "gray" traffic.

What makes up casino income (unit-economics, enlarged)

Slots/video bingo: the most stable share of offline GGR; online - high-vol slots and tournament grids as a turnover driver.

Live games (roulette/DB/baccarat) offline and live-casino online: the lower advantage of the casino ⇒ the contribution to online bonus winning is often reduced.

Sports betting: high seasonality (MX League, boxing/MMA), strong cross-marketing with casinos.

Non-financial drivers: tourism (Cancun/Tijuana/CDMX), events and stadiums (Estadio/Hipódromo cluster in Tijuana) - raise evening traffic and check.

Forecast until 2030: what to put in the model

Growth scenario (online + offline): accelerated digitalization, SPEI/CoDi integration, mobile show formats and tournaments. Market agency estimates give double-digit CAGRs and targets of US $40.6 billion by 2033 with favorable regulation.

Risks: possible IEPS 50%, advertising/bonus restrictions, competition with offshore. com sites. Balance - through localization, responsible gambling, flexible pricing of bonuses.

Short answers (FAQ)

How many casinos in the country and does it affect revenues?

About 380 licensed halls (at the end of 2023). More halls - more physical coverage, but the share of online is growing faster than offline and increasingly affects the total GGR.

Why are there different amounts of income in the sources?

Different coverage of segments (the entire market vs only online), different bases (GGR vs "market value"), methods and periods. Hence - the range of US $1.6-2.7 billion (online) versus ~ US $11.37 billion (the entire market) in 2024.

What drives revenues the most in 2025?

Mobile betting and online casinos, integration of local payments (SPEI/CoDi), tourist traffic and events.

How will the IEPS increase to 50% affect?

Will reduce marginality (especially promo/bonuses), move the emphasis towards retention and "economical" mechanics (cashbacks/missions), and also increase incentives to localize and work in the "white" circuit.

In 2024, the entire gambling market in Mexico was estimated at about US $11.37 billion, while the online segment - ~ US $1.6-2.7 billion (spread due to methods).

Growth 2025-2030 is set by mobile and online betting/casino; offline is supported by tourism and flagship clusters.

Fiscal factor: IEPS 30% → project 50% from 2026 - the main risk/restructuring of P&L and the driver of the "whitewashing" of the market.