Offline vs Online (Mexico)

1) Base for comparison: what we consider a "market"

The entire market (offline + online): estimated at ≈ US $11.37 billion in 2024 with a forecast of up to US $40.64 billion by 2033 (market value/GGR according to the Astute Analytica model).

Online segment (iGaming, including bets): US $1.62 billion in 2024 with a forecast of US $3.16 billion by 2030; the largest type is sports betting.

💡 What does this mean for the "division of the pie": if we take 11.37 billion as "all together," and 1.62 billion as "net online" for 2024, then offline + offline rates in the halls give an order ~ US $9.7 billion, and online - ~ 14% of the total volume. But keep in mind: different sources use different methods (GGR/NGR/market value and different coverage), which is why the shares vary.

There are also conservative reviews, where the "entire industry" for 2024 is estimated at only US $2.7 billion - this is usually about a digital slice or a narrow model, and not a full offline + online. Do not confuse such estimates with the "common market."

2) Offline Today: Network and Money

There are> 350 licensed casinos in the country (DGJS data for 30. 09. 2025); individual industry reports mention 347 halls as the "core" of the network.

According to industry reports, the revenue of 347 land-based casinos in 2023 amounted to about US $1.4 billion (excluding the entire spectrum of bets/online).

💡 Why "offline" is still more for money: in addition to slots and tables in the halls, offline betting revenue, F&B, "cluster" revenues of travel zones (Tijuana, Cancun, CDMX) enter the general market - all this raises the offline share in large models. In parallel, the "wide ecosystem" of the industry is growing: 5,256 economic units in the industry (DATE-2025).

3) Online: Growth faster than market

iGaming Mexico in 2024 - US $1.6169 billion, CAGR ~ 11.9% (2025-2030); sports is the largest and fastest growing subcategory.

Alternative sources draw a "high" trajectory (iGaming ≈ US $2.7 billion in 2024), hence the discrepancies in the news; the reason is different methodological baskets.

Drivers online: 83% + internet coverage, mobility, local payments (SPEI/CoDi), strong. mx brands and the sports agenda - they are the ones that accelerate the flow of revenue to digital. (See also Internet audience and tourism data in related materials.)

4) Why the numbers "do not beat" between sources (and how to compare correctly)

1. Calculation base: GGR vs NGR vs "market value."

2. Coverage: online only vs online + offline; para-game income items are included/not included.

3. Period: different years/half-years and exchange rate assumptions.

Comparison rule: Keep one technique within one source. For example, we take Astute: 11.37 billion (all) → 40.64 billion by 2033. For online - Grand View: 1.6169 billion → 3.1565 billion by 2030. Then the dynamics and shares are read without "jumping."

5) Taxes: what changes IEPS-2026

The Economic Package-2026 proposes to raise the IEPS for games and draws from 30% to 50% and directly extend it to online and non-residents (place-of-taxation - the player's location in Mexico). If Congress approves by October 31, 2025, the norms will come into force on January 1, 2026.

Implications for shares:

Offline: the margin on slots/tables will sag, but tourist clusters (Cancun, Tijuana, CDMX) partly compensate for the flow of guests.
Online: marketing and bonuses will become more economical; the incentive to "whitewash" (local. mx partnerships, MXN payments) - this can increase the "legal" online share in the market structure, despite the higher tax rate.

6) Where offline is "stronger" and where online is "faster"

Offline wins in absolute amounts (especially in the "entire market" models): the contribution of halls, F&B and stadium/resort clusters creates a powerful base.

Online wins by pace: double-digit CAGR to 2030, peak - sports + mobile casino; however, the dependence on regulation (IEPS/advertising/KYC) is higher.

7) Practical conclusions for business

Offline operators

Strengthen "bundles" with tourism and sports (match days, collaborations with stadiums/hotels), develop cross-sales online. mx-licenses.

Recalculate P&L under IEPS 50%: less "heavy" bonuses, more cashbacks/missions and event marketing.

Online Operators (.mx)

Accelerate the localization of payments (SPEI/CoDi) and product lobbies, tighten RG tools (limits, self-exclusion) - this will be required both regulatory and retention.

Reorient the focus from CPA to retention/ARPU, roadmap - live shows, tournaments, personal selections.

8) Short "TL; DR" by numbers and shares

All together (offline + online): ≈ US $11.37 billion (2024) → US $40.64 billion by 2033. Offline in this model remains most of the pie.

Online (iGaming): US $1.62 billion (2024) → US $3.16 billion by 2030, fast trajectory, leader - bets.

Offline network:> 350 casinos with valid licenses; industry reports often refer to 347 halls as the working core.

Tax factor 2026: The IEPS 50% draft on bets/draws, including online and non-residents, could reshape the promo economy and push online whitewashing.

Today, the offline segment (in the broad sense of "the entire market") remains larger in absolute income, while online is growing faster and increasing its share. In 2024, it looked like ~ US $11.37 billion of the total market versus ~ US $1.62 billion online; by 2030-2033, online will double, and the total market will multiply (with favorable regulation). The key fork is taxes 2026: if IEPS is raised to 50% and expanded to online/non-residents, companies will be forced to switch focus from "hard CPA" to retention, localization and responsible play - and this is how the balance will be redrawn offline vs online in Mexico.