The Future of Online Gambling (MX)

1) What we start from: the legal framework "in the present"

Online activities in Mexico are federally regulated by SEGOB/DGJS based on Ley Federal de Juegos y Sorteos (1947) and the 2004 Regulation; in November 2023, updates and clarifications to the regulations were published. This means: federal competence, permissive regime and the absence of an independent "online license" without a connection with the ground licensee.

2) Where regulation is headed (2025-2027)

Online codification. Profile reviews emphasize the need to "tighten" the norms to the reality of iGaming: online bets are already clearly regulated by the regulations, and some online casino products - through interpretation and by-laws. The trend is to institutionalize KYC/AML requirements, self-exclusion, advertising and partnerships with local licensees.

Access model for foreigners. And then the basic bundle: a foreign brand operates through a Mexican permit holder, and not "on its own." This sets the tone for market consolidation around large local groups.

3) Taxes: what changes and how it will hit the unit economy

The economic package for 2026 discusses an increase in IEPS for games and betting from 30% to 50%, and with coverage of the online sector. According to the business press and industry publications on September 6-11, 2025, the goal is to increase fees and strengthen the prevention of ludomania. If the rate is raised, the operators' margin will decrease, the "price" of bonuses and marketing will increase, and some titles may be reallocated according to RTP/limits.

Context 2024: Before the 2026 initiatives, the IEPS base rate for the sector was 30%, plus ISRs and other fiscal obligations were in effect.

4) Payments and fintech: what will become standard

SPEI/CoDi will remain the "gold standard" of I/O for residents: low fees, understandable traceability for compliance. Online, it will be even more closely integrated into the cash register. mx-brands.

Cards (Visa/Mastercard) - instant input; with the growth of IEPS, operators will more actively stimulate bank transfers due to cost.

Cash over networks (OXXO) - still an important "cash bridge" for a deposit; to output - mainly SPEI.

Cryptocurrencies/stablecoins are a niche but growing channel for advanced players; expect tough KYC and transaction triage on the operator/provider side.

(The logic of payment localization is confirmed by industry reports on the digitalization of payments and the growth of the iGaming market by 2030-2035)

5) Fighting the "gray" segment: what will change "on the ground"

Strengthening the tax and regulatory framework will be paired with a focus on local presence: .mx domains, Mexican licensee indication, local payment methods, responsible play policy and available complaint channels. This narrows the space for. com sites without Mexican permission and increases the cost of "bypassing" for marketing partners.

6) Product and content: how the showcase will change

Live casinos and show formats (multiplier roulette, card shows, wheels) will grow due to engagement and streaming culture; localization under ES/MXN - must-have.

Crash games/fast rounds will retain the hype, but will be under the scrutiny of compliance (limits, cooling, modes excluded from bonus wagering).

Tournaments/leaderboards (including grids like Drops & Wins) are one of the cheapest CPI retention drivers amid rising tax burdens.

Sports + casinos will remain the "engine" of traffic: football (League MX), boxing/MMA and cross-promo with live tables during match periods.

(A strong offline online ecosystem of market leaders is an indicator of this trend.)

7) Marketing and advertising: "less noise, more accuracy"

We expect a greater regulatory focus on age warnings, hours and advertising channels, geo-targeting and proof-of-consent for CRM. Bonuses will become "smarter": fewer huge welcome packages with heavy wagering, more cashback/missions with soft turnover and personal limits (against the background of IEPS 50%, this is economically rational).

8) ESG and responsible play: from declarations to metrics

• public reports on responsible gambling (self-exclusion, limits, conversion of time-out prompts);
• bilingual (ES/EN) support and how-to-play training;
• partnerships with DMO/cities for safe evening mobility (relevant for resorts and metropolitan areas).
• These practices will be supported by both internal policies and expected updates to SEGOB/DGJS requirements.

Scenarios to 2030 (pragmatic view)

Baseline (most likely)

IEPS is raised to 50% from 2026, but leaves benefits/adjustments for individual verticals.

Consolidation around large local groups and their partners; .mx domains strengthen the share, the "gray" segment narrows.

Product - emphasis on live shows, tournaments and local sports; bonuses - towards cashback and missions.

Optimistic

Instead of "tough" measures, they introduce a smart taxation scale and incentives for investing in RG/ESG and local employment; market growth is accelerating on the back of digital payments (SPEI/CoDi).

Stress scenario

Sharp tightening of advertising + high IEPS → traffic shift to offshore. com; the answer is blocklists, payment filters and campaigns to "whitewash" partners.

What players and operators should do "now"

To the players: to choose. mx platforms with explicit reference to SEGOB permission and local payment methods (SPEI/CoDi); Use deposit/time limits remember about the possible increase in the fiscal burden on bonuses/prizes from 2026.

Operators: plan P&L taking into account the IEPS 50% scenario, transfer the showcase to "economical" promotions (cashback/missions), deepen the localization of payments and RG tools, strengthen the legal structures of partnerships with ground licensees.

The Mexican online market is entering the "growing up" phase: more formalization, a higher fiscal rate, but also a cleaner competitive environment with an emphasis on local ones. mx brands. Those who combine regulatory discipline, local payments and high product dynamics - from live shows and tournaments to personalized missions and ESG metrics - will win. For players, this means more transparent rules, and for the industry, predictable growth with competent setup of the unit economy.