Development Forecast 2030 (Saint Vincent and the Grenadines)

1) Starting point: 2024-2025

Economics. After the recovery of 2022-2023. GDP is growing: the IMF estimated growth of 4.9% in 2024 against the background of tourism and infrastructure investments (including the port), inflation by the end of 2024 - about 2.5%; in "at-a-glance," the IMF forecast for real growth ~ 4.7% in 2025.

Scale of economy. GDP at current prices - ~ $1.16 billion (2024); population ~ 103.6 thousand (01. 2024).

Tourism. In 2025, SVG is among the fastest growing destinations in the Caribbean: for the half year + 17.3% of arrivals by 2024; the industry backdrop for the region is continued growth.

Infrastructure. The opening of Argyle International Airport (AIA) in 2017 strengthened international connectivity; in parallel, there is the Port Modernization Project in Kingstown (two phases, contractor Aecon), which will increase cargo and passenger traffic.

Risk management and financial sector. A fresh mutual assessment of CFATF/FATF (MER-2024) records progress in AML/CFT and the adjustment zone, which is important for fintech and offshore services.

2) Top drivers 2026-2030

Tourism + transport

Accessibility and routes. AIA provides direct flights and capacity, and the modernized port provides cruises and logistics for shipping/imports; this increases multipliers in hotels, food, sea transfers and crafts.

Regional background. According to the CTO, the Caribbean is maintaining an increase in arrivals - a base for building load and average checks.

Digital and mobile economy

Penetration depth. ~ 78% of residents use the Internet; The mobile channel is key for banks, public services and travel applications. This accelerates the transition of SMEs to non-cash and online booking.

Logistics and SMEs

Port + SME. Port infrastructure reform reduces logistics costs and improves access to imported raw materials/equipment for small businesses; this affects prices, employment and export niches (niche agricultural products, crafts).

Energy and sustainability

Energy update. Historically dependent on oil imports, the economy promotes energy efficiency and renewable energy (solar, hydro, wind); the geothermal project has suffered setbacks, but its relaunch/regional drilling cooperation is being discussed.

3) Key risks until 2030

Climate and disasters. The experience of the eruption of La Soufriere (2021) and Hurricane Beryl (2024) emphasizes vulnerability: damage in the region - hundreds of millions of dollars, tens of thousands of victims; funding for recovery through CCRIF/pough instruments remains limited. For SVG, this is the risk of breaking the growth trajectory.

Debt and fiscal space. For small island economies, natural disasters and large projects amplify debt risks; therefore, the quality of project selection and insurance/reserve mechanisms is critical. (See IMF vulnerability analyst ECCU).

External demand. The slowdown in the donor countries of the tourist flow (USA/Canada/Europe) affects the load and revenue.

4) Scenarios to 2030

Baseline (most likely)

Thesis. Moderately high growth based on tourism, port and mobile services, in the absence of major disasters.

Parameters. Real growth ~ 3.5-4.5% on average/year in 2026-2030; inflation closer to the 2-3% corridor; unemployment is gradually reduced due to services/construction/logistics.

Terms and Conditions. Completion of the scheduled port upgrade phase; AML/CFT measures after MER-2024; support for SMEs and digital payments; promoting energy efficiency.

Optimistic

Thesis. Overfulfillment in tourism (increase in capacity/flights), acceleration of the port program and the launch of new sea/air links, active digitalization of public services and SMEs.

Parameters. Average growth ~ 5% +; higher labor productivity due to logistics and fintech; rising tax revenues and investments in sustainability.

Triggers. Successful diversification of travel products, attraction of enterprises/container services, greater depth of mobile services and electronic payments.

Stress scenario

Thesis. Strong climate episode (hurricane/landslides) + weak external demand; port delays.

Parameters. Temporary recession (− 2... − 5% of GDP) in the year of the event, recovery in 6-8 quarters with access to insurance/PAF financing.

Mitigation. CCRIF/cut-bonds/contingent credit lines, accelerated recovery program with "build-back-better," targeted measures for farmers and SMEs.

5) Priority reforms and road map (short)

1. Port and adjoining logistics. Completion of work, digitalization of procedures (EDI, pre-clearing, slots), "single window."

2. Tourism 2. 0. Niche development: yacht, ecotourism, event; strengthening airlift/marketing relying on AIA and CTO data.

3. Mobile fintech and SMEs. Support for cashless payments and online sales; digital services for artisans/agro-SMEs. (Relies on a high level of online.)

4. Climate resilience. PAF tools (CCRIF/contingent loans), sustainable construction standards, reserve funds, fast procurement for emergencies.

5. Energy. Energy efficiency + distributed solar generation/mini-renewable energy; geothermal - only when improving geology/joint drilling solutions in the OEX.

6. Finsector/AML. Implementation of MER-2024 recommendations (including fintech/VA sectors) to reduce de-risking and reduce the cost of financing.

6) KPIs to watch annually (2026-2030)

Tourism: overnight stays, number of rooms, average check, share of direct international flights.

Logistics: container/vessel turnover time, processing cost, share of electronic declarations.

Figure: share of online payments in SMEs, penetration of mobile banking/public services.

Fiscal risks: PAF coverage, CCRIF/cut-bond insurance payments, recovery costs.

Energy: share of renewable energy in generation, САРЕХ/kW for solar projects, progress in energy efficiency.

With a basic trajectory, SVG is able to gain a foothold in sustainable growth ~ 4% per year until 2030 due to tourism, port modernization, mobile economy and SMEs, if we simultaneously increase climate stability and discipline in projects. In narrow optimism - 5% + with a successful combination of airlift, port efficiency and digitalization. The critical factor is preparedness for climate shocks and the high-quality implementation of the port program.