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Legalization potential in all states
After the abolition of PASPA (2018), the United States lives in the paradigm of "50 different markets": each state decides for itself whether to allow gambling products and on what terms. "Legalization in all states" is a beautiful, but in practice unattainable scenario in the short term. More realistically, the further expansion of sports betting and the gradual expansion of iGaming in those jurisdictions where political, legal and economic conditions coincide. Below is a sober estimate of the odds by vertical and state group.
1) Three different verticals - three different "difficulty levels"
Sports betting (online/retail): the easiest product to accept is reliance on fan culture, transparent reporting, fast fiscal returns.
Online casinos (iGaming): More politically and socially sensitive; requires a mature RG framework and consent to "digital Nevada" in a particular state.
Offline casinos/slots: related to zoning, construction, labor, infrastructure; often referendums and plebiscites.
2) The main "locks and keys" of legalization
Policy and law:- Constitutional restrictions (referendums are needed in a number of states).
- Tribal compacts: exclusivity of tribes per class III game; any innovations - through negotiations "state ↔ tribes."
- Lottery model: lotteries as an "umbrella" for interactive products (in response to or in parallel with private operators).
- Taxes/licenses vs. operator margin (too high rates stifle competition; too low - budget effect).
- Availability of offline base (resorts/track venues/arenas) and local business interest.
- Responsible play (self-exclusion, limits, aid funding).
- Advertising and youth advocacy.
- Public support (polls, sports/tourism/veterans coalitions, NGOs).
3) Geopolitical "grid" of states: who stands where
A) Almost "ready" for the next step
States with mature sports betting and/or offline, where iGaming is discussed regularly.
Typical features: strong regulator, compliance experience, developed tourism/online banking, neutral/positive media agenda.
What gets in the way: budget bidding (tax rates), competition for lobbies (tribes vs commerce), lawmakers "caution about" casinos on the phone. "
B) Swing
Conditions are heterogeneous: part of the elite "for" because of taxes and tourism, part - "against" for moral or competitive reasons.
Risks: compromises will be required - a limited list of games, a higher than average tax rate, strict advertising standards, pilots/sansets.
Life hack: start with sports + enhanced RG, later return to iGaming with reports on social effect.
C) "Complex" jurisdictions
States with strong cultural and religious prohibitions or constitutional barriers, where even sports are met with resistance.
Long-term forecast: legalization is unlikely before a change in the electoral coalition or special budget shocks.
Archetypes: Utah and Hawaii are systemic "no" for almost any form of commercial gambling.
4) Vertical No. 1 - sports betting: "almost everywhere," but not absolutely
Potential: close to saturation of the map, but large "holes" (giant states) remain.
What will decide success in the remaining:- Alignment of distribution model between tribes, lottery and private operators.
- Tax rate (high interest rates give income to the budget, but reduce the consumer value of the coefficients).
- Advertising and RG: control of "dark patterns," promo limits, unified registers of self-exclusion.
Verdict: "Legalization in all 50" in sports betting is theoretically possible in a long horizon, but practically - 1-2 stubborn exceptions will remain.
5) Vertical # 2 - Online Casino (iGaming): Slow Growth Corridor
Potential: high fiscal effect and stable income base, but higher political "price tag."
Catalysts:- Positive statistics from already legal states (taxes, employment, low consumer claims).
- Unified RG by design tools: limits, reality checks, one-click self-exclusion, visibility of chances/rules.
- Accurate geosegregation of traffic, protection of young people, strict moderation of advertising.
- Fears of "casinos in your pocket," pressure from retail operators without online focus, political cycle (elections).
- Verdict: in the horizon until 2030, it is more likely to expand to a limited number of additional states, and not "all 50."
6) Vertical No. 3 - offline casinos: about construction, jobs and referendums
Potential: where reindustrialization and tourism are needed, projects receive support, especially in the format of integrated resorts or racino (track + slots).
Barriers: local referendums/constituency votes, tribal and commercial project competition, NIMBY factor.
Verdict: Spot starts and upgrades - yes; "every state by Strip'y" is not.
7) Model roadmaps for states
Package "Start from sports"
1. Retail + online sports book, reasonable tax rate, 2-4 skin/operator per licensee.
2. Hard advertising (age filters, ban on "easy money"), RG fund ≥ 1% of GGR.
3. After 12-24 months - report: receipts, RG appeals, consumer complaints.
4. Discussing iGaming as a "second wave" if metrics and support approx.
Lottery Umbrella Package
1. The operator of sports/online games is a lottery (or she is a master licensee), private partners - through concessions.
2. The proceeds are directed to "social" articles (education, veterans) - increasing voter approval.
3. Register KPIs of availability, RG and transparency of coefficients.
Tribal Agreements + Online Package
1. Compact expansion: Tribes gain exclusive or online market share.
2. Joint campaigns of RG and tourism, a common loyalty wallet "oflayn↔onlayn."
3. State-tribal dispute arbitration mechanism (temporary panels/mediation).
8) Tax math: "sweet spot"
Sportbook: too high tax → worse odds and promo, "washing out" to neighboring jurisdictions/offshore.
iGaming: higher base stability → a higher rate is possible, but a competitive product economy is needed.
Licenses and fees are moderate, it is better to associate with KPIs on RG and investments in secure advertising.
9) Responsible play standards - political "fuse"
Single state self-exclusion portal (online/offline).
Deposit/loss/time limits, default reality checks.
Open format RG reporting, NGO funding and research.
Advertising control: verification of age, prohibition of "fix ROI," transparent T & Cs promos.
10) Technology as a pros argument
Geolocation and KYC banking class, fraud scoring, behavioral alerts RG.
Product transparency: info screens with rules/chances, RNG/payout audits by independent laboratories.
Cybersecurity: zero-trust, payment protection, data minimization.
11) Scenarios to 2030 (realistic)
1. Basic: Sports betting card adds multiple states; iGaming adds a limited number of "pioneer" jurisdictions; offline develops point. "All 50" is not.
2. Optimistic: economic crises/budget gaps accelerate the legalization of sports in 1-2 "heavy" states; iGaming gets 2-4 new markets; tribal compromises are expanding.
3. Conservative: negative ad/RG cases slow down processes; new legalizations are delayed until the next electoral cycles.
12) Practical conclusions
For Legislators/Regulators
Start with a model where RG is built in by default and there is an independent audit.
Choose a tax below "choking" but sufficient for steady receipts; plan budget stress tests.
Respect tribal rights: Negotiate online market share and joint programs.
For operators/suppliers
Build coalitions with local stakeholders (tribes, sports, tourism, NGOs).
Prepare "white-label" compliance packages and RG assistants; demonstrate the benefits of data, not slogans.
Be flexible by product (sports → iGaming) and by economy (promo/margin) under each jurisdiction.
For the public
Rely on the facts: where it is legal - there is higher protection of rights, there are help lines and arbitration.
Demand transparency of advertising and clear rules of self-restraint.
"Legalization in all 50 states" is not a near-term goal. However, a painted, responsible and technological approach allows you to expand the map where the interests of the state, tribes, business and society coincide. By 2030, the US will almost certainly see an almost solid sports betting map, a low-key but notable expansion of iGaming, and selective offline projects. The key to sustainability is sensible taxes, strong RG, transparency and respect for local specifics.