Popular sports for betting (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL)

In the United States, the lion's share of legal betting is collected by four "big" leagues: NFL (American football), NBA (basketball), MLB (baseball) and NHL (hockey). Each of them has its own calendar, pace and mathematics of markets. Below is a short but capacious guide to the main rates and features of analysis for beginners and advanced.

1) General types of markets

Moneyline (match win). Overtime/extra innings are possible for NBA/NHL/MLB; some NHL lines offer 3-way (including a "draw" in regulation time).

Spread/Runline/Puckline (handicap).

NFL/NBA - classic spread (± points).

MLB - Standard Runline -1. 5/+1. 5.

NHL — puckline -1. 5/+1. 5.

Totals (totals). Points (NFL/NBA), pucks (NHL), wounds (MLB). There are team/individual totals.

Props (prop rates). Individual stats: yards and touchdowns (NFL), points/rebounds/assists (NBA), strikeouts/hits/runs (MLB), throws/points/saves (NHL); team props (first down, hits, PP goals).

Futures (futures). Champion, conference/division winner, individual awards (MVP, Cy Young, Hart, etc.), seasonal win totals.

Live/SGP (same-game parlays). Bets during the game and constructors from several outcomes of one match (high correlation → high margin).

💡 Tip: Before you go into prop and SGP, learn to evaluate the main markets and understand how the line reacts to news.

2) NFL - low frequency, high news noise

Calendar and pace. A small number of matches (once a week for the team) makes each event a "super event" for the market. The lines "live" for a long time and move strongly from the news (QB, OL injuries, weather, corner injuries, etc.).

What to watch:

Quarterback and offensive line (OL). The value of the starting QB and the "pocket" defense are critical to the spread/total.
Play-calling and pace. Pace of attack, share of passes/clearances, red-zone efficiency, 4th-down aggression of the coach.
The composition of the defense: pass-rush, secondary, wound-stop. WR vs CB match-ups.
Weather. Wind and precipitation hit pass attacks and totals harder than cold itself.

Markets:

Spreads and totals are "heavy" lines (a lot of information).
Game props (yards/receptions/touchdowns) are often less effective, but sensitive to the player's role and game scripts.
Futures: Season wins, divisions - look for "overreactions" after prime time

Typical mistakes: reassessment of the "last week," OL/coordinators underestimation, playing against a large line movement for no reason.

3) NBA - frequent matches, volatility and "load management"

Calendar. A lot of games, back-to-backs, travel, rest/injury management. Star status news (Q/D/OUT) on match day changes the line in hours/minutes.

Key factors:

Pace & Space. Pace, thrashes, free-throws - the basic drivers of totals.
Rebounds/paint. Rebounds and effectiveness under the ring against small/large formulations.
Matchups and schemas. Switchability in defense, PnR coating, bench depth.

Markets:

Totals often move stronger than spreads (dependence on tempo/3PT variability).
Player props (points/rebounds/assists/trips) depend on minute-shade and usage; watch for rotation and foul trawl.
Live. Series 8-12 points are the norm; do not confuse "wounds" with a broken match.

Mistakes: blind faith in "trends in totals" without assessing the pace/composition, betting on a star without checking minutes and back-to-back status.

4) MLB - "pitcher chess" and offensive variance

Calendar. Regular season marathon with series of 3-4 games. The starting pitcher's output is the main driver of the line; the bullpen and schedule are the second most important.

What's important:

Starting pitchers: ERA - superficial; better to watch xERA, FIP, K-BB%, GB%, arsenal, splitters/sliders, order through the ruler (times through the order).
Bulpen: freshness, travel, recent loads of closer/setup men.
Park factors and weather: wind/humidity change totals, especially in "small" parks.
Splits: Left-handed/right-handed, home/away, vs specific pitching types.

Markets:

Runline -1. 5/+1. 5 is the standard instead of the classic head start.
Pitchers props: Strikeouts (K), Woakes, strikeouts/innings.
Totals: Sensitive to starters and wind.
Futures: Season wins, divisions, Cy Young/MVP.

Mistakes: betting "on the shape of the batters" in a short segment, ignoring the bullpen and weather shifts.

5) NHL - thin margins and goalkeeping role

Calendar. Frequent matches, goalkeeper changes, back-to-backs.

Key metrics:

5-на-5 xGF/xGA, Corsi/Fenwick, high-danger chances. It is important to separate the result from the process.
Goalkeeper: Current form and career level; field protection (allowed throws from hazardous areas) is no less important.
Special teams: majority/minority implementation strongly affects totals and series.

Markets:

Moneyline/3-way (tied to OT), puckline -1. 5.
Totals 5. 5–6. 5: Goalkeeper-sensitive and special teams.
Player props: shots on target (SOG), points, goalkeeper saves - often more effective than outcomes.

Errors: underestimation of backup goalkeepers and travel factors, blind following "series of wins/losses" without viewing 5-on-5 indicators.

6) How to read the line and move with the market

Closing line value (CLV). If you often "beat" the final line (your spread is better than closing) - a good sign of the quality of the assessment.

Margin and commission. Margins are higher on SGP/niche props; on the main lines - lower, but the competition of "smart money" is higher.

Timing. NFL often makes sense to play early (until the info is "stitched in"); NBA/NHL/MLB - Closer to the start to catch lineups/goaltenders/pitchers.

Limit emotions. Prime time and derbies are overheated by attention - look for value where there is less noise.

7) Tools and data (what to watch without "magic")

Baseline tempo/efficiency: DVOA/EPA (NFL), Offensive/Defensive Rating and Pace (NBA), FIP/xERA and bullpen usage (MLB), xGF/xGA and SOG (NHH L).

Scheduling context: back-to-back, 3-in-4, long-range outings.

Status news: official injury reports, start confirmations (SP in MLB, G in NHL), linups in NBA.

Weather: Especially for NFL/MLB (wind/precipitation/temperature).

Market scanner: compare the ratios of several licensed operators.

8) Responsible play and bankroll

1. Define a fixed bankroll and base rate size (often 0.5-1.5%).

2. Keep track of sports and market types.

3. Avoid dogons and highly correlated express trains "for excitement."

4. Use limits, timeouts and self-exclusion if you feel a loss of control.

9) Calendar cheat sheet

NFL: fall-winter regular season, 1 game/week for the team; playoffs - January, finals - February.

NBA: fall-spring, 3-4 games/week per team; playoffs in the spring and early summer.

MLB: Spring-fall, episodes almost daily; playoffs - autumn.

NHL: fall-spring, 3-4 games/week; playoffs in the spring and early summer.

The NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL give different "profiles" for betting: the NFL are rare but information-rich games; NBA - pace, news and rotations; MLB - pitcher-park duel; NHL - thin edges around goaltenders and 5-on-5 metrics. Master the base markets, follow the line-up news, count the margin and keep the bankroll discipline - and your betting will become manageable, not random.