The future of the industry

FSM starting conditions - no licensed casinos and bookmakers, small and geographically fragmented market, budget priorities in infrastructure and basic services.

Until 2030, three scenarios are possible:

1. Status quo: no licensing, offshore sites outside local oversight, education campaigns and payment/advertising controls.

2. Social model: launch of a national/full-time digital lottery with transparent allocation of funds for sports, education and healthcare; strict 18 + rules, limits and auditing.

3. Narrow online regulation: pilots 1-2 licenses for limited products (lottery/instant games) for hard KYC/AML, deposit limits and minimalistic advertising.

Key KPIs: share of funds for public programs, coverage of Responsible Gaming tools (self-exclusion, limits), reduced traffic to unlicensed sites and compliance with AML/CFT requirements.

A realistic first step is a social lottery + responsible play frame with a phased effect assessment in each state.