Development forecast until 2030

1) Starting point 2025: decentralization as the norm

Argentina retains the model of 24 jurisdictions (provinces + CABA), where gambling is allowed only if directly authorized by the local regulator; there is no single federal license. Online products and payments in the licensed segment are in Argentine pesos (ARS), the use of cryptocurrencies for gambling is not authorized. This frames the entire trajectory through 2030.

2) Payment Macro Brand: A2A/QR Conversion → Above

Interoperable QR payments and instant account-to-account transfers (Transferencias 3. 0) turned into the basic infrastructure of mobile payments; In January 2025, the Bank of Argentina recorded tens of millions of interoperable QR transactions every month, and their share and growth rates remain high. For licensed operators, this means less deposit/withdrawal friction and better regional coverage.

3) Crypto: Important for households, but not for legal iGaming

From 2022-2023 banks and fintech wallets are prohibited from "conducting/facilitating" client transactions with unauthorized digital assets; in parallel, Law No. 27 was adopted in 2024. 739 and by-law base for VASP/PSAV (registration, AML control). For gambling, this means: until 2030, crypto payments in the licensed segment are unlikely, and "whitewashing" goes through ARS rails.

4) Senate-2025: Course on advertising, RG and unification of "lows"

In the fall of 2025, the Senate resumed consideration of the gambling prevention/online betting bill: advertising/sponsorship restrictions, juvenile protection, biometric verification and other uniform standards are being discussed. This is not a "federalization" of licenses, but an attempt to stitch general rules on top of the provincial model - a factor that will shape the 2026-2030 market.

Scenarios to 2030

A) Baseline (most likely)

The legal card is expanding. Most provinces are implementing a full-fledged online framework modeled on CABA/Prov. Buenos Aires; compatible "minima" for advertising and RG at the national level appear.

Payments: ARS-A2A/QR dominate; increase in the share of "mobile" in the deposit/withdrawal due to Transferencias 3. 0 and PSP/bank integrations.

Compliance: biometric KYC becomes onboarding standard; The AML circuit for VASP reduces the gray channels of offshore financing.

Crypt: remains outside licensed gambling; BCRA/AML regulatory logic supports a fiat circuit.

B) Accelerated (pro-market)

The Senate approves a rigid but clear advertising/RG framework, which removes political barriers for vacillating provinces.

Payment interoperability and biometrics dramatically increase the share of "white" turnover and fiscal fees. (Acceleration is supported by trends A2A/QR 2024-2025.)

C) Conservative (restrictive)

Advertising bans become excessive (total ban of sponsorship/bonuses), which retains a significant amount of traffic from offshore companies and slows down the "whitewash." Fears of such rigidity in 2025 were already heard at the hearings.

Key Growth Drivers 2026-2030

1. Mobile-primary: 4G/5G + light customers/PWA → higher frequency of bets in live, more retention. Reinforced by the growth of A2A/QR.

2. Uniform "minima" for RG/advertising: less regulatory uncertainty → more investment in local legal.

3. Anti-illegal through payments: AML framework for VASP and BCRA bans on crypto channels through banks/PSP reduce onboarding speed in offshore companies.

Risks and how to hedge them

Regulatory "drag" of advertising. The scenario of a total ban on sponsorships reduces transparency and returns part of the audience to the "gray" zone; balance marketing for the benefit of RG inventory and media partnerships with age control.

Requirements fragmentation. Even with national "minimums," the provinces will retain nuances in taxes, limits and verification - modular compliance is needed.

Payment shocks. Changes in Transferencias rules 3. 0/PSP or anti-fraud thresholds - keep backup A2A bridges and processing.

What operators and provinces should do

• Plan a multi-provincial license portfolio and ad layouts for different modes.
• Standardize biometric KYC and responsible tools (limits, self-exclusion, age filters).
• Deepen ARS-A2A/QR payments and cascaded output routes - this is the main UX conversion driver in the legal channel.

• Introduce general "lows" on RG/ads and synchronize them with the Senate - this will accelerate the "whitewash" and fiscal effect.
• Publish the windows of licensed platforms (similar to CABA/BA) and strengthen the communication "play legally."

Final forecast by 2030

By 2030, Argentina's legal online segment is likely to operate in a "provincial licenses + national minimum standards for advertising/RG/identification" configuration. The payment "engine" will remain A2A/QR in ARS, and crypto payments will remain outside the licensed market. Successful operators will be those who combine mobile-UX, biometrics and strict compliance, and provinces with transparent legal windows and interoperable payments will collect a larger share of the fiscal effect with a smaller amount of illegal.