(H1): The size of the gambling industry in Bolivia

1) Briefly about the main thing

Bolivia's gambling market is compact and predominantly offline, with a concentrated offer in three agglomerations: La Paz/El Alto, Santa Cruz de la Sierra and Cochabamba. The regulator Autoridad de Fiscalización y Control Social del Juego (AJ) maintains a high compliance threshold: licensing of sites and circulations, control of equipment/software, reporting and RG/AML. The online channel is developing in a metered manner, so the bulk of the turnover is formed by ground halls, bingo and national lotteries.

2) What makes up the "size" of the market

A. Offline casinos and gaming halls

Slot core (≈80 -200 + devices on a large site), compact live corners (2-6 tables), VIP in demand.

Regular visitor spending: Micro/average rates, evening prime.

Revenue is sensitive to location (business corridors, shopping and entertainment centers) and schedule.

B. Bingo

One of the most favorite formats: 2-5 evening nets per week, special draws for the holidays.

Revenue is seasonal, but more predictable than clean tables.

C. Lotteries

Circulation/instant products with an approved share of the prize pool, a stable contribution to the total turnover.

D. Online (slots, live, bets)

Only allowed with separate AJ resolution; e-KYC/AML/KYT and technical reporting are required.

The share of online is lower than in a number of neighbors, but it is growing following mobile habits.

3) Geographical concentration

Santa Cruz de la Sierra is the most dynamic business and night ecosystem: premium hotels, modern slot rooms at shopping rings.

La Paz/El Alto - a mix of hotel-casino and city halls; strong live tables and bingo events.

Cochabamba - calm slot rooms and bingo, compact live corners.

Outside the "big three" - point sites for local traffic.

4) Why the market is small (and why know it)

High regulatory bar (licenses, inventory of equipment, RNG/RTP certification, reporting).

Moderate payment infrastructure and focus on offline cash.

The urban rather than tourist nature of demand: lots of short evening sessions instead of long "resort" cycles.

Cautious advertising: strict requirements for 18 +/RG and promo draws.

5) How to estimate "size" without speculation: a practical technique

💡 Use it if you are preparing analytics or an investment memo.

Step 1. Offline casinos/lounges

Slot core: number of active devices × average daily win/slot × days of operation.

Live tables: sessions × average payout × prime loading.

Adjustments: seasonality, weekend, VIP area.

Step 2. Bingo

Wed. sales of cards for circulation × number of circulations × months, minus unclaimed/returns.

Step 3. Lotteries

Gross proceeds from the issue of × (1 - share of the prize fund - expenses).

Step 4. Online

Average ARPU × monthly unique activities by product (slots/live/bets), adjusted for bonuses and cancellations.

Step 5. Verification

Cross check with reporting for AJ and accounting GL; permissible discrepancy - not more than 0.5-1% after adjustments.

6) Qualitative assessment of scale (without "bare" numbers)

The market is small in terms of the number of sites and devices per capita, average in terms of revenue sustainability (urban everyday life), growing in terms of online behavior (mobile-first).

Turnover contribution leaders: slots (offline), then bingo/lotteries; online - "plus" to the general base, especially bets and live-casinos in prime.

7) What influences market size dynamics

Drivers

Payment upgrade (cards/transfers, higher approval).

Updating slot parks, adding live content.

CRM and fair bonus policy (RG limits, simple T&C).

Hotel/Mall/Restaurant Group Partnerships.

Limiters

Household income and cost of locations.

Advertising filters and anti-gray online.

Compliance and technical certification costs.

8) Scenarios to 2030 (on size and structure)

Scenario	What changes	Total for "size"
Basic	Point opening of halls, payment upgrade, stable AJ regulation	Moderate turnover growth, online slowly increases share
Optimistic	Express Checkout + Online Reporting and RG Unification	Acceleration of onboarding and retention, more noticeable contribution of mobile bets and live
Conservative	Strict restrictions on payment/advertising, CAPEX savings	Stagnation, competition goes to UX and payout speed

9) KPIs by which the size is "visible" (benchmarks for monitoring)

Indicator	Why is important	Maturity benchmark
Mid-day win/slot	Core of offline revenue	Stability ± 5-10% w/w
Loading tables (prime)	Critical to live angle	60-80% at peak
Sales of bingo cards/circulations	Social demand driver	Growth for weekends/holidays
Online deposit approvability	Throughput	≥ 90%
Withdrawal P95	Trust/Retention	≤ 15 min (V)
Consistency of AJ ↔ GL ↔ PSP	Market transparency	≥ 99.5% match

10) What it means for players, operators and investors

Players - more transparency and predictable payments, but less "super-giants" and show effects.

Operators - strategy "less, but better": strong location, compliance discipline, portfolio of hit slots + bingo, fast cashouts.

Investors - to evaluate the efficiency of the unit (hall/cluster), and not the "mass" network; carefully look at payments and reporting.

11) Analyst checklist before publishing figures

Valid AJ licences and site statuses confirmed.

Verified device/table base and bingo/lottery schedule.

GGR/bonus/jackpot formulas agreed; dubbing is excluded.

AJ ↔ GL ↔ PSP/providers cross-checked.

Assumptions and margins of error (seasonality, cut-off dates) are indicated.

12) FAQ

Why are there no "hard" numbers in the public domain?

Because the relevant data is in the reporting of operators and AJ. Public estimates without reconciliation often distort the picture.

Will online be able to overtake offline?

More likely - not in the horizon 2030, but the share of online will grow thanks to mobile rates and live games with fast cashout.

How much of the "size" is lottery and bingo?

Noticeable and stable, especially on weekends/holidays; the exact share is correctly calculated only according to internal data and regulations of prize funds.

13) The bottom line

"The size of the gambling industry in Bolivia" today is not about megaprojects, but about a sustainable urban leisure economy under the strict supervision of AJ. Core - offline slots and bingo/lottery; online adds share as payments and reporting are digitalized. The key to growth until 2030: multi-PSP and fast payouts, an updated slot portfolio, honest T&C, RG/AML discipline and impeccable consistency of reports.