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2030 Outlook (Brazil as Latin America's Largest Market)
Forecast: Brazil → No. 1 in Latin America by 2030
Starting point (October 2025)
Norm and supervision. The online market is enshrined in Lei 14. 790/2023: you can only work with the preliminary authorization of the Ministry of Finance through Secretaria de Prêmios e Apostas (SPA). This moved the market from a "gray zone" to an adjustable plane.
Payment model. Portaria SPA/MF nº 615/2024 requires settlements exclusively through institutions authorized by the Central Bank: PIX, TED, debit/prepaid cards; crypto, cash, boletos and credit cards in rate logic - banned from licensed operators.
Enforcement. The state massively closes the "gray" sites: in the 1st half of 2025, Anatel blocked ≈15,5 thousand resources, and 17.7 million Brazilians have already played in the legal circuit.
IR (offline resorts). Project PL 2. 234/2022 (casinos only as part of integrated resorts) remains on the Senate agenda; in the summer of 2025, voting was postponed again.
Conclusion: By 2025, Brazil has created a rare combination for the region - a strict onshore frame + a powerful PIX payment rail + active anti-sulfur control - and the region's de facto largest regulated online market.
Five Structural Drivers 2026-2030
1. PIX as Growth Infrastructure
Pix Automático (launched June 16, 2025) turns recurring payments and subscriptions into "one click," expanding the funnel for players without credit cards.
Pix Parcelado (BCB announcement for 2025-2026) - installments on top of instant transfers: increases the average check and competes with credit cards.
Effect: higher conversion/retention without returning to "gray" methods.
2. SPA Regulatory Perimeter
Uniform authorization/monitoring rules, the public portal Apostas de Quota Fixa and the SIGAP technical platform increase predictability for operators and advertising partners.
3. Tough "cleaning pressure" on offshore companies
System locks + sanctions to intermediaries reduce the attractiveness of illegal immigrants and transfer traffic to the "white" circuit.
4. Potential IR resorts
Adoption of PL 2. 234/2022 until 2027-2028 is able to add MICE tourism, employment and cross-marketing "onlayn↔offlayn," while casinos will be strictly inside resorts and with geographical limits.
5. Marketing discipline
Strengthening the rules of advertising and responsible play reduces the regulatory risks of brands and evens out the conditions for "white" operators.
Scenarios to 2030
1) Basic (most likely)
Onshorization continues: the number of authorized domains/brands is growing, offshore is being supplanted.
The PIX ecosystem (Automático, then Parcelado/soon-lending against future receipts) becomes the standard for payments/deposits.
Market> No. 1 in LatAm in terms of revenue and the number of active players due to the size of the economy and payment inclusion.
2) Accelerated
PL 2. 234/2022 adopted by 2027: the first IRs in Sao Paulo/Rio give impetus to MICE tourism, strengthen the country's brand for a premium audience; the omnichannel "online + IR" arises.
The indirect effect of PIX on e-commerce and content subscriptions "pulls" LTV and iGaming through similar user habits.
3) Conservative
Political delays on IR and tighter advertising restrictions slow down CAPEX and the pace of brand onboarding; however, the core of the online market remains stable due to PIX and the existing SPA portaries.
KPIs and Success Metrics (working hypothesis)
Share of legal traffic (assets/revenue) vs. offshore: target wedge> 80/20 by 2030 while maintaining locks and payment barriers.
SLA of payments through the PIX: median ≤5 minutes, 95th percentile of ≤30 minutes - white market benchmark against offshore. (Relies on the instant nature of the PIX and regulatory requirements for payout transparency.)
Subscription mechanics: the share of users who connected Pix Automático → 25-35% by 2030 in large brands.
Participation of brands in sports partnerships subject to advertising restrictions: emphasis on Responsible Gaming/social campaigns instead of "old-style" influencers.
Risks and "attention points"
Political and social risk: discussions about ludomania, transfers on land casinos. Mitigated by strict RG, limits, self-exclusion and transparent advertising.
Enforcement swing: offshore can adapt (mirrors, VPN). Countermeasure - technical support for Anatel locks + payment perimeter only through BCB.
Payment innovation: the success of Pix Parcelado and the rules by 2026 is critical for LTV/ARPU; it is important to monitor BCB rulemaking.
What Market Players Should Do (2026-2030 Roadmap)
Operators
1. Deep PIX integration: auto payments (Automático), preparation for Parcelado, transparent SLAs, zero hidden withdrawal fees.
2. Compliance-by-design: compliance with SPA portaries (payments, certification, advertising), SIGAP connection and traceability audit.
3. RG product: limits, timeouts, self-exclusion, age/CPF verification - as part of the white brand value proposition.
Investors and payment providers
1. Bet on BCB-allowed tools and data stack for anti-fraud.
2. Pilots for recurring/BNPL scenarios on the PIX, including for loyalty programs/subscriptions.
State/Regulatory
1. Continue blocking and suppression of "gray" payment routes; publish quarterly market KPIs (onshore/offshore).
2. By IR - to keep the model of "casino inside an integrated resort" with strict MICE requirements and geographical limits.
Why Brazil will become No. 1 in Latin America by 2030
The scale of the economy + PIX payment inclusion (including almost 60 million without credit cards, for which Automático/Parcelado open subscriptions and quasi-credit).
Transparent onshore frame (Lei 14. 790/2023 + SPA portaries) and SIGAP technology monitoring.
Active law enforcement (tens of thousands of locks) and falling attractiveness of offshore.
(Optional) IR tourism as a multiplier if PL 2. 234/2022 will be accepted in the 2026-2028 window.
By 2030, Brazil will consolidate its leadership in Latin America through three factors: regulation of SPA + PIX payment infrastructure + a firm fight against offshore. When accepting PL 2. 234/2022 the country will additionally turn tourism and MICE into the "second engine" of the industry - with an omnichannel bundle of "onlayn↔IR." Already today, flow metrics are visible in the "white" circuit (17.7 million users, tens of thousands of locks), and the next waves of PIX (Automático, Parcelado) convert the scale of the payment system into long-term growth of ARPU/LTV and the tax base.
References and sources: Lei 14 official text. 790/2023; the Apostas de Quota Fixa (SPA/MF) portal; Portaria 615/2024 on payment transactions; Anatel lock reports BCB updates on Pix Automático and Pix Parcelado; status PL 2. 234/2022 in the Senate.