Casino's role in future tourism (Brazil)

1) Starting conditions: tourism is already breaking records

Inbound flow: in January-September 2025, Brazil received ≈7,10 million foreign tourists - a historical maximum; in January-May alone - 4.8 million (+ 49.7% YoY). Federal briefs and industry notes confirm this.

Cash inflow: in the first half of 2025, foreign visitors left US $4.19 billion (data from the Central Bank, Embratur); for 7 months - US $4.9 billion, and July brought US $696.7 million (+ 13.3% YoY).

Cultural anchors are already generating large loading peaks (for example, Carnival 2025: in Rio alone, the effect was estimated at R $5.5 billion, direct tourist income ~ R $1.48 billion).

Conclusion: tourism in 2025 is on a growth trajectory. The question is whether the casino resort industry can add year-round "off-season" attractiveness and increase the average check.

2) Legal Horizon: Where the Ground Model Got Stuck

Bill PL 2234/2022 (casino, bingo, jogo do bicho, horse racing) was repeatedly put on the Senate's agenda in 2025, but the vote in July was dropped and the issue went into limbo. At the same time, senators and the industry publicly discuss tourist and fiscal benefits.

In September 2025, Senator Irage again promoted the legalization of land-based casinos, announcing up to R $20 billion in potential annual taxes. This is a political assessment, but it shows the scale of expectations.

In parallel, a "digital" circuit is already operating: online betting and online games are regulated by Lei 14. 790/2023, however, online legalization does not replace the offline resort model (IR).

3) Why it's integrated resorts (IR) that boost tourism

World practice (Singapore) shows that the IR cluster (casino + MICE center + 5 hotels + restaurants/shows/retail/parks) attracts an audience far beyond the "players." In Singapore, a significant share of IR's revenue historically came from non-gaming destinations (hotels, MICE, retail, attractions).

How this translates to Brazil:

Out of season: IR can smooth out the "saws" between Carnival, beach peak and Christmas - due to congresses and events (MICE), show residences and gastronomy.
Average check and duration of the visit: the complex "overnight + gastronomy + show + shopping" raises RevPAR and guest expenses, especially in large nodes (Rio, Sao Paulo).
Air carrier routing: Regular flow on MICE and entertainment makes the economy of new international flights more sustainable.
Regional diversification: Thematic IRs in Nordesti (Fortaleza/Recife/Salvador) and "eco-IRs" in the Amazon are capable of lengthening the "Rio Foz do Iguazu-Amazonia" route.

4) Where it is logical to place the "first waves" of IR

1. Rio de Janeiro is a global brand + ready event culture (Sambódromo, Lapa, beaches, Carnival), strong synergy with cruises.

2. São Paulo is Latin America's largest business traffic, underutilized MICE calendar potential year-round.

3. Fortaleza/Salvador/Recife - "solar" conveyor with a good flight to Europe; IR will support year-round loading.

4. Amazonia (Managari/Manusk) is a niche eco-IR with altitude/futprint limits and a mandatory conservation agenda.

(Industry experts point out that in a real compromise, some of the first projects can start with bingozals/small formats, and not immediately with giant IRs - it all depends on the final text of the law.)

5) How much it can cost and give tourism (framework, not "promises")

Investments: international practice IR is hundreds of millions - billions of US $ per facility; under Brazil, a portfolio of 3-5 pilot projects in "anchor" cities + dozens of small halls is likely.

Tourist income: given the already achieved figures of US $4.2-4.9 billion for 6-7 months of 2025, IR activation can accelerate growth and bring double-digit billions a year in international spending by the end of the decade (together with natural drivers - beaches, Carnival, Amazonia).

Fiscal footprint: policy estimates vary; publicly voiced the bar to R $20 billion in taxes/fees per year with ground legalization - this is the upper edge, depending on the taxation model and the rate of IR input.

6) Risks and conditions of success

Regulatory certainty. Without the adoption of PL 2234/2022 (or equivalent), IRs remain "on pause." The July vote withdrawal showed the sensitivity of the topic.

Inflorescence. Strict RG/AML standards, restriction of credit instruments, a "white" payment loop are required (the experience of online regulation can be translated offline).

Ecology and city plan. Especially for the Amazon: mandatory impact assessments, "low" development profile, local jobs, share of revenue for nature conservation.

Competition for tourist. Neighboring destinations and "IR hubs" (Singapore, etc.) show what the combination decides: design icon, gastronomy, shows, convenient flights and visa policy (easing visa barriers supports the flow).

7) Three scenarios for tourism until 2030 (viewed through the prism of a casino)

A. Basic - "Let's go from bingozals, IR in 2-3 cities by 2030"

A compromise law was passed; by 2027-2028, the first light-IR facilities are being launched in Rio and the joint venture.

Effect: MICE and off-season demand growth, + 0.8-1.2 million additional foreign visits/year by 2030, RevPAR increase in nodes.

Risks: protracted approvals and infrastructure bottlenecks.

B. Optimistic - "Flagship IR + Fast Concessions"

Senate approves full IR model in 2025-2026; by 2029-2030, 3-5 large complexes are operating.

Effect: stable new air routes, an increase of 1.5-2.0 million visits/year, tourist revenues quickly turn into double-digit billions of US $.

Requirements: "hard" RG/AML, quotas for local purchases and employment, world-class architecture.

C. Conservative - "No IR"

The decision is delayed; tourism growth is due to current drivers (nature, events, cuisine).

Effect: Brazil maintains 2025 base records, but does not receive a year-round IR multiplier.

(Scenario assumptions rely on current entry/foreign exchange earnings records and international IR effects without "carrying" illegitimate expectations.)

8) What to do regions now

Prepare sites and PPs for IR/MICE (water, transport, seismic, ESG requirements).

Interdepartmental "road maps": security, transport, visas/e-visas, marketing.

Calendar of events 24-36 months in advance (congresses, gastro/music festivals) so that IR immediately "sits" on the finished MICE stream.

Partnerships with airlines and cruise lines - targeted routes for future IR.

Brazil is already experiencing a tourist boom: record entries and foreign exchange earnings are recorded monthly. Integrated resorts are able to turn point peaks (Carnival, beach season) into a year-round economy of impressions, adding MICE, gastronomy, shows and retail - this is how it worked for global "IR hubs." But the key is a legislative denouement: while PL 2234/2022 stalls, the role of casinos in future tourism remains a potential. If the window opens, Rio and Sao Paulo will win first, followed by Nordesti and Amazonia; effect - an increase in visits, air network and average check, subject to strict RG/AML and environmental architecture of projects.

Relevance: October 11, 2025 (Europe/Kyiv).