Prospects for Legalizing Casinos and Online Gambling - Brazil

Prospects for legalizing casinos and online gambling

1) Short thesis

Brazil has already launched a regulatory framework for sports betting with fixed odds and is gradually "bringing" it by-laws. The next logical question on the agenda is casino (offline/online) and other iGaming verticals. On the horizon until 2030, three trajectories are likely: from the conservative "only sports + lotteries" to the limited legalization of integrated resorts (IR) and the accurate admission of online casinos to strict compliance.

2) Starting point: where the market is already "digitized"

Lotteries (federal and state): Mature offline/online sales system and transparent distribution of receipts.

Sports betting: there are requirements for authorization, KYC/AML, advertising, RG (limits/self-exclusion), sport integration.

These blocks form a technical and supervisory "template" for possible legalization of casino/online games: from licensing and payments to reporting and ombudsman.

3) Why the casino and online gaming question will come back

1. Tourism and employment: Integrated resorts (IR) create MICE infrastructure, hotel accommodation, and tour and cultural clusters.

2. Fiscal base: transparent taxes and licences are inferior in risk to the "gray zone."

3. Technological synergy: e-KYC, anti-fraud and RG mechanics already tuned make it easier to scale to other verticals.

4. Regional competition: neighboring LatAm markets are developing at least sports betting and partially iGaming.

4) Three scenarios until 2030

A) Conservative (status-quo +)

Offline/online casinos do not launch, focus on betting and lotteries.

Strengthening RG/advertising, stripping the "gray zone," developing integrity in sports.

Plus: low social risks. Less: lost investment in IR and MICE.

B) Niche IR approach ("showcase")

Allowing a limited number of casino resorts with high investment thresholds and tight employment/ESG KPIs.

Online casinos - either under a moratorium or in a sandbox with restrictions and audits.

Plus: controllability and PR effect; minus: complex preparation of territories and long construction cycles.

C) Hybrid adjustable iGaming

IR + point tolerance of online games (slots/live) for authorized operators with strict RG/AML, certification of RNG/live studios and ADR.

Uniform advertising standards, prohibition of credit rates, centralized self-exclusion.

Plus: maximum fiscal and technological returns; minus: regulatory and social risks are higher, strong supervisory capacity is needed.

5) How to match this with the current sports betting framework

Licensing/authorization: expanding the list of verticals in a familiar procedure.

Compliance: unified AML/KYC, 2FA requirements platform, event logs, log storage, reports.

RG tools by default: deposit/time limits, "time out," self-exclusion with one click, help centers.

Advertising: uniform code (18 + | 21 +, warnings, prohibition of aggressive gamification and targeting the vulnerable).

Ombudsman (ADR): mandatory dispute mediation, response SLAs, public statistics.

6) Payments and fintech

Cards, PIX, e-wallets - basic set; transparent returns and chargebacks.

Stablecoins/crypto - according to white lists of networks and providers, with online screening and SoF for large amounts.

Uniform SLAs for cashouts, understandable commissions, test micropayments as best practices.

7) IR model: what is important to sew into the law/by-law

Investment threshold and number of rooms, MICE zones, cultural scenes, urban integration.

Local employment and training (quotas, dual programs with colleges).

ESG standards: energy efficiency, noise caps, "quiet corridors," complaint report.

City logistics: traffic, public transport, security, map of walking routes.

Social guarantees: RG/prevention fund, financing of help lines.

8) Taxes and distribution of revenues

Combination of license + percentage of GGR/turnover with upper limits (cap) for the sake of predictability.

Apportionment among federation, states, municipalities and trust funds (sports/culture/health).

Motivation for the white market: reducing incentives for illegal immigrants through affordable but strict entry rules.

9) Risks and how to remove them

Risk	How it manifests itself	Mitigators
Social (addiction)	increase in complaints/debts	limits by default, self-exclusion, aid funding, RG audit
Reputation	"offshore stigma," PR scandals	transparent tenders/audits, public reports, MOUs with reputable regulators
Institutional	regional inequalities	IR competition with KPIs for local multipliers
Tech/fraud	leaks, bots, lumps	ISO 27001, pentests, antifraud, 2FA, bug bounty
Sporting integrity	manipulations	integration platforms, banning insider betting, training clubs

10) Roadmap 2025-2030 (landmark)

2025

Update "White Paper" by iGaming verticals: IR models, online content, RG/AML, advertising.

Create a sandbox for limited pilots (content, live studios) under audit.

2026–2027

Adopt a basic law/package of amendments: definitions, licenses, taxes, advertising, ADR, technical standards.

Launch tenders for IR locations (pre-qualification, employment KPI and ESG).

2028

The first wave of IR construction; expansion of the "sandbox" of online games (when performing KPI RG/compliance).

2029–2030

Public audit of results: employment, taxes, complaints, RG metrics.

Decision to scale/adjust online list and IR quantity.

11) KPIs to judge success by

RG: proportion of accounts with active limits ≥70%, median response to self-exclusion ≤30 minutes.

Fintech: ≥95% of cashouts in SLA; Average return time ≤3 working days.

Social effect: noise/queue complaint index - downtrend; report on calls to the help line.

Economics: actual investments vs. declared; local employment; RevPAR/MICE visits for IR regions.

Enforcement: the number of blocking illegal immigrants; IS incident response time.

12) Role checklists

To the state

Uniform RG/Advertising Code (offline/online); a centralized self-exclusion base.

Licensing/audit procedures, MOUs with foreign regulators.

Public statistics: taxes, complaints, ADR response times.

To operators/investors

AML/KYC/SoF, 2FA policies, logs; ISO 27001 and annual pentests.

Certification of RNG/live studios; honest ToS/Privacy; open-API reporting.

RG by design: default limits/timeout/self-exclusion; personnel training.

Clubs/leagues

Integration protocols, prohibition of insider betting, training programs for players and coaches.

Checking the status of partners (authorization, advertising compliance/RG).

13) The bottom line

The prospects for legalizing casinos and online gambling in Brazil are realistic if we rely on the existing infrastructure for regulating sports betting and lotteries. The optimal trajectory is phased, with a "showcase" of integrated resorts and a neat, strictly controlled online segment. Success until 2030 will be determined by three things:

1. strict but understandable compliance (KYC/AML, ISO, ADR, integration), 2. Responsible Gaming by default and social guarantees, 3. transparent project economics (taxes, employment, open reports).

This approach reduces the risks of "wild digitalization," keeps the consumer in the "white" circuit and turns the potential of the industry into a sustainable added value for territories and the budget.