(short): Forecast to 2030 (Chile)

2030 Development Forecast (Chile)

1) Starting point for October 12, 2025

Regulation on the way: The Chilean Senate approved a bill to regulate online betting and games in general (votes 27-3-5) and sent it to the relevant commissions for revision. This opens a window for local licensing in 2026 +.

Enforcement has tightened: on September 30, 2025, the Supreme Court ordered Internet providers to block unlicensed sites: the vector is to "squeeze out" the gray segment before the start of the permit regime.

Tourism as a demand driver: in 2024, Chile received 5.24 million foreign tourists (the best indicator for the year), and in the first half of 2025, an increase in entry was recorded> 30% YoY - the base for casino + leisure packages.

The offline market is stable: 3.316 million casino visits in the first half of 2025; the industry remains a significant source of taxes and employment.

Mobile habit of users: 30.7 million mobile connections (155% of the population) at the beginning of 2025 - "mobile-first" as the iGaming consumption standard.

2) Growth Drivers 2026-2030

1. Launching licensing of the online market - admission of local and international operators subject to KYC/AML, RNG technical certification and responsible play rules.

2. System locks and payment filters are a gradual "overflow" of the audience from illegal immigrants to the "white" circuit.

3. Mobile monetization - live betting, live casino and "super checkout" (wallets/cards/instant transfers) in applications.

4. Tourism and MICE - integration of offline casinos with festivals and natural routes: increasing the average check and smoothing seasonality.

5. Digitalization of Supervision (SCJ) - regular visit/tax reports and digital control tools reduce regulatory gaps.

3) Three scenarios until 2030

A) Baseline (most likely)

Terms: finalization of the law - 2026; first licenses - 2026/27; full "entering the mode" - by 2028.

Market: a steady increase in legal online GGR at double-digit rates in the first 3 years (white channel effect), then a slowdown to high single digits.

Income structure: 60-65% - sports betting (strong football calendar), 35-40% - casino content (live tables, slots).

Key risks: the growth ceiling due to advertising restrictions and responsible practices is offset by the depth of the mobile channel.

Support: the fact of approval of the law in general and the strengthening of blocking illegal immigrants.

B) Accelerated (pro-invest)

Terms: quick release of by-laws and "batch" certification - licenses already in 2026; by 2030 - broad competition> 10-12 brands.

Market: + live casino and express betting share; tourism is more actively sewn into offline clusters, MICE packages are growing.

Effect: higher competition for LTV → the best UX/checkouts and responsible play programs.

C) Discreet (regulatory-rigid)

Deadlines: protracted revision, strict advertising/sponsorship caps; delays in payment integrators.

Market: part of the traffic remains in the "gray zone" (bypass channels), the growth of the legal segment is moderate.

Anticrisis: emphasis on offline travel products and "hybrid" services (loyalty programs for offline casinos with legal online partners).

4) What will happen to offline casinos and tourism

The role of casinos as a "night anchor" in resort and urban clusters will continue, and the synergy of "casino + show + gastronomy + wine routes" will strengthen monetization. The 2024 record for tourism confirms the base for combined products.

Taxes and local budgets: stable sector payments and 2025 visits set the stage for predictable revenues for municipalities and regions by 2030.

5) KPIs and benchmarks for 2026-2030

Share of "white" online traffic: target - ≥80% by 2030 (by the number of active accounts/depositors).

KYC rate: median <3 min; share of auto-verification ≥85%.

Mobile check-out: conversion of deposit ≥75% on repeated payment; T + 0/T + 1 for 70% of leads.

Responsible play: ≥95% of new customers received limits/timeouts; NPS of RG ≥50 programs.

Seasonality of offline clusters: a decrease in the "pit" of the off-season by 15-20% through events and packaging.

6) Roadmap for operators and ecosystem

2025–2026

Legal perimeter: readiness for a "white" start - a local company, RNG audit, AML/KYC policy, integration with payment providers. Reliance on public decisions of the Senate and Supreme Court.

Mobile product: native applications + PWA, low-latency video for live, "super checkout" (cards/wallets/instant transfers). The foundation is ultra-high mobile penetration.

Tour partners: pilots "Monticello/Viña-Valparaíso/southern regions" - shows, gastronomy, wine tours, pre/post-cruise packages. Benchmark - record stream 2024.

2027–2028

ASO/marketing "in white": adaptation to advertising restrictions; sponsorship with RG-clauses.

Data & RG: behavioral risk models, proactive limits, self-exclusion API.

Offline online integration: general wallet/status/bonuses, QR identification in the halls.

2029–2030

Optimization of taxation and reporting: mature processes with SCJ and municipalities; regular publication of sector metrics.

Export expertise: Chilean teams as a hub for LATAM (UX, live products, payment integrations).

7) What it means for the state

Fiscal receipts and consumer protection rise as the market "whitewashes"; judicial locks maintain discipline until licenses are fully triggered.

Controlling advertising and sport: Balancing club earnings and limits on the impact on vulnerable groups is key to sustainability.

8) Withdrawal

Chile is approaching 2030 with a rare combination for the region: political will to license, a hard line against illegal immigrants, a mobile market with 155% of connections and a strong tourism showcase. Under the baseline scenario, by 2028-2030, the country will form a transparent "white" online segment, where competition will shift from the "race for traffic" to the quality of mobile UX, responsible practices and integration with tourism. This will be the source of sustainable growth in the sector.

Sources used (key):

Chilean Senate: General approval of the bill regulating online betting and gaming (August 2025).
Supreme Court: ordering providers to block unlicensed sites (30. 09. 2025).
Tourism: 5.24 million foreign arrivals in 2024; dynamics of the first half of 2025.
SCJ: 3.316 million casino visits for the first half of 2025; tax and operational summaries.
DataReport 2025: 30.7 million mobile connections (155%)

Do you need to arrange this for your template (KPI table, timeline 2026-2030, compliance checklist and risk matrix)? I will say - I will add.