Crypto Casino
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2030 Development Forecast (Colombia)
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1) Starting point for 2025: what is already fixed
Market and whitelist. In 2024, Coljuegos confirmed 15 active online operators; for 2023, they transferred ≈ COP 317,977 million to health care for "exploitation rights."
Fiscal shock 2025. Decree 175 of 14. 02. 2025 introduced 19% VAT on deposits in online games (including deposits in crypto assets) as a temporary measure for 2025. This affects unit economics and player behavior.
Enforcement. In September 2025, Coljuegos requested the blocking of Polymarket (crypto betting on electoral events - the format is illegal in Colombia). The Fecoljuegos trade union publicly supported the ban.
Mobile as "default." By the first quarter 2025, the Ministry of Digital Industry recorded 49.1 million mobile Internet access (coverage ~ 92% of the population) and an increase in 5G penetration, which pushes mobile-first UX rates.
Concession economics. For online games: 15% of GGR + annual fix (811 SMLMV) + 1% Coljuegos admin.
2) Growth Drivers 2025-2030
1. Broadband Mobile Environment (4G→5G). More access and higher stability - higher session frequency, share of live markets, eSports/fantasy.
2. Tough enforcement. Regulatory and technical cleaning of "gray" sites increases the sewerage of traffic to the "white" segment (for example, the Polymarket case).
3. Verifiability of operators' status. The constantly available "white list" reduces fraud and strengthens the confidence of players/payment partners.
3) Deterrents
Fiscal uncertainty. VAT on deposits is temporary, but its extension/modification can put pressure on margins and LTV.
Offshore crypto segment. Attempts by players to go to unlicensed "crypto casinos/bookmakers" (without WG/KUS) remain - it requires continued blocking and education.
4) Scenarios to 2030
A) Basic ("status quo +")
Background. VAT-mode 2025 is not extended in its original form; Coljuegos supports the course of blocking illegal immigrants; mobile infrastructure is growing predictably.
Expected.
Moderate gross revenue growth and stable transfers to healthcare through exploitation rights.
Further strengthening mobile-live and expanding the product line (eSports/fantasy) within the current online modality.
Competition in UX/payments (PSE/Nequi/Daviplata), more transparency of fees for the player.
B) Positive ("sewer acceleration")
Background. VAT solution is finally removed/softened or transformed into a model that does not hit deposits; Coordination with providers for locks is ongoing 5G is growing faster than expected.
Expected.
Accelerating audience migration to the "white" segment, ARPU growth and betting frequency.
Expansion of the "white list" due to new concessions and partnerships with foreign brands.
Increase in the share of legal transfers to healthcare and investment activity of operators (data-risk, personalization, integrity-tools).
C) Conservative ("tax pressure")
Background. Extension/hard change of VAT mechanics after 2025; gray segment growth in response to fiscal burden.
Expected.
Containment of revenue growth rates "in the white field," activation of offshore companies (with a response wave of locks).
Players are more differentiated: retention shifts to the VIP segment and live/multi-league fans.
5) KPIs and markers to watch annually
1. Number of operators in the "white list" and duration of concessions (I/O dynamics).
2. Volume of transfers to healthcare (indirect indicator GGR "in the white field").
3. Share of mobile access/5G, latency metrics (affect live markets).
4. Frequency of enforcement actions (blocking, seizures, cases like Polymarket).
5. Fiscal changes around VAT/deposits and "exploitation rights."
6) What operators should do now (short road map)
Model two fiscal regimes (with/without VAT on deposits after 2025), lay down transparent calculation and communication of tax in the deposit flow.
Strengthen the compliance office and interaction with Coljuegos: readiness for audits, proactive reports, monitoring of blocking cases.
Invest in mobile-live UX and payments, given that the market remains extremely "mobile" in infrastructure and demand.
Communicate "white status" (link to the card in the registry) in onboarding and marketing - this increases trust and conversion.
By 2030, Colombia is highly likely to retain its status as Latin America's benchmark, mobile-oriented, and enforceably strong online gambling market. The immediate growth trajectory depends on what form the fiscal regime will take after 2025: with a neutral/soft configuration, the sewerage of traffic and investment in the product will accelerate, with a tough one, the market will continue to grow, but under pressure, compensating for this by increased stripping of the "gray" segment. In all scenarios, the key to sustainability is transparency, mobile-first and strict compliance for Coljuegos.