Crypto Casino
Torrent Gear
Forecast to 2030 - Ecuador
Resume Summary
Ecuador in 2024-2025 "whitewashed" online bets: a single tax of 15% on GGR and deductions from winnings was introduced, a LOPD license was created (the only title for online forecasts), advertising of bets in the media is allowed, and the state platform Bet593 acts as an "anchor." At the same time, the issue of the targeted return of casinos in 5-hotels is being discussed. On this basis, we form a three-scenario forecast until 2030.
1) Starting point: what is already fixed
Offline ban since 2011. Following a nationwide consultation and Decree 873, casinos, casas de apuesta and gaming halls are closed (with transitional windows for "luxury" hotels). This is the operating base that only a new decision of the sovereign can change.
Online tax regime. For operators of online forecasts, 15% of GGR is valid, as well as deductions for player winnings; resident/non-resident (SRI) procedures are provided.
LOPD license (5 years). Decree No. 487 stipulated that for activities on "pronósticos deportivos" a single title from the Ministry of Sports is needed; annual payment - 655 SBU (≈ $307.9 thousand in 2025).
Advertising is allowed. In October 2024, the government allowed betting advertising in the media, synchronizing sports sponsorships and media.
State platform. Bet593 is the official "white" player from the National Lottery (including the mobile application).
2) Political Factor 2025: Casinos in 5-hotels
In 2025, the Constitutional Court first rejected the initial wording of the casino question as insufficiently clear, and then allowed it to be included in the consultation/referendum package (after moderating the wording). Thus, the possibility of narrow legalization of offline has become a political agenda of the end of 2025.
3) Growth Drivers 2026-2030
1. Regulatory predictability online: LOPD + 15% GGR + permitted advertising = below CAC, above LTV and legal activation marketing.
2. Local demand anchors: football (LigaPro, CONMEBOL), as well as NBA/international tournaments - a stable matrix for sportsbook.
3. Fiscal motivation of the state: expansion of the "white" base without political costs; with proper detail, it is possible to connect iCasino verticals (RNG/live) in fiat mode.
4. Tourism angle (conditional): with the approval of the "only 5-hotels" model, offline casinos can become part of the MICE/VIP offer and employment multiplier.
4) Three scenarios until 2030
Scenario A - "Basic (Probable) ": Mature Online Sportsbook, iCasino Pilots in Fiat
What happens: LOPD is preserved, tax administration is stable, advertising is according to the RG code; by 2027-2028, regulations for iCasino appear (license classes for RNG/live, certification, reporting), but calculations are fiat.
Offline: the casino issue in 5 can pass, but on a pilot basis and with restrictions (quotas/cities, employment KPI, RG/AML).
Effect: growth of "white" operators and partnerships with clubs/media, strengthening of payment infrastructure, moderate growth of GGR.
Risks: public sensitivity after 2011, the need for strict oversight.
Scenario B - "Accelerated": iCasino + tourism-casino (5) + marketing-code
What happens: by 2026-2027, a full package for iCasino is quickly accepted (vertical licenses, provider registry, real-time reporting), in parallel - the referendum approves 5-casinos, and 2-4 pilots are launched in resort/congress zones.
Effect: significant increase in fiscal revenues, omnichannel funnel (offline hotel ⇄ online office), employment growth in HoReCa and events.
Risks: regulatory burden (AML/KYC), marketing control (RG watermarks, age filters), avoidance of online cannibalization.
Scenario C - "Cautious/Conservative": sportsbook online only
What happens: iCasino remains "outside the box," offline casinos are not approved/frozen; the market is growing organically due to sports and media, without jumps.
Effect: stable but limited rates; higher share of offshore players in slots/live-casinos.
Risks: "leakage" of demand into the gray zone and a decrease in the effect of fiscalization.
5) Regulator roadmap (to trigger A/B scenario)
1. Detailing the LOPD ecosystem: reporting API, payment SLA, personal RG limits, public register of operators and complaints.
2. Draft iCasino regulations: license classes (RNG/live), certification, log storage duration, anti-manipulation and audit.
3. Advertising code: RG watermarks, ban on targeting the vulnerable, hour/genre restrictions.
4. Offline pilots (if approved): quotas by city/5, KPI for tourism/employment, mandatory Responsible Gaming fund.
5. Fiscal transparency: SRI/Ministry of Sports synchronization, clear rules for non-residents and local apoderados.
6) Market KPIs by 2030 (what to measure)
Fiscal revenues by GGR (dynamics by verticals).
Share of "white" operators in turnover (according to SRI/license register).
Payouts and SLAs (average cashout time, dispute share).
Marketing-purity (shares of compliant creatives, sanctions for violations).
Responsible Gaming: the number of self-exclusions, coverage of prevention programs, contacting the hotline.
Tourism effect (if 5-casino): RevPAR/ADR in pilot zones, HoReCa employment, multipliers of expenses.
7) What market players should do today
Operators: lay full-compliance under LOPD (15% GGR tax, reporting, RG), build local payments and a roadmap for iCasino.
Media/clubs: use "legal" advertising according to the rules, build long-term partnerships and content lines for local leagues.
Investors/hotels: monitor the trajectory of the 5-casino issue in the Constitutional Court/CEC and prepare "pilot" RG/AML/IT models in case of a positive outcome.
Conclusion
By 2030, the most realistic picture is of a mature, "white" online sportsbook market with a high share of locally licensed operators and a clear advertising code. iCasino-verticals are likely to appear in fiat mode through a separate regulation (2027 ±), and offline casinos - in a limited format of 5-hotels and only with a positive outcome of the political process. The success of the scenario depends on the strict implementation of the LOPD ecosystem, transparent fiscalization and sustainable Responsible Gaming. Under these conditions, Ecuador is turning not just into a "new LATAM market," but into a built-in digital jurisdiction for betting - with neatly connected offline tourism projects.