Discussions on possible casino return (Ecuador)

Discussions about a possible casino return

Base point: 2011 ban

Casinos and game halls in Ecuador have been closed since 2011. The ban was formalized by Decree No. 873, published in the Registrar Oficial (Suplemento 536) on September 16, 2011, followed by "fe de eratas" on October 3, 2011. This is the current framework against which a possible return is being discussed.

Return of the topic to the agenda (2025)

In the summer of 2025, President Daniel Noboa announced his intention to bring the issue of targeted casino permission to Consulta Popular (nationwide consultation/referendum). It was proposed to allow casinos only in 5 hotels and establish 25% deductions in favor of social programs (the fight against child malnutrition, school meals, etc.).

What the Constitutional Court said

September 5-8, 2025. Reject "composite" version. The court rejected the original wording of the casino question, indicating that it violates the requirements for the unity of the subject (mixed in one question: the permission of the casino, the specific tax rate and the purpose of the proceeds).

Late September - early October 2025. "Narrow" window. After processing the package, the Court allowed a narrow version of the question to the referendum - in fact, about the very principle of allowing casinos in 5 hotels without reference to a fixed rate and "coloring" taxes. Reports of specialized publications confirm the approval of one wording and the rejection of others.

Why the authorities returned to the topic at all

1. Tourism and MICE. Casinos are seen as an anchor for 5-hotel infrastructure, evening economics and business events. The proposal to tie the return of the casino to the luxury segment is reflected in the explanations for the referendum.

2. Fiscal interest. In the project messages, 25% of deductions appeared (in the "composite" version), but it was this bundle that became a legal problem for the court.

3. Experience of "whitewashing" sports betting. Starting July 1, 2024, there is a 15% GGR tax on sports bets; by the end of August 2024, ~ 65 companies were registered. This created an administration infrastructure for the state, but does not lift the offline ban on casinos.

Role of parliament after referendum

Even if a narrow issue is approved in a referendum, market details (5-hotel criteria, licensing requirements, technical standards, KYC/AML, RG policies, rates and tax distribution, inspections, sanctions) are formalized by the law for which the National Assembly is responsible. In other words, voting will open the door, but will not arrange furniture.

Arguments of the parties

"For"

Jobs and tourism: return of part of the evening revenue of 5-hotels, MICE-segment and related services (F&B, transport, events).

Controlled model: limited to 5-sites and tight regulation instead of underground and offshore.

"Against"

Social risks: ludomania, family debts, criminal related phenomena - those arguments that led to the ban in 2011.

Procedure and "unity of the subject": concerns that economic parameters cannot be "sewn" into the text of the referendum - they should be discussed separately in the law (the position supported by the Court when rejecting the "composite" version).

Possible scenarios (for autumn 2025)

1. Referendum "for" (5-casino) → the law.

The Assembly develops an implementation law: licensing, taxation, technical regulation, zones, control and sanctions. Probably, the debate about the tax rate will return (previously it was publicly "25%," but now this is a matter of the legislator, not the text of the plebiscite).

2. Referendum "against."

The status quo remains: banning casinos under Decree No. 873; the state continues to develop the "white" segment of sports betting and strengthen the fight against underground/offshore.

Which is definitely not changed by this referendum

The discussion concerns offline casinos. It does not legalize online casinos: online requires a separate regulatory architecture (in Ecuador it is not; sports betting - a separate, already regulated track).

By the fall of 2025, the discussion about the return of the casino had reached a legal fork: the broad "composite" wording of the issue was rejected by the Court, but a narrow version (to allow casinos in 5-hotels) was allowed for a referendum. If voters say yes, the key work will shift to parliament: taxes, supervision and the rules of the responsible game will have to be formalized in the implementation law. If "no," the 2011 model will remain, and the market focus will continue to shift to lotteries and "whitewashed" sports betting.