Possibility of future legalization (Ecuador)

Possibility of future legalization

Starting position: current ban

Offline casinos and gambling halls in Ecuador have been banned since 2011 by Decree No. 873 (Registro Oficial, Suplemento 536, 16. 09. 2011; rev. 03. 10. 2011). This is a basic norm that remains in force until any new decisions.

Why the topic returned in 2025

The President proposed to submit to the Consulta Popular (referendum) the issue of point resolution of casinos only in 5 hotels. The first "compound" wording (5 + fixed 25% tax + purpose) was rejected by the Constitutional Court in September 2025 as violating the unity of the subject. Later, the Court allowed a narrow version to vote - the question is only about the 5-casino principle, without "flashing" taxes into the text of the referendum.

What has already turned out to be "whitewashed": the experience of sports betting

Regardless of the fate of the casino, Ecuador introduced a 15% gross income tax (GGR) for sports betting in 2024. By August 2024, 65 companies were registered with CRI, and in 2024-2025. license LOPD (5 years; annual payment - 655 SBU, ≈ $307,850 for 2025; regulatory involvement of the Ministry of Sports). This experience is important as a fiscal and administrative prototype.

Possible scenarios after the referendum

1) "For" 5-casino → parliamentary law

Timing and process. After the publication of the results, the Executive Branch has a limited time frame to send the bill, and the Assembly - to deploy the norm into a full-fledged market architecture (licenses, technical standards, supervision, sanctions). The direct "inclusion" of the tax rate in the text of the question is placed by the Court outside the framework of the correct wording - which means that the rate (and the distribution of income) should be discussed in the law.

Narrow tolerance model. The expected corridor is only 5-hotels, strict compliance, responsible gambling, financial monitoring, inspections.

2) "Against" → the status quo

The 2011 ban is in effect; the state will continue to develop a "white" sports betting circuit and fight the underground/offshore online.

Key nodes of the future law (if the referendum is in favor)

1. Licensing and owners. Capital threshold, disclosure of beneficiaries, no conflicts of interest, verification of sources of funds.

2. Taxes and fees. The rate and mechanism of administration is in the law, not in the referendum issue, in order to observe the "unity of the subject."

3. Technical control. RNG standards/payment tables, video surveillance, reporting, anti-laundering, audit.

4. Responsible play. Self-exclusion, deposit/time limits, advertising restrictions, help lines.

5. Zoning and urban environment. Binding to 5-infrastructure, security requirements, hours of operation.

6. Oversight and sanctions. Inspections, fines, suspension/cancellation of license for violations.

Risks and limitations that are important to keep in mind

Online casinos - separately. And after the referendum, we are talking about land-based casinos; online requires a separate "box" of law and regulator.

Political volatility. The tax/deduction formula would be the subject of bargaining in the Assembly; "composite" solutions at the issue level have already been refused.

Integration with tourism and MICE. The effect is possible only with real synergy with 5-hotels, a safe night economy and direction marketing.

What gives a sports betting case for offline design

The experience of 15% of GGR and the payer register showed: a simple fiscal formula + an understandable point of responsibility (licensing authority) increase collection and transparency. This is not "copied" 100% to the casino, but sets the principles: "pay - report - comply."

Timeline (with focus on 2025)

September 2025. The Constitutional Court rejects the "compound" wording of the casino question.

End of September - October 5, 2025. The court approves the narrow issue of casinos in 5-hotels for the referendum (rejecting other initiatives).

Next. In case of "for" - preparation and adoption of an implementation law; in the case of "against" - the preservation of the 2011 ban.

For the fall of 2025, the possibility of future legalization is not a lifting of the ban, but a legal window: the Constitutional Court allowed asking society only about the 5-casino principle. If voters support the idea, the key work will move to parliament, where the rules of the game will have to be determined - from taxes and technical supervision to responsible play and inspections. If not, Ecuador will remain in the 2011 model, relying on "whitewashed" sports betting and the fight against illegal offline and gray online.

Reference by sources: current ban - official regulations of 2011; tax/register on sports bets and license parameters LOPD - according to iGB, Yogonet, El Comercio and analytical reports (2024-2025); decisions of the Constitutional Court on the issue of casinos - according to G3/MundoVideo reports and documents of the Court.