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(H1): The growth potential of online gambling (Paraguay)
Summary in two lines
Paraguay recorded the historic CONAJZAR fees in 2024 (including a monthly record in October and + 10% in January-October), and in 2025 it rebuilt the regulation: CONAJZAR became a body under the auspices of DNIT, Ley 7438/2025 was adopted and a decree to it was published. The authorities announced a course for the tender in 2026 and the rejection of the exclusive in rates - this opens a growth window for the entire online segment.
Where We Are Now (late 2025)
Status of bets: until the launch of the new model, the Daruma S.A.M. concession (Apostala), obtained in 2022 on an exclusive basis for a period of 5 years, is valid.
Regulatory Architecture: Ley 7438/2025 and Decree 2025 included CONAJZAR in the DNIT structure as a "deconcentrated" body, which strengthened control and oversight resources.
Fiscal demand markers: in October 2024, fees reached G. 15.521 billion (monthly record), and for January-October 2024 - G. 143.376 billion (+ 10% YoY). By the end of the year,> USD 20 million in total revenues appeared in the news.
Tourism as a background of demand:> 2.2 million visits in 2024 (+ 22% by 2023), which increases the consumption of entertainment and online.
Growth Drivers 2026-2030
1) Multi-licensing and competition
The state publicly stated: the rates will be licensed through a tender in 2026 (several operators instead of an exclusive). Competition in coefficients, product and marketing will accelerate the migration of users to "white" online and expand the payer base.
2) Stronger administration (CONAJZAR x DNIT)
The institutional integration of CONAJZAR into DNIT simplifies the collection of payments, auditing and combating the "gray" segment; decree to Ley 7438/2025 detailed the powers and transition of assets/processes to the new structure. This reduces regulatory risks and increases industry predictability.
3) Digital demand and mobility
Record fees of 2024 coincided with the growth of the online channel in the region; MEF materials emphasize a stable up-trend in receipts. For Paraguay, this is a signal: with access from several brands and clear rules, online growth will accelerate.
4) Tourism and events
2.2 million + visits in 2024 and SENATUR's focus on MICE/events expand the funnel for "combo products" (sports + betting, casino hotels + online entertainment, fan activation for matches), which also pulls online monetization.
What will determine the success of operators
Product and UX
Mobile first: fast live center, cashout without pitfalls, local markets (Primera División, CONMEBOL), bilingual elements (ES + interspersed guarani).
A wide stack of verticals: sports, online casinos (according to the framework of the law), instant games - subject to a clear secondary.
Payments and localization
PYG-first (deposits/withdrawals in Guaraní), transparent fees and limits.
KYC/AML compliance with DNIT/CONAJZAR standards is an "entrance ticket" for advertising and partnerships.
Marketing and Sponsorship
Transition to "responsible" integrations in sports and tourism: age tags, without targeting minors, transparent promo conditions.
Synergy with the growth of tourist flow (derby packages/cups, fan events, hotel collaborations).
Market potential: where will the growth come from
1. The legalization of competition → the growth of ARPU/activations due to the bonus economy, improved UX and wider lines (especially live).
2. Reducing the "gray" → DNIT + CONAJZAR receive more monitoring tools, which transfers users to the licensed segment (higher collection, lower risk of "non-payments").
3. Tourism of 2024 as a base of → in border and resort hubs (Ciudad del Este, Encarnacion) offline assets fuel online habits, the cross-conversion of "guest → app" is growing.
Risks and how to minimize them
Delay of secondary housing (rules for tender and online verticals) may postpone the launch of market players. The solution is to publish technical requirements and temporary roadmaps in advance.
Competitive asymmetry: if domain labeling/registries appear late, "gray" sites will mimic legal ones. The marker can be a single DNIT/CONAJZAR registry and public lists of valid licenses.
Reputational risks: aggressive marketing without RG filters; is removed by mandatory limits, self-exclusion, transparent advertising policy.
Investor/Operator Checklist (2025→2026)
1. Follow the tender-2026 and packages of requirements (finance, payment gateways in PYG, KYC/AML, reporting).
2. Prepare local payment stack and integration with DNIT-compliant providers.
3. Localize the product for PY sports (Primera, Libertadores/Sudamericana), make the live face "light" and fast.
4. RG by design: limits, timeouts, self-exclusion of 2-3 taps, visible spending statistics - this will reduce churn and strengthen the confidence of the regulator/partners.
5. Sponsorship plan: Sports/tourism with emphasis on responsible communication.
What it means for the state
Fiscal multiplier: a stable increase in fees is already visible on the statistics of 2024; competition and online whitening can add revenue for municipalities/departments.
Control and protection: integration into DNIT and a new legal framework provide tools to combat illegal and implement responsible play standards.
Paraguay enters 2026 with a rare combination of growth factors: a new legal model (Ley 7438/2025 + decree), a tender for multi-license rates, a strong institutional "bunch" of CONAJZAR-DNIT, record fees for 2024 and a tourist up-trend. If the secondary to the tender is published transparently and on time, online gambling will receive a powerful impetus: more legal brands, a high-quality mobile product in PYG, civilized marketing and an increase in budget revenues - while reducing risks for players.
Sources: MEF/CONAJZAR press releases on fees-2024; publications on Ley 7438/2025 and decree-2025 (reform and integration of CONAJZAR→DNIT); messages about the planned tender-2026; SENATUR/Agencia IP and EFE data on 2.2 million visits in 2024.