Forecast to 2030 (Venezuela)

Until 2030, the Venezuelan gambling industry will develop under the influence of four factors: macroeconomics, regulation, payment infrastructure (including stablecoins) and consumer culture (mobile, sports, streams). Below is a realistic forecast with three scenarios, key drivers, success metrics and practical steps for the state, operators and players.

Assumptions (2025→2030)

Mobile first: > 85% of sessions - from smartphones; short game "sprints."

Stablecoins (USDT/USDC) - online standard; offline - cards/wallets + "white" on/off-ramp.

Sports as anchor: Football and baseball shape betting "prime times"; esports is a growing segment at 18-25.

Social sensitivity: responsible practices (limits, self-exclusion) are a necessary condition for trust.

Three scenarios until 2030

A) Managed liberalization (probability: high)

Essence: centralized licensing of online games, GGR-tax 15-20%, brand/domain/PSP register, ombudsman, self-exclusion center, API reporting T + 0/T + 1.

Total by 2030:

Share of "white" online ≥60% of turnover; fiscal receipts are stable.
Margarita Island is fixed as a showcase of casino tourism (1-2 resort anchors + a network of hotel halls).
Crypto payments go through accredited on/off-ramp; the median of the T + 0/T + 1 cache becomes the norm.
Public support is based on the reporting of RG and foundations (sports/culture/prevention).

B) Partial liberalization without a "white tire" of payments (probability: average)

The Point: The law is there, but PSPs/crypto providers are unaccredited.

Total by 2030:

Gray channels retain a significant proportion; fiscal effect below potential.
Reputational risks due to payment delays and disputed bonuses.

C) Shade preservation (probability: low)

The bottom line: tough bans without an alternative.

Total by 2030:

Traffic departure to offshore/instant messengers, tax losses, growth of social harm.
Low investment activity, stagnation of offline.

Growth Drivers 2025-2030

1. Regulation "digital from birth"

Public register of brands/domains/suppliers, API monitoring, as well as standard SLA payments.

2. Payments and fintech

"White" on/off-ramp for USDT/USDC; payment statuses in applications, limits and anti-fraud.

3. Product

Balance: slots + live casino + sports (football/baseball) + esports + lotteries ("animalitos").

Honest bonuses with a brief summary of the conditions on one screen.

4. Tourism and clusters

Margarita and coastal cities: resort anchors, MICE, gastro and music festivals, poker series.

5. Responsible Gaming

Default limits, self-exclusion, "night restrictions," NGO partnerships and educational campaigns.

Technological trends

Omnichannel: a single account/wallet for online and offline (loyalty points, cashback in USDT).

Next-generation live content: game shows, local studios, fast missions.

RG behavioral analytics: overheating detectors, soft timeouts, personalized limits.

Payment automation: microcashouts in the onechen with anti-fraud gates.

Tourism and regional brand

Margarita is the main beneficiary: "day sea - evening show" + transparent rules.

A bunch of casino events with baseball (LVBP), football and gastro weeks gives a year-round flow.

By 2030, expansion into another 1-2 resort enclaves is possible with stable regulation.

Economic benchmark (under scenario A)

Tax base: an increase in the collection of GGR tax year-on-year; by 2030 - a steady, predictable flow.

Employment: dealers/croupiers, IT/fraud analytics, support, event management, marketing.

Investments: local live game studios, fintech providers, HR training.

Indirect effects: growth in ADR/RevPAR, F&B turnover, transport services.

Social sustainability

Indicators of well-being: the number of players with active limits, self-exclusion, support response time, and the proportion of disputes resolved.

Communication: annual report "Where did the money go" (sports/culture/prevention), RG metrics in the public domain.

Risks and how to contain them (RAG)

Risk	Probability	Influence	Mitigating measures
Legal volatility	Average	High	Fixing rates/rules for 3-5 years, pilots + KPI
Payment failures/AML flags	Average	Average	Register of "white" PSP/crypto partners, statuses T + 0/T + 1
Reputation bonuses	Average	Average	Brief summary of terms, audit promo, ban hyperbole
Social harm	Average	High	Limits, self-exclusion, NPO financing, "night" restrictions
Grey competition	Average	High	Locks + available legal alternative, Ombudsman

Market KPI by 2030 (Scenario A)

Fiscal

Share of "white" payments ≥80% of online

GGR tax collection vs. plan (≥95%)

Operating rooms

Median cashout ≤ 24 h (T + 0/T + 1)

Reporting uptime/API ≥ 99%

Support SLAs: 90% hits ≤ 60 min

RG

≥50% of active players with limits

Response time to red flags ≤ 24 hours

The share of controversial cases resolved through the Ombudsman ≥ 85%

Tourism

ADR/RevPAR in resort areas: double-digit growth by 2030

Number of MICE events and festivals (year on year +)

Roadmap 2025-2030 (condensed)

2025

Law + by-law: categories of licenses (sports/casino RNG/live/B2B), GGR, advertising, RG.

2026

Accreditation of "white" on/off-ramp (incl. stablecoins).

Pilots of online licenses (5-10), self-exclusion center, API reporting T + 0/T + 1.

Pilot of hotel rooms; preparation of a resort anchor on Margarita.

2027

Launch of the 1st resort casino + MICE calendar; local live studio.

Scaling licenses, auditing bonuses ("secret buyer"), campaigns "Where to play legally."

2028

Expansion of "white" PSP, automation of cashouts, report "Where did the money go."

Partnerships with baseball/football/e-sports, international festivals.

2029–2030

Second resort anchor/new resort hubs, export of Spanish-language services (support, fraud analytics).

Consolidation of RG metrics as an industry standard; updating rules based on KPIs.

FAQ (short)

Legalization will automatically remove the "gray"?

No, it isn't. Need a pair: control + convenient alternative (quick payments, honest bonuses, brand registry).

Crypto will solve all payment problems?

Only in the "white" bus on/off-ramp with KYC/AML and transparent statuses.

Why is GGR tax better than working capital?

It reflects the real economics of the game and reduces the incentive to go into the shadows.

Margarita - not too narrow?

This is a showcase: a controlled island zone with a maximum multiplier for tourism, then scaling.

By 2030, Venezuela could transform the gambling sector from a "grey" ecosystem into a regulated digital industry with tax returns, jobs and a visible contribution to tourism. The key is managed liberalization: transparent licenses, white payments, API supervision, honest bonuses and Responsible Gaming by default. Such a set turns risk into opportunity - for the state, business and society.