Torrent Gear

The pros and cons of the Fibonacci strategy

1) What is this strategy

Fibonacci strategy - a linearly growing progression of rates for outcomes 1:1 (red/black, even/odd, etc.).

The sequence of rates follows the Fibonacci series:

1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, …

Losing → move one step forward in a row (increase the bet).

Winning → roll back two steps (reduce the bet).

The idea: A series of failures overlaps with one or two wins without an explosive rate rise, as in martingale.

2) How it works in practice (mini example)

We put 1 C.U. basic:

Loss: rates go 1 → 1 → 2 → 3 → 5 →...
Winning bet 5 brings us back to bet 2 (two steps back).
The cycle is often closed with a small plus or a series of small minuses if the winnings do not come at the right time.

3) Formulas and requirements for the bank

Let you "stand ready" to (n) consecutive losses.

The maximum bet in step (n) is (F_n).

Total risk (required bank) before step (n):

[
BR_{\min};\approx;\sum_{k=1}^{n} F_k;=;F_{n+2}-1.
]

That is, the bank is not growing exponentially, as in martingale, but still quickly. For example, at (n = 10): (F_{12}-1=144-1=143) c.u.

💡 Important: in reality, win-lose series are added, which is why the bank should be even larger, and the table limits are reached faster than it seems on paper.

4) The wait remains the same

In games with edge> 0 (for example, European roulette ~ 2. 70% vs. 1:1 bets) the expectation on each bet is negative.

The Fibonacci strategy does not change RTP and probability - it only redistributes rates over time, increasing turnover. And the expected result ≈ − edge × turnover.

5) How Fibonacci differs from martingale

Plus: rates grow more slowly, so psychologically easier and less often you rest on the maximum table.

Minus: slow growth does not save from long series and accumulation of total minus; overlapping sometimes requires multiple wins in a row, rather than one like a martingale.

6) Long run risks (approximation)

Denote by (p) - probability of winning, (q = 1-p) - loss (in roulette 1:1 (p≈18/37), (q≈19/37≈0. 5135)).

The probability (n) of losing in a row is (q ^ {n}).

Chance to see at least one such series for (T) bets: (1- (1-q ^ {n}) ^ {T}).

Even a "moderate" series of 10 minuses is not uncommon over a long distance - and it is she who "breaks" the progression.

7) Fibonacci strategy pros

Softer on the can than martingale. Linear growth reduces the likelihood of an instant stop at the limit.

Structures the game. Clear forward/backward step rules help maintain discipline.

Psychologically more comfortable. Slower growing bets reduce tilt in some players.

8) Cons (key)

The expectation doesn't change. RTP/edge remain the same; at a distance, losing is proportional to turnover.

Clustering sensitivity. Asynchronous winnings (between large bets) do not overlap the series - a "loop" of loss accumulates.

The bank and limit are also finite. With long series, the amount of bets (\sum F_k) grows rapidly; "wall" comes suddenly.

Acceleration of turnover. Progression increases turnover/hour → the expected "price of the hour" increases:

(Loss_{hour}≈edge×stake× (rates/min) × 60).

9) When a strategy "looks" good - and why it's deceptive

In short stretches, successful wins in the middle steps give a "beautiful" curve and a sense of control. But statistically rare protracted series reset these pluses. This is the same effect as martingale, only "softer and longer."

10) Mini example (roulette, rate 1 cu.)

L-L-L-W series sequence (loss-gain):

1, 1, 2, 3 (win) → rollback to 1. Cycle total: − 1 − 1 − 2 + 3 = − 1.
It takes at least two wins at the top steps in a row to close the tail of the series - and this is not guaranteed.

11) Safe alternatives

Rate as% of current bankroll:

High-Vol: 0. 25–0. 75% BR; Mean: ~ 1% BR; Low/1: 1: 1-2% BR.
Play in series: record time, SL/TP (for example, − 20... − 40 %/+ 30... + 150% of the session budget).
Speed: less auto-spins ⇒ lower turnover/hour.
Product choice: European roulette instead of American roulette; into slots - version with higher RTP.
Bonus hygiene: consider Bonus × Wager × edge (games) - sometimes this partially compensates for edge (but does not "break" the math).

12) Pre-Fibonacci checklist

Know the table limit and your BR? How many steps of the series can I really stand?

I understand that EV rates are negative and the progression does not change it?

Ready for series in (n) cons and rate (F_n) psychologically?

Have a closing time plan/SL/TP without dogons?

Fibonacci's strategy is a softer progression than martingale, but not a cure for edge. Its advantages are discipline and slower rate growth; its disadvantages are constant negative expectation, vulnerability to long series and final bank/limits. If the goal is risk control and predictable playtime, it is better to rely on a% bankroll rate, short sessions, speed control and the choice of cheaper edge games.