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Why it's important to test your strategy in demo mode
Demo mode is a safe testing ground for ideas: you get the same rules of the game and RNG behavior (in most cases), but without the risk of a bankroll. A properly organized test in the demo allows you to understand the risk profile of the strategy, its sensitivity to volatility and typical "deserts" before you spend money.
1) What exactly gives a demo test
Zero financial risk: You can "burn" thousands of spins to see the tails of the distribution.
Condition control: fixed rate, same slot/version, reproducibility.
Rapid hypothesis validation: comparison of betting strategies (flat vs progression), session lengths, limits and timeouts.
Risk map: frequency of long L-streak, depth of drawdowns, quantiles of intervals before bonus/ × 10 +.
2) What to measure first
1. Actual RTP of the selection: amount of payments/amount of bets.
2. Hit Frequency (HF): proportion of spins paid> 0.
3. Intervals to significant events (≥×5, ≥×10, bonus): median, 75th percentile.
4. Drawdowns: max drawdown and its duration.
5. Session statistics: result, duration, number of bonuses, size and frequency of bets (if changing).
6. Stability: repeatability of metrics on independent samples of the same length.
3) How to set the correct experiment
One factor at a time. You change only one thing: the size of the bet, the rule of progression, the length of the session - fix everything else.
Fix the plan in advance. When start/stop, at which L-streak - a break, as you think "success."
Sufficient volume. For the basic picture - from 5-10 thousand spins; for tails, more.
Independent runs. Divide the test into batches (for example, 1000 spins each) and see the spread between them.
Confidence intervals. Show not only the average, but also the intervals of uncertainty (for example, bootstrap).
4) How many spins are needed (quick reference points)
Estimating HF with acceptable error requires thousands of observations: standard error (\approx\sqrt {HF (1-HF )/N}).
For rare events (for example, (q =\mathbb {P} (\ text{≥×50} )\sim 0. 5%)) on 2000 spins, you may not see the event at all - this is normal; plan 10k + or use simulations.
To compare the two strategies, keep the same volumes and apply simple t-/permutation tests to the average multiplier per spin/session.
5) How not to fool yourself with results
Do not adjust your strategy to a "successful" period. Any strategy will show "candy" on a small sample.
Repeatability> one-time record. Watch the median and quantize by batches, not one better run.
Mixing conditions is taboo. Do not change the RTP slot/version/currency in the middle of the test.
Don't confuse bet management with advantage. Progressions change the shape of distribution, but not expectation.
6) Demo limitations and how to take them into account
RTP versions. The same slot can have multiple RTP pools. Make sure the demo matches the combat version.
Promotions/missions/cashback. In real life, external factors are added (cashback, tournament points) - they are not in the demo; don't overestimate "pure" math.
Psychology. Without real money, decisions are calmer; emotions are stronger in battle. Set self-control rules in advance (stop loss/time out).
Speed/latency. The demo sometimes spins faster/smoother; it does not affect the outcome of probabilities, but it does affect sensation and tempo.
7) What exactly to test (scenario checklist)
Session length: 200, 500, 1000 spins - how does the probability of "reaching" a "significant" event change?
Bet size: fixed vs share of the conditional bank; drawdown sensitivity to bet.
Exit rules: break profit, stop loss, "break after L-streak ≥ k."
Choosing volatility: One slot with high HF vs is highly volatile - compare the "cost of waiting" and the drawdown profile.
Threshold goals: the chance to end the session ≥ − 10%, ≥ 0%, ≥ + 20% of the bank.
8) Mini analysis procedure (without deep mathematics)
1. Collect logs: back number, bet, payout, flags (bonus/≥×10).
2. Calculate by batches 1000: actual RTP, HF, median of ≥×10 intervals, max drawdown.
3. Construct quantiles by batches (Q50/Q75/Q90) - this is the "typical" outcome.
4. Compare strategies on the same volumes; draw a conclusion on stability: where the spread is less, and not only "where once lucky."
5. Formulate rules for the real: bet size, limits, pause signals.
9) "Passport of Strategy" - a template for your materials
RTP slot/version: .../...
Bet: ... (fix/share)
Spins (total): ... (batches of 1000:... pcs.)
Actual RTP (median batches): ...% (IQR:... -...%)
HF (median): ...%
≥×10 intervals: median... spins; 75th percentile...
Max drawdown (median/90th percentile): .../... rates
Session goal chance (≥0 %/ ≥+20%): .../...
Entry/exit rules:...
Comment: Weaknesses, sensitivity to volatility, recommendations.
10) Frequent demo test errors
Test "to the first plus" - sampling bias, prohibition.
Mixing different slots/versions - the results are not comparable.
Lack of batches - there is no scatter and stability.
Conclusions on 100-300 backs are an anecdote, not a statistic.
Ignoring tails - one "skid" does not make the strategy work.
11) What to transfer to the real game
The same limits and pause rules that confirmed stability in the demo.
Conservative rate size calculated for experiencing 2-3 median intervals before ≥×10.
Honest session goal (by quantiles, not by dream).
Diary of sessions - continue to measure in real life to check the coincidence with the demo picture.
Bottom line: demo mode is a lab where it's safe to see the real price of volatility and test the robustness of the rules. It does not cancel the negative expectation and does not simulate the emotions of real money, but allows you to pre-adjust the size of the bet, limits and duration of the session, weed out self-deception and transfer to the real game only what has shown stability in large samples.