Why there is no perfect strategy
1) Short answer
There is no perfect strategy because:- most games have a house edge (RTP <100%), the outcomes are random and independent, the law of large numbers applies over a long distance, there are table/bet limits, rules and restrictions, and also different goals, budgets, risk profiles and psychology of players.
- Any "system" controls the trajectory (how the balance fluctuates), but does not cancel the average expectation of the game.
2) The mathematical framework you can't jump against
edge = 1 − RTP (in fractions).
Sales volume = bid × number of attempts.
Expected total ≈ − edge × EV turnover <0.
Change rates as you like - the average "entertainment price" is proportional to turnover. Progressions only accelerate it.
3) Dispersion and "bad luck on schedule"
Even in "cheap" games (low edge), volatility creates long series of losses.
At a short distance, any results are possible.
On the long - the result is drawn to waiting.
An "ideal" strategy would guarantee profit always and quickly, but variance does not allow this.
4) Limits, rules and anti-arbitration
Casinos/bookmakers and platforms defend the model: maximum bet limit, gaming restrictions, payouts, bonus caps, bans on "dangerous" patterns. Even if the scheme works temporarily, the rules adapt.
5) The human factor is stronger than the formula
Even a competent plan is ruined:- tilt and fatigue, input errors and violation of own rules, reassessment of probabilities (in sports/trading), greed (we do not record profit) and fear (early exit).
- An ideal strategy would suggest an ideal performer - there are no such people.
6) Different goals → different "optima"
Playtime and stability → rate ~ 1% BR, average volatility, hard SL/TP.
Hunt for a hit → less% of BR (0. 25–0. 75%), high-vol, short sessions.
Wager → low/mid-range allowed games, bet 0. 25–0. 5% BR, limit control.
EV> 0 (rarely in sports/stock exchange) → fractional Kelly (¼ - ½).
One universal recipe for all tasks is impossible.
7) Betting "strategies": why they're not perfect
Martingale and co. Accelerate turnover, run into limits and the bank; a rare tail eats dozens of small pluses.
Fibonacci/d'Alembert/Labouchère. Softer on the trajectory, but the same minus on expectation.
Paroli (reverse). Limits the loss per cycle, but win-series are rare, EV is the same.
Alternations/patterns. Useful for psychology and pace, not for expectation.
Neither converts EV <0 to EV> 0.
8) "But there are positive exceptions?" - Yes, and they are rare
Blackjack with a card score (offline, with suitable rules and without countermeasures).
Video poker on the right pay tables with the perfect game.
Value betting in sports under a qualitative probability model.
Promo with real overlay (rarely, not for long).
Even here, success requires data, discipline, bankroll, often teams and software. This is not a universal strategy and definitely not for "everyone and always."
9) What really works for almost everyone
This is not an "ideal strategy," but a framework of solutions:- A. Bankroll Management
- high-vol: 0. 25–0. 75% BR, medium: ~ 1% BR, low/1: 1: 1-2% BR.
- BR rebalance ± 10-20%.
B. Playing in series (not infinitely)
30-90 minutes, timer, pauses, SL/TP in advance (Medium: − 20 %/+ 30%; High-vol: −30…−40% / +60…+150%).
C. Turnover/speed control
Less auto-spins/min → lower "price per hour" = edge × rate × attempts/min × 60.
D. Choosing "cheap" products
European roulette> American; basic strategy in blackjack; slots - actual RTP higher.
E. Bonus hygiene
Count the "tax" from the wager: Bonus × Wager × edge (allowed games); comply with the bet limit and game list.
F. Diary and discipline
Record turnover, total, drawdown, modes - adjust percentages and duration.
10) Honest expectations instead of "ideal"
Ask yourself before the session:1. What is the goal (playtime/wagering/EV> 0)?
2. What edge/RTP and volatility does the product have here and now?
3. What% BR rate and duration fit into my risk profile?
4. Where is the stop loss/take profit and time limit?
5. Am I launching a "to fight back" progression?
6. For bonus: tax calculated, rules followed?
11) Frequent traps of "ideality"
Gambler's fallacy: "after a series of cons there should be a plus." No, it isn't.
The illusion of control: "I draw a bet → control the outcome." You manage risk, not probability.
Screenshots without rotation: the graph is "always up" without taking into account the variance and sample length.
Mixing goals: an attempt to simultaneously play for a long time, and "squeeze the maximum," and play the vager - leads to conflicts of rules.
12) The bottom line
The ideal strategy is a myth, because mathematics, rules and the human factor are stronger than any "systems." Instead of searching for a "magic button," collect your frame: a rate in% of the bankroll, short sessions with stop levels, pace control and the choice of "cheap" games, plus bonus arithmetic. And if you really have an advantage - scale it with fractional Kelly and introduce strict data discipline. This is not ideal, but the best that really works.
