Casinos in the G20 countries: the impact of the economy on gambling

Introduction: Economics as a "croupier"

The G20 countries give the lion's share of world GDP - and form the trajectories of gambling. The behavior of players and the revenue of operators are directly influenced here:

Inflation and Central Bank rates (cost of money → frequency of visits and average check), Exchange rate/tourism income (IR resorts, MICE), Fiscal burden (taxes on GGR/turnover/winnings), Payment rails (A2A/real-time, cards, mobile wallets), Regulation and advertising (responsible game, limits, affiliates), Digitalization (online-bets, omnichannel, KYC/AML).

Below is a map of influences by clusters and short conclusions on key economies.

1) Macro factors → casino and online revenue: how the chain works

Factor	Mechanics of influence	Effect for offline	Effect for online
Inflation/rates	Credit rises in price, discretionary income decreases	Fewer trips/check lower, stock sensitivity	Leaving in "short" sessions, demand for instant cashouts
Exchange rate	Expensive dollar/euro changes tourist flow	Countries with cheap vacations win	Cross-border growth is online, but payment filters are tougher
Tourism/MICE	Event agenda fills IR	GGR growth, high RevPAR/non-revenue	Cross-promo offline and applications
Payments (real-time)	Low fees, speed	Fast cash in halls, seamless wallets	Conversion and NPS rise, bonuses lose weight
Fiscal burden	Taxes/Fees → P&L	Hall/Content Investments Depend on Margin	The economy of the offer and affiliates "shrinks"
Advertising/RG	Limits and limits	Betting on service and loyalty	Transparent offers, behavioral RG-nudging

2) G20 clusters: where are what drivers

A. IR resorts and "tourist motor"

USA, Japan, South Korea, Australia

Economics. Strong domestic demand + tourism/MICE (Las Vegas, Macau-adjacent traffic in Asia, Australian complexes).

Regulation. Strict RG/AML standards; online rates and/or fenced models (details vary by state/country).

Payments. Focus on A2A/instant-rails and transparent output SLAs; cards lose share.

Inference. Income is diversified by non-genetic flows (hotels, arenas), online grows "in white" where it is open.

B. "Online Betting First"

Great Britain, Canada, part of the EU (inside the G20 - Germany, France, Italy), Brazil

Economics. High digital penetration, real competition online.

Regulation. Licensing, self-exclusion registries, advertising/creative restrictions.

Payments. Real-time/A2A and open-banking reduce the cost of deposit/withdrawal; hard KYC.

Inference. Speed> Bonuses. Leadership is given to brands with cashout ≤ 24h (P95) and fair offers.

C. "Tourism + offline, online dosed"

Indonesia (strict bans, focus on tourism outside iGaming), Mexico (offline + regulated online), Saudi Arabia (offline point exceptions, online banned), South Africa (offline casino, online betting), Turkey (government products; online casino - ban)

Economics. Tourist flow and resorts form an offline ticket office; online is severely limited/fragmented.

Payments. Bank filters cut "gray" routes; local wallets operate in a "white" perimeter.

Inference. Growth - through the service of resorts and "honest" offline loyalty programs; online wins the official perimeter (betting/lottery).

D. "Mega markets with a special trajectory"

India, China

India. Federal ban on "money" online games, green corridor for e-sports/social games; UPI as a benchmark for instant payments.

China/Hong Kong/Macau. Macau is an offline locomotive with tourism; mainland online iGaming for B2C is illegal, government products are an exception.

Inference. The economy is huge, but the "white" online iGaming is limited; offline resorts and state channels are anchor points.

E. "Currency swings and regulatory volatility"

Argentina, Russia

Economics. Devaluations/sanctions/inflation → the sensitivity of the average check and tourist flow.

Regulation. Spot map by region/vertical, changing advertising/payment rules.

Inference. Operators are important anti-fraud/compliance and the flexibility of the payment architecture, players - checking licenses and "white" channels.

3) Short "passport" notes for G20 countries

USA. IR model + online betting expansion by state; competition goes into cashout speed and RG tools.

Canada. Provincial markets with "white" online; open-banking/A2A reduce dependence on cards.

Great Britain. Mature licensing, tightening advertising and affordability checks, betting on quick payments.

Germany/France/Italy. Regulated verticals, strict advertising and tax burden, growth in A2A and responsible markting.

Japan. IR projects as MICE driver; B2C online casinos are illegal, emphasis on offline and government products.

South Korea. Strong offline (tourism), limited citizen access to casinos; online B2C is limited.

Australia. Online casinos are prohibited; "white" online betting, ban on credit cards/crypto, PayID/PayTo growth.

New Zealand (included in the "Invited Group," but often compared with the G20 models). Exceptions: Lotto/TAB; course for a separate law on online casinos.

Brazil. Online betting licensing, fantasy/sports momentum, hard KYC/AML and payment filters.

Mexico. Offline and regulated online combo; payments go to A2A/wallets, supervised advertising.

Argentina. By province: somewhere "white" online, somewhere not; the economy increases demand volatility.

Turkey. Gosloterei/sport - yes; private online casinos do not; payment filtering and ad stripping.

Saudi Arabia. Prohibition of private iGaming; development of tourism/event agenda offline.

SOUTH AFRICA. Africa's largest market: offline casinos + online white bets; strong RG/AML.

India. Prohibition of "money" online games; UPI and e-commerce raise the UX bar in "allowed" verticals.

China/Macau. Macau is an offline magnet; mainland B2C online is illegal, state channels are an exception.

Indonesia. Prohibitions; offline tourism outside iGaming.

Russia. Heterogeneous vertical norms, payment/advertising filters, high regulatory volatility.

💡 Note: the G20 also includes the EU as a united member - within it, countries with different regimes (regulated online in a number of states, a common line to tighten advertising and RG).

4) G20 payments: where is the "speed" screwed

General: widespread drift to the A2A/real-time; goals - lower fees, Confirmation of Payee, instant cashout, less chargeback noise.

Practical guidelines for G20 operators:

1. "Payment zipper" (2-3 PSP + fallback route), 2. Cashout P95 ≤ 24h, P80 ≤ 2h, 3. Matching account names and player profile, 4. Public SLAs and payment status dashboard, 5. Crypt - only where allowed and with Travel Rule/sledge screening.

5) Taxes and P&L: Why "high" markets aren't always worse

High rates of GGR taxes do not kill the market if they are compensated by the predictability of the rules, a developed payment infrastructure and understandable advertising. The most marginal models are born where:

stable currency environment, there is MICE/tourism (non-revenue income), strict but clear compliance (fewer "gray" bones), fast "white" payments (NPS and withholding).

6) Responsible play and advertising: "quality instead of decibels"

G20 synchronously promotes:

mandatory limits/self-exclusion, prohibition of "fast money" and targeting the vulnerable, liability of affiliates, audit of creatives and transparent T&C bonuses.
Operators gain reputation by publishing RG metrics and share of on-time cashouts.

7) 2025→2030 risks: where it will slow down and where it will accelerate

Slows down: countries with high inflation/currency volatility and chaotic advertising policies.

Accelerates: markets with real instant-rails and an understandable license for online betting; IR clusters where tourism and events are growing.

Uncertainty: mega markets with strong online bans (China, India for RMG) - growth only in "fenced" formats.

8) Playbook for the G20 operator

Strategy

Jurisdiction-first: we work only where the vertical is open.

Portfolio: offline IR + "white" online (where available) with a single loyalty program.

Operations

Payments: A2A/instant, duplicate PSPs, transparent output corridors.

RG 2. 0: personal limits, nooji, tracking "risk patterns."

Anti-fraud: "three rings" (device → payment → behavior), manual check in minutes.

Marketing

Registers of creatives, quality KPIs for affiliates (approval of cashouts, complaints, RG coverage).

Content localization: sports/holidays, language, live shows.

9) Memo to player (universal for G20)

1. Play with licensed operators - check the registers.

2. Pay in white: account name = profile name; avoid P2P/" exchangers. "

3. Include limits/self-exclusion; read the terms of the bonuses in "honest text."

4. Rate the service by output speed, not by bonus volume.

In the G20 countries, gambling is becoming an economy of speed, transparency and responsibility. Where inflation and currency swings are less, and payments are instant and white, both the player and the operator receive winnings. IR resorts are raising non-gambling revenue and tourism, online betting is becoming a "clean" part of the fintech landscape, and advertising and affiliates are living by RG rules. Until 2030, the trend is obvious: there are fewer gray life hacks, more predictable infrastructure - and it is she who will determine who will be in the black in the G20.