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Economy of bonuses, freespins and loyalty programs
Properly tuned bonuses are investments in incremental LTV, not "giveaways." Below is how to count the cost and effect of the promo, where the leaks are hidden and what rules will turn the bonus budget into a stable margin.
1) Terms and formulas (short)
BC (Bonus Cost) - the actual cost of the bonus, taking into account the wagering, breakage and provider deductions/taxes.
EV (bonus) - the expected cost of the bonus unit, taking into account RTP/wagering.
Breakage - share of unused/unplayed bonuses (reduces BC, but affects trust/activation).
Incremental LTV (iLTV) - increase in LTV due to promo, and not the entire LTV cohort.
Bonus ROI = (iLTV − BC) / BC.
Bonus Cost as% of GGR (BC% GGR) is the main margin gatehouse.
Wagering (x) - requirement for turnover before converting the bonus to cash balance.
Contribution rate - deduction to internal jackpots/funds from the bonus game.
Depot bonus cost formula base:[
\ text {BC }\approach\underbrace {B\cdot p_{\text{aktivatsii}}}{\text{vydano}}
\ cdot\underbrace {(1 -\text {breakage})} {\text {actually played}}
\cdot \underbrace{\left(1 - \text{HE}{\text{сред}}\cdot \min!\left(1,\frac{W}{\text{сред. turnover} }\right )\right)} {\text {return to the player, taking into account the replay}}
]Where (B) is the bonus value, (W) is the vager requirement (in multiples of B), (\text {HE} _ {Wednesdays}) is the average house edge of the selected games.
2) Types of bonuses and how to count their cost
Deposit (match bonus, e.g. 100% to $100)
Sources of value: wagering, selected content (RTP/HE), breakage share, betting limits, contribution to jackpot.
BC reduction: raise (W) (moderate), limit low NOT/high RTP games, cap on bet/volatility, minimum deposit.
No deposit (no-dep $/FS)
Expensive on BC, but strong on activation and reactivation.
Use small denominations and "steps" (opening the second step on deposit/mission).
Friespins (FS)
EV of one spin ≈ bet per × line (1 − HE of the selected slot).
Consider volatility: high spread → bursts of conclusions.
FS are good for content adoption and missions (set rewards).
Cashback/insurance
Transparent, but sensitive to abuse.
Effective in VIP schemes with personal mouth guards and RG frames.
Loyalty (points/statuses)
The cost is included in the conversion rate of points.
Important: scarce economy (seasons, award catalogs, soulbound badges) and understandable "value anchors."
3) Budget: where margin is lost
1. Stacking of shares (accumulation of several promos for one deposit/session).
2. Low HE (high RTP/go to "arbitration") games.
3. Payments (PSP fees for bonus deposits, deductions of small amounts).
4. Abuse (multi-accounts, cashout carousels, bonus hunting).
5. Tax/royalties (live casino providers take%, which is growing with turnover).
4) Anti-abuse: rules "in code"
Nonstarting shares and mutual exceptions.
Cap on bet/volatility for bonus funds.
List of excluded games (with RTP/arbitration mechanics).
Vager for net winnings, not deposit amounts, in the right cases.
Device/IP/payment binding, graph scoring of connections, velocity limits.
Delay-cashout until the end of the game + "readable receipts."
KPI: Abuse Rate, Fraud-Blocked Rate, share of cancellations according to the rules.
5) Accounts, taxes, jurisdictions
Liability: accrue the "value of expected repayment" of bonuses and points in the liability, recognize revenue when you win/expire.
Breakage policy: document the methodology (historical analysis of repayments, statute of limitations).
Gaming taxes: check if bonus GGR is taxed or only net; in a number of markets, bonuses reduce the tax base, in others they do not.
Provider royalties: more often taken from GGR with a bonus game - take this into account in EV.
6) Test methodology and attribution
The goal is to measure iLTV, not "beautiful clicks."
Design: Holdout groups (control without promo) and Split-By-Cohort (by source, country, value segment, risk).
Measurement horizon: minimum D30/D60 (for loyalty - season/quarter).
Test metrics: iLTV, Payback Period, Retention uplift, ARPPU uplift, BC% GGR, Refund/Chargeback Rate.
Statistics: predefined MDE, adjustment for multiple tests, Bayesian beta - suitable if you fix the stopping rules.
Attribution: do not confuse channel uplift with bonus - separate.
7) VIP loyalty circuit
Status ladder with "value-fair" exchange rate points.
Personal perks (accelerated outputs, host support, exclusive tournaments).
RG restrictions: personal limits, cool-off, pauses on risk signals.
KPI: VIP share of GGR, Churn VIP, Time-to-Payout VIP, Net Promo per VIP.
8) Responsible play and trust
Readable rules: vager, cap bets, excluded games, deadlines - in one screen.
Transparency Panel: How Much Won/How Much Left, EV Bonus, Expiry Date.
On-device RG signals: prompts for pause when accelerating tempo/fatigue (without unloading emo data).
Provably-Fair 2. 0 for stocks with chances (drops, rallies).
9) KPI-frame of the "health" of the bonus economy
BC% GGR (target corridors by market/segment).
Incremental LTV / Bonus ROI / Payback.
Activation Rate/Reactivation Rate (by source).
Retention D7/D30/D90 and ARPPU uplift vs control.
Abuse Rate / Fraud-Blocked Rate / Refund Rate.
Approval Rate/Time-to-Payout (on bonus checkouts).
Breakage% (and trend), Liability coverage (reserve).
10) Scenario analysis (example)
Cohorts D0: 10,000 new users.
Match Bonus 100% to $50, (W = 25x), cap bet $2, games HE ~ 4. 5%, breakage 22%, activation 48%.
BC calculation:- Issued nominally: $50 × 4,800 = $240k.
- Including breakage: $187.2k.
- Return EV at HE and vager (conditional 0.65): BC ≈ $122.7k.
- iLTV + $0.9 per user → + $9,000.
- Add. deposits + $85k GGR at HE → NGR + $42k (after royalties/payments).
- Final Bonus ROI ≈ (9k + 42k − 122.7k )/122.7k = − 57% → bad scenario.
- Fixes: lower the par to $25, raise breakage through the "first deposit mission," limit the list of games, add a "depot trigger" for the second step.
- Expected: BC falls by ~ 35-40%, iLTV decreases less → ROI goes to + 10-20%.
11) Optimization checklist (short)
1. Non-stocking stocks + excluded games + cap bets/volatility.
2. Mission onboarding: 2-3 step bonus with "unlock" on targeted actions.
3. Payments: local methods, limits on micro-outputs, fast SLA VIP.
4. Loyalty ladder: statuses, points course, seasonal catalogs, soulbound badges.
5. Anti-fraud graph and device/payment binding.
6. Transparent receipts: vager, balance, deadline, EV.
7. A/B with holdout: measure iLTV/Payback ≥ 2 × CAC, not clicks.
8. RG-framework: personal limits, pauses, understandable risks.
Bonus economics is about fine-tuning value and increment, not "generosity." Consider EV, keep BC% GGR in the target corridor, remove stacking and arbitration, strengthen payments and anti-fraud, make the rules transparent, and loyalty deficient and status. Then the bonus budget will stop "burning" and will begin to stably convert into long iLTV and profit.