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How pandemic and crises affected casino financials
The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent macrocyclic shocks (inflation, rising rates, energy crisis, geopolitics) have become a "crash test" for the entire offline entertainment industry. For casinos, this meant a synchronous hit to GGR, ADR/RevPAR, EBITDA, liquidity and covenants, and then an accelerated recovery with an inverted demand structure and a new operational discipline. Below is a systematic analysis of the impact on P&L, CF and balance, as well as practical conclusions.
1) Chronology of shock and recovery (in general terms)
2020: complete shutdown
Closures and capacity limitations → GGR collapses (often − 50-90% during lockdown months).
Zero/negative EBITDA, while fixed costs (security, minimum staff, utilities, rentals) continue to "burn."
Urgent measures: reducing CAPEX, freezing buyback/dividend, negotiating covenants and leases, increasing credit lines.
2021: step opening
Restart regional markets faster than tourist destinations; "locales" and auto traffic are crowding out air traffic.
The mix changed in favor of a mass segment and "daytime" visits; VIP rocks and MICE returned more slowly.
Margins recovered faster than revenue due to a strict operating diet.
2022: Inflation and rising rates
Pressure on COGS/opex (energy, salaries, food), higher debt service costs.
Increase in hotel/restaurant rates, optimization of promos and computers; point price increase of the game (minimum bets/limits).
Returning MICE/events gradually normalized ADR/RevPAR in "destinations."
2023-2025: "new normality"
Structural bias: high contribution from local/regional markets, more disciplined promos, hybrid offline + online.
Operators withheld part of the "anti-crisis thinness" of expenses, automated the front/back office and laid down the "rules in the code" (limits, responsible practices).
2) How the crisis hit P&L
Revenue (GGR/Net Revenues)
Collapses into lockdowns, then V-shaped restoration of regions and U-shaped - at tourist hubs.
Mix shifted towards slots and mass segment (above margin, below comp intensity).
Negaming (hotels/food and beveridge/events) has returned more slowly, especially where there is a dependency on MICE.
Gross/operating margin
Despite the sagging revenue, the EBITDA margin in recovery turned out to be higher than the pre-crisis one for many regional operators due to:- stripped-down promos and computers;
- low staffing of halls with an increase in productivity;
- digitalization (online onboarding, self-service cash desks, cashless/wallets).
OPEX/COGS
Increase in personnel costs, energy, safety, sanitary regulations.
Decrease in marketing "distributions" and more targeted CPAs/bonuses with anti-abuse rules.
3) Cash flow and balance sheet
Liquidity
Increasing credit lines, attracting "pillows" through debts/envelopes.
Mass CAPEX deferralization, transfer of optional projects.
Debt burden
Temporary deterioration of Net Debt/EBITDA due to the fall in the denominator in 2020-2021; then - return to goals through EBITDA growth and partial refinances.
In 2022-2024, the rise in debt prices → focus on extending duration and fixing rates.
REIT structures and sale-leaseback
The monetization of real estate through REIT/SLB allowed to replenish liquidity and reduce the LTV balance, but increased fixed rental payments (similar to interest).
4) Operational shifts that remain
Promo discipline: less blanket bonuses, more trigger personalization and "cost to hold" instead of "cost to first dip."
Automation and self-service: cash desks, mobile checkout, digital wallets, contactless passes.
Shift in the product: more weight of slots and "fast" games, optimization of live tables by peak hours.
Omnichannel: link with iGaming/sports book/social activities, unified CRM and loyalty statuses.
RG tools: limits, pauses, transparent receipts - as the basis for admission to "white" advertising channels and sustainable demand.
5) Geography of influence: different trajectories
US/Europe regional markets: rapid return of local demand; the player arrived by car - less dependence on airlines.
Tourist hubs (Las Vegas, Macau, Singapore, etc.): dependence on MICE/international tourist flow → a longer recovery cycle, but a strong upside in the phase of returning conventions and "event megaseason."
Countries with severe restrictions on entry/exit: GGR recovery was late, but then sharply accelerated when barriers were removed.
6) Key metrics that have "changed shoes"
GGR/Active and frequency of visits - core of short LTV.
EBITDA/margin is a measure of retained thinness of expenses.
ADR/RevPAR (for IR model) - MICE/tourist flow health proxy.
Net Debt/EBITDA and Liquid runway is a balance sheet discipline.
Bonus Cost as% of GGR and Abuse Rate - Promo Performance.
Payment Approval Rate and Time-to-Payout - friction in the check-out.
RG indicators (share of players on limits, complaints/1k sessions) - a condition for admission to performance channels.
7) Anti-crisis playbooks that worked
1. Cash is king: stretching the runway for 12-18 months, tight CAPEX control, prioritization of ROI projects.
2. Covenants and leases: early negotiations with creditors/landlords, switching to covenants "for liquidity" instead of "for margin" at the peak of lockdowns.
3. Portfolio flexibility: temporary closure of low-margin sites/halls, concentration of capacities and personnel in "thick" locations.
4. Data instead of intuition: microsegmentation, tests of promotional mechanics, personal limits/missions instead of mass "distributions."
5. Omnichannel circuit: linking offline with online (uniform statuses/wallets/bonuses), cross-selling at the moments of closure.
6. Energy management: contracts/hedges for electricity and gas, smart loads, revision of clock slots for energy-intensive zones.
8) Next cycle risks
Rate risk: possible new rounds of tightening monetary policy increase the cost of debt and reduce the valuation of multiples.
Wage/energy inflation: pressure on margins when rolling back "anti-crisis thinness."
Regulatory and taxes: the risk of point restrictions (rate limits, marketing), an increase in the fiscal burden.
Dependence on MICE and air traffic: the IR model remains cyclical by congress/event.
Reputational/compliance incidents: able to "eat up" a year of marketing - need transparent PF/responsible UX.
9) What to fix in the strategy for 2025 +
Dual-circuit revenue: regional "locales" + destination IR; balanced MICE calendar.
Operating minimum by default: automation, sourcing, KPI for the "unit of revenue per employee."
Omnichannel and data: a single profile, wallet, statuses; PF artifacts and readable receipts.
Debt discipline: Net Debt/EBITDA target, long duration, partial rate fixing.
RG design: limits and pauses in UX, on-device recommendations; trust as a pass into growth channels.
Energy strategy: tariff windows, modernization of lighting/HVAC, KPI for kWh/m ².
10) CFO/COO "checklist" for next shock
Liquidity ≥ 12 months of fixed costs; reserve credit lines confirmed.
CAPEX pool ranked by NPV/payback period; "red button" transfer is ready.
A set of demand scenarios (50/75/90% of the base) with triggers to disable promo/services.
Weekly monitoring: GGR/Active, EBITDA margin, energy consumption, Approval Rate, complaints/1k sessions, RG metrics.
Negotiation playbooks: banks/landlords/regulators/energy suppliers.
Communication with guests: transparent rules, an honesty panel, quick payments - to maintain loyalty in turbulence.
The pandemic and subsequent crises first broke the usual casino economy, and then formed a more sustainable one: with spending discipline, thoughtful promotional policies, omnichannel and responsible UX. The financial model, which survived 2020-2022, has become less dependent on "expensive" marketing and more on operational efficiency and trust. The next cycle is won by the one who keeps liquidity and debt under control, measures everything that affects the margin, and builds an experience where the player understands the rules and appreciates transparency.