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How fear of losing gets in the way of decision-making
1) Short answer
Fear of losing distorts the estimate of probabilities and cost of risk. Instead of a rational EV choice, the player begins to avoid actions, reduce the bet too sharply in the pros and raise it in the cons, postpone pauses and "sit out" bad decisions. As a result, discipline falls, the cost of an hour increases and the chance to break stop rules increases.
2) Where does fear come from: psychology and the brain
Loss aversion: loss subjectively "hurts" more than an equivalent gain pleases.
Perspective theory: people underestimate the likely small benefits and overestimate the small chances of "repulsing everything at once"; in the loss zone are prone to risk-seeking behavior.
Myopic loss aversion: Frequent outcome checks increase stress and fear by provoking impulse decisions.
Neuroscience: with the threat of loss, norepinephrine/cortisol grows → attention narrows, prefrontal control falls → "I do not hurt now," and not optimally in general.
3) How fear breaks decisions - five typical patterns
1. Freezing (omission): "it is better not to change anything →" skipping advantageous situations, disrupting the pause/withdrawal plan.
2. Tilt caution: after the minus, a bet "to dust," then a "jerk" up, when emotions take over - a sawtooth risk.
3. Rollback syndrome: early fixation of small profits for fear of losing, but lack of foot on loss.
4. Escalating obligations: "invested too much to get out" - we keep a bad strategy, afraid to fix the minus.
5. Avoidance of pauses: fear of admitting loss pushes to "finish the game" - turnover and fatigue grow.
4) Diagnosis: Check yourself
Do you cut your profit and stop loss less often?
Do you change the rate after the minus/" almost," and not according to plan?
Do you delay pause/output so as not to look like a loser?
Do you check the result every couple of minutes and change decisions from this?
If "yes" by 2 + points, fear already controls the setpoint and timing.
5) Antidotes: a system of three circuits
Loop A - Before start (rigid frame)
Purpose: Time/wager/fun (not "reclaim loss").
Bank per session and base rate (u): (u =\frac {\text {bank of session}} {\text {target spins/events}}).
Stop loss = 1-2 × expected "turnover value" ((1-\text {RTP} )\cdot N\cdot u) or equivalent with margin for bets.
Break profit: fixed multiplier/sum of → after reaching a pause/partial withdrawal of 50-70%.
Rate corridor: ± 10-15% of (u); exit from the corridor is prohibited.
The rule of rare checks is to watch the total in blocks (for example, every 15 minutes/100 spins), and not every minute.
Loop B - In Game (Solution Filters)
Micropause 5-10 minutes with emotions ≥4/5 or three minuses/series "almost."
Do not lower/raise (u) out of fear - only according to plan (corridor, blocks in time/backs).
Timer and counter: fix the end of the block so as not to tighten "until fear stops."
Turn off autospin when agitated - return prefrontal control.
Contour C - After (counting and decognition)
Magazine: turnover, result, promo, duration, emotions (1-5), TILT, FEAR, NEAR tags.
Rolling total of 10-20 sessions: does fear "stop" you before/after plan?
Corrections - only between sessions: if fear breaks limits, reduce (u) and/or time limit by 20-30% per week.
6) Tools against fear (step by step)
Repackaging the result: count the cost of turnover/hour, not "today minus." This removes the need to urgently "whitewash" the result.
Forced symmetry: teak profit and stop loss are given together; You can change both, but only between sessions.
Solution templates: "If DD ≥ X% - pause," "If + Y u - Z% output." The pattern replaces the emotion.
The threshold of "doing nothing": at the peak of fear - one action: a pause. Any other activity is prohibited until cooling down.
Depersonalization of money: auto-withdrawal of part of the profit; the remainder is "next block budget" rather than "my loser/winner status."
7) Mini sobriety calculators
Expected loss per hour (slots):[
\ mathbb {E} [\text {Loss/hour} ]\approx (1-\text {RTP} )\cdot\text {revolution/hour}
]Fear → fussy rate corrections → most often more turnover/hour with the same house.
Net ROI for the period:[
\ text {Net ROI} =\frac {\text {profit} -\text {commission} +\text {promo}} {\text {turnover}}
]Check decisions "on fear" with Net ROI and confidence interval; pulses almost always degrade the metric.
8) Scenarios and what to do
A. A series of cons, scary to continue
A pause of 10 minutes → if emotions> 3/5 is the end of the session.
For the next session: (u) − 20%, time limit − 20% per week.
B. Fear of "losing winnings" → early exit
Reached teik profit - 50-70% withdrawal and pause. The balance is according to the original (u), without "greedy" adjustments.
C. Fear of missing out (FOMO)
"Decision window" 60-90 seconds to check EV; did not have time - a pass, without exception.
9) Anti-fear checklist
- To start: goal, (u), N, stop loss, break profit, time limit.
- Rate corridor is set and observed.
- There is a rule of rare result checks (in blocks).
- Emotion pauses are ≥4/5 performed.
- FEAR/TILT/NEAR are noted in the log; decisions only change between sessions.
10) Mythbuster (short)
"If I record a minus now, I will forever be lost. "- Fixation is a control of variance, not a "stigma."
"I'd rather sit by inaction than make a mistake. "- Omission is also a solution; often worse than the plan.
"We must fight back to remove the alarm. "- Tilt will only increase turnover and the risk of breaking limits.
"A small bet is always safer. "- Too small a bet breaks the plan (eternal sessions, depletion of attention); need the correct setpoint, not the minimum.
11) The bottom line
Fear of losing is a normal emotion, but a bad adviser. He shifts the set point, breaks the timing and turns the plan into a reaction to the pain of "here and now." Return control using hard frames before starting, filters and pauses during the game and accounting after. With such rules, decisions are again based on mathematics and process, and not on the impulse "just not to lose."