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Why excitement makes it difficult to rationally assess risks
1) Short answer
Excitement makes it difficult to soberly assess risk, because anticipation of a rare reward activates the dopamine system and "narrows" attention: the brain overestimates bright outcomes and underestimates base frequencies (RTP/margin, variance). At the peak of emotions, cognitive traps are turned on - from the "hot hand" to the rejection of losses - and decisions are shifted to a greater rate, speed and duration, although the mathematical expectation does not change.
2) Neuromechanics: why excitement "noises" the calculation
Dopamine = expectation, not fact. Surprise gives a surge of motivation to "play more" - rational reservations fade into the background.
Reward Prediction Error (RPE). The discrepancy between expectations and outcome "teaches" the brain to look for new attempts exactly where a rare plus happened - even if EV is negative.
Narrowing of attention. Norepinephrine/epinephrine, when excited, accelerates decisions but impairs control and performance of the prefrontal cortex.
3) Seven cognitive biases that make the risk seem lower
1. Hot hand: A run of wins feels like a sign of "form."
2. Player error: After the cons, "must turn."
3. Illusion of control: Timing/rituals are perceived as an influence on chance.
4. Availability/freshness bias: A recent skid "shouts" months of routine.
5. Loss aversion: fear of fixing the minus pushes to catch up.
6. Surviving luck: we see the winners/skid clips, we do not see mass cons.
7. Near miss ("almost won"): loss is experienced as "almost success" → a false signal "risk will pay off."
4) How it distorts math in practice
House underestimation: (\text {HE} = 1-\text {RTP}) is perceived by abstraction; emotions decide in the moment.
Ignoring variance: rare large winnings are overestimated → it seems that "often in the pros."
Reassessment of the pace: "I twist faster - I catch faster →" the turnover/hour and the expected loss grow.
Changing volatility "to emotions": the pursuit of "sharp" regimes without calculating a bankroll increases the risk of drawdown.
5) Where excitement is especially dangerous for sobriety
Immediately after winning: the effect of "money from the casino" → stavka↑, temp↑.
After the series "almost": "I'm close" → stavka↑ without improving EV.
Late at night: fatigue reduces control, sessions drag on.
Live and timers: little time to check the line → impulse instead of calculation.
6) Mini-model of the cost of excitement
Expected loss per hour for slots:[
\ mathbb {E} [\text {Loss/hour} ]\approx (1-\text {RTP} )\times\text {revolution/hour}
]The passion usually = a rate ↑ × speed ↑ × time ↑ ⇒ grows turn/hour at a former lodge.
7) The "sobriety return" system: before, during, after
A. Before start - rigid circuit
The purpose of the session: time/wager/entertainment (not "earnings").
Bank and base rate (u =\frac {\text {bank}} {N}), where (N) is the round plan.
Stop loss: (SL = (1-\text {RTP} )\cdot N\cdot u\times k ,\k\in [1; 2]).
Break profit: fixed amount/multiplier; after - pause and partial withdrawal of 50-70%.
Rate corridor: ± 10-15% of (u); exit is prohibited "because of emotions."
Black list of triggers: WIN-PEAK, 3 − in a row, NEAR series, live ideas from the ceiling.
B. During - excitement filters
The pause rule is 5-10 minutes for any trigger/emotion ≥4/5.
Autospin OFF during burst; unit timer 45-60 minutes.
Live window: 60-90 seconds to check EV; did not have time - pass.
Banning dogons and extending time - changes only between sessions.
C. After - accounting and calibration
Magazine: turnover, result, promo, duration, emotions (1-5), tags WIN-PEAK/NEAR/TILT/LIVE.
Rolling total of 10-20 sessions against sensation.
A/B-checking habits: week "according to plan" vs "add after triggers" → compare Net ROI and drawdown.
8) Quick Solution Templates (on the wall)
"WIN-PEAK →" pause 10 min, output 50-70%, return to (u).
"3 − in a row →" pause, end of block, transfer of decisions.
"NEAR series →" pause 5-10 minutes, do not raise the rate.
"Live <60 sec →" skipping with no exceptions.
"Emotions ≥4/5 →" stop block.
9) Sobriety metrics
Net ROI: (\frac {\text {earnings} -\text {fees} +\text {promo}} {\text {turnover}}).
Compliance: (\frac {#\text {sessions with SL, TP and limit}} {#\text {all}}), target ≥80%.
Cost per hour: ((1-\text {RTP} )\times\text {revolution/hour}) - track before/after excitement triggers.
10) Typical scenarios and what to do "in the moment"
Skidding x150 → "press on": 60% output → pause → basic (u); prohibition to change the game in this session.
Three minuses in a row → "fight back": a pause of 10 minutes → the stop of the block; per week: (u) − 20%, time − 20%.
Twice "almost bonus" → "I'm close": tag NEAR, pause; the rate does not change.
Late night → "a little more": stop time is valid; it works - close the session and sleep.
11) Short Mythbuster
"If it is, the risk is lower. "- Previous probabilities; only turnover and variance are higher.
"I haven't given for a long time - I have to give it back. "- Tests are independent.
"Almost - so soon. "- Near miss elevates emotion, not EV.
"I'll fight back quickly - it will get easier. "- This is a tilt; the price per minute of the game is increasing.
12) The bottom line
Excitement is a powerful motivator, but a poor risk advisor. It highlights rare good luck and hides base frequencies, making you overestimate the chance and underestimate the cost of an error. Return sobriety strict rules before the start, filters in the moment, pauses and honest accounting. With this architecture, emotions remain vivid and decisions rational and predictable in risk and money.