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Why players overestimate luck
1) Short answer
Players overestimate luck, because the brain "loves" bright rare events and does not feel statistics well: we remember drifts and "almost," forget long minus sections, look for patterns in chance and attribute success to ourselves, and failures to circumstances. Against this background, any series easily seems like "talent" or "luck," although more often it is dispersion.
2) Key cognitive biases
1. Gambler's Fallacy. After a series of setbacks, it seems that "should be lucky now." In independent events, the probability does not change.
2. Hot hand effect. A series of winnings is interpreted as "form," although in a random environment, series are inevitable and do not predict anything.
3. Offset to bright and recent (availability & recency). A large fresh gain overlaps the routine of losses in memory.
4. Confirmatory distortion. We notice hits of "flair," ignore misses - the seeming "luck" is growing.
5. Illusion of control. Rituals, "timing spin," line choice are attributed to the result where chance rules.
6. Survivor displacement. We see the winners and stories of luck, we do not see a lot of those who are unlucky.
7. Regression to average. Bursts naturally give way to the norm; the player perceives the decline as "unlucky this time" rather than a statistical return to expectation.
8. Base rates ignored. RTP/market margin is supplanted by the "feeling" that personal experience is "more important than mathematics."
9. The effect "almost won." Losing is experienced as "almost success," increasing the confidence of "I am close, a little more - and it will pass."
3) Mathematical background of "luck reassessment"
Variance> intuitions. At a short distance, the spread of results is huge; even with a negative EV, it is easy to catch a "beautiful" plus. The brain falsely infers that it is "my luck/skill."
Thick tails. Rare large payouts take up a disproportionate amount of memory space and introduce strong noise into period ROI.
Small samples. The smaller the N, the greater the probability of extreme deviations. Intuition "averages" too quickly.
4) Psychological attribution: "I am the reason for success"
People tend to attribute success to themselves (skill, intuition), and failure to external factors (bad luck, "the bookmaker cut the coefficient," "the slot was cold"). Such asymmetry fuels the myth of "personal luck," raising the risk of overcharging and breaking limits.
5) Marketing and design that reinforce the illusion of luck
Dramaturgy of events: fireworks, sounds, progress counters "highlight" rare successes more than frequent minor cons.
Winner tapes/chats: create the feeling that "everyone around is lucky - soon me too."
Mechanics near miss: show "almost" more often than intuition expects, fanning the sense of intimacy of luck at the same RTP.
6) Player luck overestimation symptoms
The increase in the rate "because it went" or "will definitely give now."
Confidence in the series and ignoring stop rules ("I'm in shape").
Replacing planned pauses with "a few more backs."
Selective memory: a detailed story about drifts, a nebula for losses and turnover.
7) How to regain sobriety: tools and frameworks
7. 1. Return to base frequencies
Slots: HE = 1 − RTP. For example, RTP 96% → expect − 4% of turnover over a long distance (before promo).
Bets: Compare your probability score to a factor, factor in commission/margin; without a positive EV, "luck" is noise.
7. 2. Accounting and calibration of expectations
Keep a log: date, game/market, bet, turnover, total, promo, time.
Add tags of emotions (euphoria/irritation) and near miss - you will see where errors are growing.
Calibrate probabilities (if you make predictions): group rates according to the declared probability (50-60%, 60-70%, etc.) and check how often they really come in (calibration bins, Brier score). Uncalibrated "confidence" = hidden reassessment of luck.
7. 3. Limits independent of "luck"
Stop loss per session = 1-2 × of expected "turnover value."
Time limit (45-60 minutes) and pause rule of 5-10 minutes after emotion peaks/" almost."
The rate corridor ± 10-15% of the base u, it can change according to plan, and not "by luck."
With a positive EV (rarely) - the share from Kelly ⅓ is ½, otherwise the overbet will "eat" the advantage.
7. 4. Anti-errors "in fields"
Prohibition on doubling the bet after a series of winnings/" almost."
Shift turnover to games/markets with the best HE (_\text{eff}) (RTP + cashback/rackback).
Record the results before and after emotional outbursts - if the "after" is worse, add pauses and squeeze the limits.
8) Mini-protocol "Cold Head"
1. Before the start: goal (time/wager/entertainment), u, N, stop loss, time limit, pause rules.
2. In the game: do not change the limits "because of luck," fix "almost" and emotions.
3. After: check the actual cost of sales and Net ROI against the model; if "luck" has become an argument for an increase in risk - reduce the rate/frequency.
9) Frequent myths - and short answers
"I'm in the series - you have to push." - Series are normal in randomness; tomorrow regression to the average.
"Often almost - will soon give." - No, events are independent; near miss does not change EV.
"I'm usually lucky in this slot/in this league." - Check log and CI for ROI: without statistical significance, this is selective memory.
"If raised, then skill." - At low, N plus can be pure noise.
10) The bottom line
Luck reassessment is a combination of human memory, pattern finding in noise and design that emphasizes rare successes. Medicine - numbers and frames: base frequencies, transparent accounting, calibration, hard limits and pauses. With them, luck remains what it is - an accidental guest, and not a reason to change mathematics and risk the bank.