Case: how winning helped start your own business

A big win is not only emotions, but also a financial fork. One player (let's call him Alexey) instead of "expensive toys" chose the path of an entrepreneur. Below is an anonymized case: how to make a working business out of sudden capital without illusions and "magical thinking."

Case Input

Winnings (net after casino fees): $420,000

Country of residence: conditionally - EU (tax rules differ by country; we take a general approach)

Purpose: to open a small craft bakery-coffee shop in a residential area of the city (offline + pre-orders online)

Planning horizon: 12 months, start-up - within 6-7 months

Principles: safety, transparency, conservative assumptions, risk sharing

Step 1. Correct winnings (Week 0-2)

What they did:

1. We collected evidence of the win: the history of the rounds (Round ID, time), the payment check at the casino cashier (Processed), a letter from the support.

2. KYC/AML: profile was approved in advance; upon request - provided documents on the origin of funds (SoF).

3. Bank: the compliance department was warned about a large incoming payment; opened a separate account for the "project capital."

4. Taxes and lawyer: consultation with a tax consultant - immediately pledged reserves for tax/contributions.

Win distribution (primary):

30% - tax reserve (isolated account)
25% - airbag (12-18 months of out-of-pocket expenses)
30% - launch capital (CAPEX + turnover)
10% - liquid project reserve (untouchable)
5% - long-term investments (index instruments; do not touch)

💡 Key: we do not mix money "for life," "for tax" and "for business."

Step 2. Model Selection and Demand Funnel (Week 2-4)

Why a coffee shop bakery:

High daily repeatability of demand (bread, coffee, pastries), Low check → fast turnover, Local loyalty of the area, Combination of offline (showcase) and online (pre-orders/pickup).

Demand hypotheses (MVP level):

Pre-orders through instant messengers and a simple LP page, Morning peak 7: 30-10: 00, evening - 17: 00-19: 30, "Key magnets": sourdough bread, croissants, filter coffee to-go.

Step 3. Legal entity, cash desk, contracts (Month 1)

LLC/FLP registration (depends on the country), Business current account, acquiring, online cash desk, fiscal printer, Lease agreement for 12 months with an extension option, "vacation" for repairs, Sanitary permits, HACR/analogue, fire safety, Contracts with suppliers (flour, oil, coffee, packaging), SLA for terms.

Step 4. Finmodel and Budget (Month 1-2)

Starting investments (CAPEX), rounded:

Repairs and ventilation: $38,000
Equipment (oven, spacer, refrigerators, coffee machine, mill): $92,000
Furniture/Display/POS/Cameras: $18,000
Recruiting/Training/Uniform: $7,000
Initial raw material and packaging purchases: $9,000
Contingency (10%): $16,000
Total CAPEX: $180,000

Operating system (OPEX), months:

Rent + communal: $6,200
Payroll (bakers × 2, barista × 3, admin × 0.5): $18,500 (incl. Taxes/Contributions)
Raw materials (COGS): ≈32 -35% of revenue
Marketing/SMM/Photo/Shipping: $2,000
Other (chemistry, single-use containers, service): $1,800

Working capital (3 months OPEX without COGS): ~ $84,000

💡 From the "launch capital" ($126,000 after the part of CAPEX paid from the prize), the missing part was closed due to the distribution of CAPEX by stages and deliveries "on order."

Step 5. Unit economics (conservative model)

Average daily check flow (month 3 +):

Morning: 180 checks × $4.6 = $828
Day: 90 checks × $5.2 = $468
Evening: 120 checks × $6.1 = $732
Revenue/day: ~ $2,028 → $60-65 thousand/month (including weekends and seasonality)

Structure:

COGS 34% → $20-22K
Gross margin ~ 66% → $40-43 thousand.
Fixed costs (rent, payroll, marketing, etc.) ~ $28-30 thousand.
Operating profit (before tax): $10-12 thousand/month. at flow stabilization

Break-even point: ~ $48-50 thousand/month revenues

CAPEX payback: 18-22 months (with rhythm and without aggressive expansion)

Step 6. Marketing & Launch (Month 2-4)

Soft-open 10 days: feedback collection, menu adjustment, photo content.

Local offline activations: contract with neighboring offices/schools for morning sets.

Online funnel: LP on the constructor + pre-order button, catalog in the messenger, basic targets with a radius of 1.5 km.

UGC and community: "registered bread" cards, "coffee of the month," loyalty program (stickers/QR).

Step 7. Alexey's personal financial protocol

1. The personal budget is separated: the founder's salary is fixed and modest for the first 6-9 months.

2. Cash-outs from the business are banned until the accumulation of a 3-month "business cushion."

3. Monthly reporting: P&L, Cash Flow, inventory, write-offs, inventories.

4. Risks are insured: property, liability, downtime of equipment.

5. Diversification: Some of the winnings remained in passive instruments - "not all eggs in one basket."

90-day road map

Day 1-10: final consultation on taxes, reservation, bank notification, formation of a folder of "evidence of winnings."

Day 11-30: legal entity, account, rent, technical project, pre-orders from suppliers.

Day 31-60: repair/ventilation, ordering and installation of equipment, hiring and training.

Day 61-75: soft-open, quality checklist, formulation tests, LP/acquiring/delivery setup.

Day 76-90: official launch, local PR, corporate breakfast contracts, first inventory and procurement adjustment.

Communication with the bank and the state

Bank: we submit in advance a package of documents on the origin of funds (copies of payment checks, statements, contracts, tax plan).

Taxes: StoIt reserve separately; if necessary - advance payments/declarations.

Ledger/ERP: all receipts and expenses are transparent; salary "in white."

What went wrong (and how it was corrected)

Overheating of demand at the weekend → the queue: they introduced pre-order for "hit positions" and early pickup.

Increase in purchase prices: recalculated recipes, introduced a "menu of the day," concluded an add. contract with a local miller.

Barista overload in the morning: introduced "prepaid sets" (coffee + croissant) with cash-free delivery.

How not to lose a win at the launch stage - checklist

Split invoices: taxes/personal/business/project reserve.

Immediately make a financial model with pessimistic scenarios (-15% of revenue, + 10% COGS).

Hedge CAPEX by time (part of equipment - leasing, part - used from proven suppliers).

Keep a weekly dashboard: revenue, average check, gross margin, write-offs, NPS.

Document everything: contracts, acts, photographs of the stages of repair - this is "armor" in case of disputes.

Alternatives (if not offline)

Online retail/dark kitchen: below CAPEX, higher dependence on logistics and platforms.

Franchise: faster to launch, but royalties + less flexibility.

Service business (SaaS/content studio): low CAPEX, focus on competencies and sales.

Alexey did not become an "inspiration investor" - he turned a one-time win into structured capital and a business that feeds the family and the neighboring area. The secret is not in "charged kurasans," but in discipline: tax reserve → pillow → financial model → legal purity → transparent operating system. Winning is a chance. Business is a system. Connect them correctly - and the emotion from the casino will turn into a steady cash flow, and not into another beautiful story with a sad ending.