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Cognitive biases and "feelings of luck"
"Today is my day" is a familiar thought? This is not mysticism, but the work of heuristics: quick mental contractions that help save effort, but in a world of accidents they are often taken aside. Let's analyze the main distortions that create a "sense of luck," and the tools that return sobriety - for players and operators.
1) Map of the phenomenon: from heuristic to emotion "lucky"
Heuristics turn complex probability into simple "feels like...."
Sensory and rhythm (sound, animation, tempo) increase excitation → PFC control is weaker.
Reward prediction error (RPE) trains the brain to respond to rare "sparks" (wins, near-miss) rather than long zeros.
Bottom line: subjective probability seems higher than objective, a "taste of luck" appears.
2) Top 12 distortions that fuel "luck" (briefly and with antidote)
1. Gumbler error - after a series of failures "should be lucky."
Antidote: rounds are independent; write the rule "next attempt = same p."
2. Hot hand - "I'm in shape, I need to raise the rate."
Antidote: seriality - normal noise; follow the betting plan.
3. The illusion of control is "I increase the chance with a button/ritual."
Antidote: I control the pace and budget, not the RNG.
4. Accessibility effect - remember bright winnings, forget thousands of empty ones.
Antidote: diary of facts (time, ± amount, emotion).
5. Neglect of base frequencies - "a friend has a → high chance."
Antidote: we look at the overall probability, not the stories of the survivors.
6. Framing - "1 in 1000" vs "every thousand someone wins."
Antidote: conversion to frequencies per unit time/attempts.
7. Sunk cost - "invested so much - you can't throw."
Antidote: past spending = irrevocable; decision on the plan, not on "pity."
8. House money - "strangers" (bonus/win) are spent more boldly.
Antidote: same limits for "cache" and bonuses.
9. Overconfidence - "I understand the game better than others."
Antidote: blind spots are normal; plan> sense of expertise.
10. Confirmation bias - I notice confirmation of "luck," ignore the opposite.
Antidote: we count all outcomes, not selective ones.
11. Near-miss effect - "almost hit → again."
Antidote: "almost is a loss; the chance did not grow."
12. Lottery utility - small p's are overrated.
Antidote: show EV and alternative time/money wasting.
3) Mini maths that's sobering
Expected value (EV):[
EV = \sum p_i \cdot v_i - \text{cost}
]If EV <0, the "long game" pulls to the minus even with rare successes.
Low probabilities: subjective (w (p))> p for small p → lottery revaluation.
Law of large numbers: series - noise; in the long horizon, the average stretches towards the EV.
4) Practices for player: 10-minute set
Before the game (1 min):- Intention: "entertainment, not earnings."
- Limits: session 15-30 min, budget € __, Stop-loss X/Stop-win Y.
- Pause 60-90 seconds: "there is an impulse to catch up/I "in the form of"? → stop."
- Diary 3 lines: time, ± amount, emotion (1-10).
- If irritation/dogon - time-out 24 h and reduction of limits.
- "Almost ≠ victory. The next p has not changed."
- "The plan is more important than the momentum. I control the tempo and the budget, not a chance."
5) Honest product patterns (to operators)
Transparency of probabilities: simple tula "as considered" next to buttons; bonuses in € equivalent ("FS 10 × €0.10 = €1; vager × 15; will burn in 72 hours").
Neutral near-miss: no "victory" sound; signature "almost a loss."
One goal per screen, "how much is left" in minutes/rounds, is not just points.
Timeboxes 15-20 min + "breathing windows" 30-60 min, pause does not reset missions/leaderboards.
RG default: deposit/loss/time limits in 1-2 clicks, time-out/self-exclusion, quiet hours, suppression promo on pause/hard limits.
Pressure-free language: "Take a break?" instead of "Don't miss a chance! ».
6) UX microtexts (ready to insert)
"The outcome is determined by the RNG. You manage the pace and budget, not the chance of falling out"
"Almost-winning is losing. The probability of the next outcome did not change"
"Today spent €12/€ 30 from the entertainment budget. Do you want to set a daily limit?
"You are in the game for 20 minutes. A short break will save the progress of the mission."
7) Metrics and A/B ideas (with gardrails)
Watch daily: Early-exit ≤5 min, attempts "after near-miss," complaints/1k, CTR tips "as considered," share of players with limits, Δ ARPPU (net), Prize & Bonus/Active, share of "overheated" patterns (night marathons/dogon).
Experiments:- Info-tool near-miss on/off → dogon-rate, complaints/1k.
- "Chance text" vs "chance + visual example 1/1000" → understanding/tickets.
- € equivalent to bonus on/off → breakage, complaints, Δ ARPPU (net).
- Timebox 15 vs 20 min; cool-off 30 vs 60 min → retention/complaints.
Guardrails: SRM, fraud-flags, RG incidents - auto-stop.
8) Checklist for player (daily)
- Money/time limits included; Stop-loss/Stop-win recorded.
- Timer 15-30 min and quiet hours are active.
- After near-miss - a pause of 60 seconds, a reminder: "p has not changed."
- Bonuses transferred to €; conditions read.
- Diary line 3 is full.
9) Mini Case (Synthetic)
Before: winning sound on near-miss, no tula "as considered," bonuses without € equivalent. Complaints/1k - 8. 0, dogon-rate high.
After: neutral near-miss, odds info-tables, bonus cards with € and term, timeboxes + quiet hours, 1 click limits.
8 weeks, holdout 15%: complaints/1k − 29%, dogon rate − 18%, share of players with limits + 15 pp, Retention L30 + 2. 1 pp, Δ ARPPU (net) is stable, the share of "overheated" patterns − 10%.
"Sense of Luck" is a byproduct of fast heuristics, bright "spark events" and sensory rhythm. It is not bad in itself - the confusion between sensation and probability is bad. Regain control with limits, timers, diary and honest information; design interfaces without disguising losses as victories. Then the emotion will remain, and the decisions will become adults.