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Basketball Betting - Tips and Analytics
Basketball is a sport of big numbers: dozens of possessions, hundreds of shots and quick market reactions. This is both a plus (less "pure chance" than in low-yield forms) and a risk (the line quickly "eats up" the news). Your advantage is built on two things: (1) being able to translate context into tempo/efficiency, (2) discipline in the bank, and betting frequency.
1) Analytics base: ownership, pace and "4 factors"
1. 1. Possessions and pace
Possessions assessment:[
\text{Poss} \approx 0{,}5 \times \Big((\text{FGA} + 0{,}44 \times \text{FTA} - \text{ORB} + \text{TOV})\text{A} + (\ldots)\text{B}\Big)
]Pace - possessions in 48/40 minutes (NBA/Euroleague). The higher the pace, the naturally higher the totals and the likelihood of "shootings."
1. 2. "4 Factors" (Dean Oliver)
eFG% (effective percentage) takes into account three-pointers: more important than "raw" accuracy.
TOV% - loss of ownership; TOV% growth slows down the total and breaks the favorite odds.
ORB% - selection on someone else's shield; gives "second-chances" → extra points.
FTr (Free Throw Rate) - free throws; referees and contact style change the game.
The idea: total ≈ ownership × average performance per possession. Odds ≈ efficiency difference adjusted for pace and match-up.
2) Quality of throws and protective schemes
2. 1. Shot profile
Rim/paint fractions, mid range, 3PT and accuracy per zone.
Expected eFG (xEFG) based on the quality of throws: if the actual 3PT% is long higher than expected, wait for the regression.
2. 2. Schemes and match-ups
Peak and roll (PnR) coverage: drop/switch/hedge/blitz.
Against drop - more free mid-rangers/pool-ups; vs. switch - miss matches on post.
Arc defense: a team that gives a lot of open 3P "inflates" totals against elite shooters.
Without the "rim-protector," the opponent's eFG grows at the ring → totals/ITB.
3) Schedule, height and judging
Back-to-back/3-for-4/4-for-6: fatigue = minus the legs of shooters, more fouls in defense → sometimes it is TM (accuracy drops), sometimes TB (fouls/penalties grow).
Height/flights: platforms at height and long road trips enhance the fatigue and pace factor.
Judges: "generous" to whistle → the growth of FTr and totals; "hard" to contacts - fouls in "thin" rotation, quick problems with fouls in key ones.
4) Mini model of total and odds (prematch)
4. 1. Total "on a napkin"
1. Rate the possessions: average pace of both teams, adjusted for match-up style.
2. Take OffRtg (points per 100 possessions) of both teams and average taking into account the opponent's defense.
3. Expected total:[
\text{Total} \approx \text{Poss} \times \frac{\text{OffRtg}_A + \text{OffRtg}_B}{100}
]4. Add amendments: FTr (referees/match-up), ORB% imbalance, shooter/rome defender injuries.
4. 2. Odds
1. Net Rating expected: (\text {OffRtg} _ A -\text {DefRtg} _ B) and vice versa.
2. Convert the difference to points per game by multiplying by the estimated possessions/100.
3. Consider the home factor and schedule.
5) Live betting: what really works
Fouls and rotation: early 2 fouls at the key "big" → falls rim-defense → eFG opponent up → ITB opponent/match.
The pace does not coincide with the expectation: if for 8-10 minutes of possession/min above the seasonal norm of both - a reason to watch TB (with adequate accuracy).
Three-point variance: the leader hit 8/12 due to the "hot streak," but the quality of shots is average - TM in the 2nd half/catching up handicap.
Changing the protective scheme: the transition to zone/switch-everything breaks the usual patterns - react while the market is "recalculating."
6) Player Prop Markets: Minutes, Usage and Role
Minutes is king. Any prop begins with the probability of playing X minutes (role and rotation).
Usage% / Touches / Potential Assists / Rebound Chances. Predictors of points/assists/rebounds are better than "raw" averages.
Match-up: a small "five" opponent → the chances of rebounds to your "big"; slow "paint" → fewer assists to carpenters.
Fouls/umpires: Foul-prone player vs "driving" star + "generous" umpires - risk minutes short.
7) Euroleague vs NBA: what to consider
The pace is lower and the dispersion of totals is less in the Euroleague; the value of match-ups and coaching schemes is higher.
Line width: In the N.B.A., markets are deeper and faster on news; in the Euroleague, "soft" places on rotation/referees/play-book are more common.
The home factor is stronger in the Euroleague (logistics, refereeing style, halls).
8) Bank management and frequent errors
Flat 0.5-1.5% of bankroll on rate. Paul Kelly - only with proven calibration.
Do not average down "by emotion." Live addition is acceptable if ownership/role/fouls have changed modelly.
Beware of the "hot hand." Three-points quickly roll back to the expected quality.
Do not transfer splits without context. Home/away, opponent scheme and umpires change shot profile.
9) Pre-game checklists
Prematch
- Key status: do the main point guard/rim protector/shooters play
- Rated pace and possessions (match-up adjusted)
- Checked Off/DefRtg taking into account the opponent
- Judges and FTr splits accounted for
- Schedule: b2b, 3-for-4, height, road trip
- There is an explainable value (where exactly the market got it wrong)
Live
- Early fouls/injuries → impact on minutes and ring protection
- Actual tempo vs expectation
- Quality of 3PT (created open vs "hit lines")
- Scheme change (zone/switch) and opponent reaction
10) Example "before/after" of one idea
To: "Both high-speed - I take TB."
After:- Pace is high in both, but one team in b2b, the second with an elite rim defender and low FTr in the opponent.
- The judges are "cold" for fouls; ORB% favorite below average rival.
- The updated calculation gives ownership below the market and eFG under the pressure of rim protection → TM or prop "lower" for a weakly attacking center.
In basketball, the winner is the one who turns context into numbers: pace → possession, "4 factors →" efficiency, schedule and referees → free throws and fouls, schemes → quality of shots. Combine this into a simple total/head model, add discipline in the bank and clear live triggers - and you have a stable way to find value, and not just "catch shootouts."