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How the system of parle and combined rates works
Combined bets are a way to combine multiple outcomes into a single coupon for a larger potential payoff. The main thing is to understand how the price is formed, where the margin is hidden and why the risks are growing. Let's figure it out in order.
1) Basic terms
Parlay/Accumulator: 2 + outcomes in one coupon. To win, all legs must go in. The payout is considered a multiplication of decimal factors.
System rates: a set of all (or part of) combinations from selected events. Allows you to win partially (not all legs must go).
Round Robin: automatic assembly of the express train "package" (doubles/tees, etc.) from the selection list.
SGP/Bet Builder: single game, multiple linked markets (e.g. "home win + total goals + player goal"). Price takes into account correlations.
Teaser: Popular in American sports - you "shift" the head start/total to the advantageous side, receiving a lower payment.
2) As they say parle (mathematics)
The formula for decimal factors is: If the legs have coefficients (d_1, d_2,..., d_n), then the express:[
D_{\text{parlay}} = \prod_{i=1}^{n} d_i
][
\text{EV} = S \cdot \left(\left(\prod_{i=1}^{n} p_i\right) \cdot D_{\text{parlay}} - 1\right)
]- Leg A: 1. 80
- Leg B: 2. 10
- Then (D = 1. 80 \times 2. 10 = 3. 78).
If your real probabilities: (p_A=0. 60), (p_B=0. 50) → (p_A \cdot p_B = 0. 30).
Rate (S = 100):- Entry gain: return 378, gain + 278.
- EV: (100 \cdot (0. 30 \cdot 3. 78 - 1) = 100 \cdot (1. 134 - 1) = +13. 4).
- EV1: (50 \cdot (0. 60 \cdot 1. 80 - 1) = +4. 0).
- EV2: (50 \cdot (0. 50 \cdot 2. 10 - 1) = +2. 5).
- Total singles: + 6. 5 vs. + 13. 4 in Parle, but the risk/variance is higher (see below).
3) Dispersion: why express trains "hit harder"
The distribution of results in the parle is "tougher":- Probability of complete loss = (1 -\prod p_i). In the example: 70%.
- Profit when winning is large, but happens less often.
- 30% both legs won → + 95
- 30% won only A → − 10
- 20% won only B → + 5
- 20% both lost → − 100
- Expected + 6. 5, but the chances of losing everything are less than that of the express train. Bottom line: Parle heightens bank volatility.
4) Correlations: where the real price is "hidden"
The legs of one game are often related (correlated):- "Team victory" + "total more";
- "Goal of a specific player" + "victory of his team";
- "Fora − 3. 5" and "total is greater" in high-tempo basketball.
- The bookmaker will not allow multiplying independent prices - SGP/bet-builder will recalculate the correlated probability and reduce the final coefficient. Some ligaments are prohibited.
5) System bets (winning - even if not everything went in)
Classic sets (excluding singles):- Trixie (3 events): 3 doubles + 1 tee = 4 stakes.
- Yankee (4): 6 doubles + 4 tees + 1 express-4 = 11.
- Canadian / Super Yankee (5): 26.
- Heinz (6): 57.
- Goliath (8): 247.
Lucky variants add single ones (for example, Lucky 15 for 4 events).
Plus: higher chance of partial payment. Minus: many "lines" - the overall risk/expense is growing.
6) Round Robin
You select 3-8 outcomes, the system automatically collects packages of express trains of fixed depth (for example, all doubles and tees). Convenient for distributing risk and finding "sweet" ligaments without manual search.
7) Teasers
In American leagues (NFL, NBA): you shift the line to a comfortable side (for example, + 6 points), but the final coefficient is lower than the standard parle. Compensation for the "best" line number is the part of the payment that you give.
8) Fluffs, returns and void in combos
Push (draw along the line): Most often, the corresponding leg on the express train is "thrown away," and the coupon is recalculated as a smaller express train.
Void: canceled match/market → similar to push.
Dead Heat: specific sports/markets - the formula for dividing the share of winnings (rules for the operator) is applied.
Different rules for sports: specify the calculation (OT/shootouts in hockey, tie-breaks in tennis, etc.).
9) Margin and "compound" (why the house wins more often)
Each single coefficient carries an embedded margin (around). In the steam, this margin is multiplied. If you do not find a real value for each leg (your probabilities are higher than market ones), the express will be mathematically more unprofitable than single ones.
10) Cashout in combo
The operator can offer cashout/partial during matches. The cashout price takes into account current lines and margins. It's a risk management tool (fix part), but remember: "insurance" costs money.
11) Practice: When the Parle is acquitted
You have several independent value legs (according to your model) → express can raise EV.
High volatility budget: Ready for long runs with no wins.
Mix with systems: part of the bank - on combos, part - on single ones to smooth out the risk.
When is better single:- Legs are weak/borderline;
- High correlation between markets (SGP has already "eaten" the price);
- You protect the bank from drawdowns.
12) Mini jar cheat sheet
Flat rate: fixed% of the bank (e.g. 0. 5-1% on singles, 0. 25–0. 5% on express trains).
Kelly shares: if you consider EV> 0, use a fraction (¼ - ½ Kelly) - express trains are highly volatile.
Default limits: daily stop loss/profit, weekly ceilings.
Betting log: reason for choosing each leg, price, line movement (CLV), total.
13) Frequent errors
Multiplication "by sensation." There is no independence → the real price is lower.
Overexpresses for the sake of "cosmic" gain. Correlation × margin × variance.
Ignoring calculation rules. OT/shootouts, dead heat, push, carry - everything is important.
Bankroll without a "pillow." Express trains require smaller shares from the bank.
14) Quick checklist before making combos
1. Legs independent? (If not, SGP has already considered the correlation in price.)
2. Do you have a value for each leg according to your model?
3. Do you understand the calculation rules (push/void/OT/tiebreak)?
4. Does the size of the bet match the volatility of the combo?
5. Ready for cashout plan (if available)?
Parle and combined bets are a powerful winning tool with correct pricing and discipline. Their essence is the multiplication of prices and risks. If you know how to find independent value legs, correctly dose the bank and understand the calculation rules, the combo can work for you. In all other cases, it is safer and more profitable to stay on singles - they forgive more mistakes and keep drawdowns better.